Oscars

NOMINEES

Josh Brolin – Milk

Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt

Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road

WILL WIN

It’s perhaps the most relevant question of the 2008 Oscars: Does anyone have a chance to beat Heath Ledger?

There are a few potential answers to this question. The most direct – also the most accurate and the most important – can be condensed to one word: no. The more pompous answer goes something along the lines of, “The only person who can beat Heath Ledger is Heath Ledger,” a line of reasoning that vaguely and counterintuitively refers to the inescapable fact that Heath Ledger is dead. This is, of course, an unfortunate fact, but also sad is that Ledger’s death has become inextricable from his actual performance. Part of this is the nature of modern American publicity, while part is tied to the unnerving creepiness of the performance itself – his character The Joker is at once a casual dispenser of death and twisted philosopher of it – but no Academy member will look at the role and see only the acting. Their judgment will be affected, to some degree, by the tragic circumstances of Ledger’s demise. Read More

NOMINEES

Changeling – Tom Stern

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Claudio Miranda

The Dark Knight – Wally Pfister

The Reader – Chris Menges, Roger Deakins

Slumdog Millionaire – Anthony Dod Mantle

WILL WIN

Working backwards will only get us so far here, as the lone movie I’m comfortable eliminating right off the bat is The Reader – if it wins this category, Harvey Weinstein truly is Satan. I’m not quite as confident crossing off Changeling, mainly because it’s such an impeccably photographed motion picture, but there’s so little buzz surrounding Eastwood’s movie that I can’t see it pulling an upset. Read More

NOMINEES

Slumdog Millionaire – “Jai Ho” (A.R. Rahman, lyrics by Gulzar)

Slumdog Millionaire – “O … Saya” (A.R. Rahman, featuring M.I.A.)

Wall-E – “Down to Earth” (Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman)

WILL WIN

It’s quite surprising that only three pieces of music received nominations here, since the Best Original Song category has always supplied the Academy an opportunity to feed its own self-indulgence. Every year people complain – usually with cause – about the bloated length of the Oscar telecast, and one of the more obnoxious segments involves the live performances of each nominated work in the Original Song category. So, unlike the Best Visual Effects category, slicing the number of contending songs from five to three may not have been a bad thing. Sure, there have been some enjoyable moments over the past decade – Robin William’s flamboyant rendition of South Park’s “Blame Canada”, Three 6 Mafia’s unadulterated enthusiasm in performing “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp”, Bjork’s unbelievably horrendous swan dress – but for the most part the live performances are a narcoleptic’s paradise. Read More

Editing may officially be viewed as a technical category, but it’s an important one. Two of a movie’s most important characteristics – namely clarity (can viewers clearly comprehend the on-screen proceedings?) and pace (are those proceedings taking place at a brisk but unhurried clip?) – are directly related to the quality of the editing. Nominations for Best Picture and Best Editing tend to coincide, and with good reason: Editing, like Ron Burgundy, is kind of a big deal.

NOMINEES

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

The Dark Knight – Lee Smith

Frost/Nixon – Mike Hill, Daniel P. Hanley

Milk – Elliot Graham Slumdog

Millionaire – Chris Dickens

WILL WIN

It’s interesting that this quintet comprises what were the initial favorites for Best Picture going into the nominations, with The Dark Knight replacing The Reader. Since the superhero receives special acknowledgement here, the category seems to be a race between The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire, with the latter acting as the Best Picture frontrunner (at least for the moment). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is building some overall momentum, but at nearly three hours it’s too long to contend for an editing Oscar, while voters will likely appreciate Frost/Nixon and Milk more for their acting and historical relevance. Read More

After examining the Best Visual Effects field two days ago, it’s time to switch it up to one of the sexier categories and break down Best Supporting Actress. Although frankly I think Best Visual Effects is a more important category, cinematically speaking, but never mind. Let’s get to it.

NOMINEES

Amy Adams – Doubt

Penélope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis – Doubt

Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

WILL WIN

This one was supposed to be easy, only then Harvey Weinstein got involved (yes, again). Not satisfied with landing a Best Picture nomination for The Reader at the expense of rival producer Scott Rudin’s Revolutionary Road, Weinstein bullied voters into nominating Kate Winslet as lead actress for The Reader, which they did at the expense of, that’s right, Revolutionary Road (Winslet had been pegged for a nomination for Rudin’s film in the lead actress category). To be fair, it was the correct call in addition to the politically savvy one, as Winslet is clearly the star of The Reader, no matter how debonair Ralph Fiennes looks. Unfortunately, whereas Best Supporting Actress would have been a gimme had Winslet appeared here, her departure leaves the category completely wide open. Awesome. Read More