Oscars 2019: The Lead Actors

Jeremy BeckOscars
Renée Zellweger is set to claim another Oscar for "Judy".

Our Oscars analysis is entering its home stretch. Previously, we’ve looked at odds and ends, technical fields, and the supporting actor and actress races. Today, we’re looking at Best Actor and Best Actress. As discussed yesterday, the acting races this year are very boring to predict; they’re also very fun to analyze.


BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Antonio Banderas—Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
Jonathan Pryce—The Two Popes

WILL WIN
Phoenix. And honestly, good for him. No, Joker isn’t my favorite Joaquin Phoenix performance—that would probably be Her, though The Master, Inherent Vice, and You Were Never Really Here might all put up a fight—but it’s still a very good one. He deserves to have a trophy on his shelf. Read More

Read more

Oscars 2019: The Supporting Actors

Jeremy BeckOscars
Brad Pitt, future Oscar winner.

Thus far in our ongoing Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at some odds and ends and some technical categories. Today, we get to the good stuff: the supporting actor and actress races.

One curious thing about this year’s Oscars is that all four of the acting awards are virtually sewn up; the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, and the Screen Actors Guild all honored the same performers in each category (ignoring the Globes’ musical/comedy offshoots for lead actor, neither of whom is even nominated here). This makes predicting these particular Oscar races rather boring. But who cares? The juicy stuff with actors isn’t who will win, but who should—and, more importantly, who appears on your own personal ballot. The quality of acting in cinema these days is extraordinarily strong, so narrowing down each category to a proper quintet is always a daunting challenge.

Who made the Manifesto’s cut? Read on to find out. Read More

Read more

Oscars 2019: The Big Techies

Jeremy BeckOscars
Matt Damon and Christian Bale in future Oscar winner "Ford v Ferrari".

Yesterday, we analyzed some of the less sexy categories at this year’s Oscars. Today, the sexiness has arrived; we’re moving on to five below-the-line fields that I’ve arbitrarily labeled “the big techies”. Get excited, film editing enthusiasts!


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES
The Irishman—Rodrigo Prieto
Joker—Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse—Jarin Blaschke
1917—Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood—Robert Richardson

WILL WIN
The Oscars work in mysterious ways. For a solid decade—beginning with his double-nomination in 2007, for No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James—Roger Deakins was deemed to be the greatest living cinematographer never to have won an Academy Award. Two years ago, after 13 straight nominations without a win, Deakins finally got off the schneid for his breathtaking lensing of Blade Runner 2049. This year, he’s winning again for 1917. This will not be close. Read More

Read more

Oscars 2019: The Odds and Ends

Jeremy BeckOscars
Is "Toy Story 4" a future Oscar winner?

It’s that time of year! Over the next week, the Manifesto will be rigorously analyzing each of the 21 feature categories for this year’s Oscars. Well, maybe not that rigorously. I used to be an Oscar obsessive, but over the past decade or so, my enthusiasm for the glorified gala has waned a bit. How the movie industry chooses to celebrate itself is no longer of tremendous concern to me. I know which films and performances I like and which I don’t; who really cares what the Academy thinks?

Well, a lot of people. And even setting aside the commercial significance of the Oscars, it’s always worth remembering that, for the most part, they tend to honor pretty good movies. Just don’t take them too seriously; that way, you can’t be too disappointed when they inevitably fuck up.

We’ll be filing a series of posts this week, culminating with a look at Best Picture on Friday. Today, we’re beginning with a handful of categories that I’ve rudely deemed to be minor—not because I discount the contributions of the artisans in these particular fields, but because I, as a cinematic neanderthal, don’t especially care about them. (Speaking of which, I never bother to even predict the three shorts categories, because come on.) Let’s get to it. Read More

Read more