March Madness 2013

There’s a moving scene in the first season of “The West Wing” in which Toby convinces President Bartlet to cut from his State of the Union Address a line that reads, “The era of big government is over.” Toby admits that it’s a catchy slogan that will give Bartlet a bump in the polls, but he’s sickened at the thought of disparaging the federal machine solely to score political points. “Government can be a place where people come together and where no one gets left behind,” he pleads, and as string music swells to support the truth of his words, Bartlet turns to Josh Lyman and asks him what he thinks. Josh considers briefly, then answers, “I make it a point never to disagree with Toby when he’s right.”

March Madness, too, is a place where (or at least a time when) people come together. Pools are illegally filled out, Internet traffic booms, productivity stalls, and across the nation the conversation turns to whether Gonzaga really deserved a #1 seed, or whether Bucknell can flip the script on Butler. But while the era of big government may not be over, the era of top-tier dominance in college basketball is assuredly extinct. With the game’s most talented players fleeing for the NBA after a single season, collegiate teams struggle to build any sort of chemistry, as frustrated coaches ultimately allow scheme and strategy to yield to on-floor talent. (This also might explain why most close games are invariably decided by either (a) free-throw shooting, or (b) a final possession in which the team’s best player dribbles for 25 seconds, then heaves up a step-back, off-balance three-pointer.) Setting aside Gonzaga (a team with its own unique set of question marks), every legitimate contender for the 2013 title has lost at least five games. There’s just no such thing as an elite team anymore. Read More

Oscars Analysis 2012: Show recap

Writing a post-Oscars recap always feels a bit odd, as the Manifesto’s area of expertise is not the telecast itself. (Of course, given the success rate of my predictions this year, it’s questionable whether the Manifesto has any area of expertise. No matter.) So if you’re looking for analysis on just how adorable Quvenzhané Wallis looked, or whether Kristen Stewart was hammered (nope, she just had a broken foot), or the awesomeness of Anne Hathaway’s nipples, you’ll find plenty of fodder elsewhere on the web.

I do, however, want to comment briefly on Seth MacFarlane’s turn as host. From the beginning, MacFarlane made it clear that he knew he was an outsider (“It’s an honor that everyone else said no”), and a prolonged skit with William Shatner – partly painful, partly very funny, particularly the “Flight in sock puppets” bit – instantly established his sheepish, near-apologetic demeanor. In the era of instant micro-analysis and trends on Twitter, where a rabid online audience will ravenously seize on the latest mishap or malfunction, the hosting gig at the Oscars is virtually predetermined for failure. MacFarlane seemed amusingly resigned to that fate from the get-go, with Shatner displaying fake screenshots from the future that read, “MacFarlane worst Oscar host ever”. It’s the sort of self-insulating shtick that can come off as preemptively defensive, but it showcased a cute self-awareness in which MacFarlane acknowledged that he was swimming over his head. Read More

Oscars Analysis 2012: Prediction roundup

For your annotated pleasure, below are the Manifesto’s official predictions for the 85th Academy Awards. I strongly recommend printing the list out and following it while watching tonight’s telecast – it will allow you to make fun of me that much more quickly when these predictions turn to dust.

One note: I’m changing my prediction for Best Adapted Screenplay from Lincoln to Argo. I made my initial pick way back on January 27, just after Argo had won at the Producers’ Guild and before its momentum really got rolling. Since then, the movie has cleaned up everything in sight, including a critical win with the Writers’ Guild, which has correctly forecast seven of the past eight Oscar winners for Best Adapted Screenplay. I still think Tony Kushner’s more visible screenwriting has a chance to take home the gold, but I’d be foolish not to back Argo at this point.

On to the picks, organized by level of confidence. Remember, I’m omitting the three short categories because I’m as knowledgeable about them as I am about cooking. Read More

Oscars Analysis 2012: Best Director

The last time this category was even moderately exciting was in 2004, when Clint Eastwood won for Million Dollar Baby and held off Martin Scorsese for The Aviator, followed by Eastwood gunning down Scorsese outside a rain-soaked saloon and gravely intoning, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it”. Here’s to some actual suspense for once.

NOMINEES
Michael Haneke – Amour
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild Read More