MovieManifesto

Across the Universe* – Albert Wolsky

Atonement – Jacqueline Durran

Elizabeth: The Golden Age – Alexandra Byrne

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street – Colleen Atwood

La Vie en Rose – Marit Allen

Will win: Hey, a category Atonement might actually win! Nothing’s certain though. I don’t think Across the Universe poses much of a threat, since the movie was so brutally panned that I bet a significant number of voters skipped it, but everything else remains in contention. Elizabeth: The Golden Age is one of those dratted Victorian era pieces (wait, that’s probably the Elizabethan era) that always fare well at the Oscars (recent winners in Costume Design have included Topsy-Turvy, Shakespeare in Love, and Restoration). La Vie en Rose is one of those wretched biopics that’s allegedly infused with authenticity – they’re always dangerous here. And Sweeney Todd has such a great overall look that voters might translate that into a high opinion of the movie’s costumes. Read More

August Rush* – Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack, Tevin Thomas (“Raise It Up”)

Enchanted – Alan Menken, Stephen Schwartz (“Happy Working Song”)

Enchanted – Alan Menken, Stephen Schwartz (“So Close”)

Enchanted – Alan Menken, Stephen Schwartz (“That’s How You Know”)

Once – Glen Hansard, Markéta Irglová (“Falling Slowly”)

Will win: August Rush is dead in the water. Enchanted is obviously the showier movie, but it’s highly likely that its three songs will split votes. Once is a critical darling, and it has the added benefit of only being nominated, ahem, once. Besides, it’s about time Disney loses one of these things, if only once. (O.K., I’ll stop. For once.) Read More

Norbit* – Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – Ve Neill, Martin Samuel

La Vie en Rose – Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald

Will win: Now here’s a trio you don’t see every day: a supposedly moronic Eddie Murphy comedy, a mega-successful action blockbuster, and an ingratiating French biopic. Not exactly Tinker to Evers to Chance. Anyway, biopics have an inherent advantage in the makeup category. Since their subject is a concrete, identifiable person, the biopic’s goal is to create not a new character but a likeness. I don’t know what the real Edith Piaf looked like, but I imagine some voters do, and even if they don’t, the transformation of Marion Cotillard’s appearance is so traumatic that it’s easy to just assume it’s a result of impressive makeup. Throw in that everyone hated Norbit and that At World’s End is just too damn likable to win an Oscar, and La Vie en Rose takes it. Read More

The Bourne Ultimatum – Scott Millan, David Parker, Kirk Frances

No Country for Old Men – Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland

Ratatouille – Randy Thom, Michael Semanick, Doc Kane

3:10 to Yuma – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Jim Stuebe

Transformers – Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Peter J. Devlin

Will win: First rule of Sound Mixing: When in doubt, take the musical. Sadly, that rule does not apply here. Next rule: Take the war movie. Good plan, except there are no war movies. Third rule – shit, there is no third rule. Read More

No End in Sight*

Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience*

Sicko*

Taxi to the Dark Side*

War Dance*

Will win: Obviously I’m going entirely on buzz here, since I haven’t seen any of these movies. The three I’ve heard of are No End in Sight, about Iraq; Sicko, Michael Moore’s critique of the U.S. healthcare system; and Taxi to the Dark Side, about the United States’ mistreatment of prisoners of war. Of the three, I think No End in Sight has received the best overall press (it has a whopping score of 89 on Metacritic), and after Moore’s antics three years ago, I doubt voters want him back on the stage.

Should win: Not nearly as important as …

Should NOT win: Obviously, I haven’t seen Sicko, and it’s entirely possible that it’s a perfectly respectable, well-made documentary. (I kind of doubt it, but it’s possible.) But I will never root for Michael Moore to win anything in his life. His self-aggrandizing speech at the Oscars three years ago, when he won for Fahrenheit 911, solidified his standing as the most obnoxious, egotistical prick working in cinema today. What an asshole. Read More