Oscars 2018: The Lead Actors

Olivia Colman in "The Favourite"

With the big show just a few days away, we’re entering the home stretch of our Oscars predictions. Today, we’re looking at the lead actors, where one race is far deeper than the other. Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up with Best Director and Best Picture.

If you missed our earlier installments, you can find them at the following links:

The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends


BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Christian Bale—Vice
Bradley Cooper—A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe—At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen—Green Book

WILL WIN
Malek. He’s won the precursor Triple Crown, and while Film Twitter has spent the past two weeks attacking his performance as simplistic, Film Twitter doesn’t vote at the Oscars. It’s possible to suss out a late-game push from the perennially disappointed Cooper, but that strikes me as a false narrative. Malek takes it. Read More

Oscars 2018: The Supporting Actors

Regina King in "If Beale Street Could Talk"

Thus far in our Oscars rundown, we’ve looked at the odds and ends, the big techies, and the screenplays. We’re now getting to the categories that viewers (and even non-viewers) tend to be more passionate about, beginning with the supporting actors.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Amy Adams—Vice
Marina de Tavira—Roma
Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone—The Favourite
Rachel Weisz—The Favourite Read More

Oscars 2018: The Screenplays

Adam Driver and John David Washington in "BlacKkKlansman"

Thus far in our walkthrough of the Oscars, we’ve looked at some miscellaneous technical categories and some higher-profile technical fields. Now we’re getting to the good stuff, beginning with the screenplays.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs—Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman—Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?—Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk—Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born—Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters Read More

Oscars 2018: The Big Techies

Christian Bale in "Vice"

Yesterday, we looked at some of the lower-profile below-the line fields in this year’s Oscars. This morning, we’re staying in the technical areas but progressing to some categories that carry a bit more weight. Of course, the Academy initially planned on announcing the winners for two of these fields during commercial breaks, but then they reversed course, no doubt because they remembered that the Manifesto prizes these categories.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES
Cold War—Lukasz Zal
The Favourite—Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away—Caleb Deschanel
Roma—Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born—Matthew Libatique Read More

Oscars 2018: The Odds and Ends

"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"

Welcome to Oscars Week! If you’re less than excited about Sunday’s annual cinematic gala, you might well be a producer for the show! Suffice it to say that it’s been a rough month for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, as they introduced one dubious revision to the telecast after another—no live song performances; no prior year’s winners as presenters; shunting the announcements for four categories to commercial breaks—only to walk back each change in the face of virulent criticism from the moviegoing public. (And let’s not forget the risible “Best Popular Film” category that was introduced in August before being mercifully scrapped a month later.) Enthusiasm for the ceremony may vary, but this parade of failures has left the sour impression that the people who care least about the Oscars happen to be in charge of running this year’s Oscars.

For my part, I no longer view the Oscars as hugely important. But I still think they have value, both as a historical record—literally, what were they thinking?—and as an opportunity to honor a bunch of movies that are, by and large, pretty good. Sure, I disagree with the Academy’s chosen winners more often than not, but that disagreement doesn’t automatically render their selections terrible. Besides, the arguments are part of the fun.

And so, over the next week, we’ll be running through our predictions and preferences in all 21 features categories (sorry, I don’t weigh in on the shorts because I know absolutely nothing about them). Today, we’re ripping through eight below-the-line fields that I dismissively dub “the odds and ends”, which is just a way to distinguish them from the five other crafts categories that I’m more passionate about. If you happen to care deeply about sound mixing or costume design, I apologize if I’ve insulted you. Also, get over it. Read More