Oscars 2020: The Lead Actors

The Oscars are just days away! We’ve already looked at some odds and ends, some higher-profile technical categories, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Today, we’re examining the always-exciting races in the lead acting categories.

Let’s start with the men:

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Riz Ahmed—Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins—The Father
Gary Oldman—Mank
Steven Yeun—Minari

WILL WIN
All year, everyone has been assuming that Boseman has this locked up. He probably still does. But after Hopkins defeated him at the BAFTAs, some prognosticators started rumbling that this is now a legit race. Nothing’s guaranteed, of course, but I don’t buy it—partly because The Father is an extremely British film, and partly because of, er, certain circumstances. Boseman wins a posthumous Oscar for his final performance.

SHOULD WIN
I love this field, as three of the five nominees made my own ballot. That includes neither Oldman nor Yeun, but they’re both very good as well, with Oldman savoring his writer’s boozy drawl and Yeun quietly underlining his farmer’s emotional impotence. For their part, Ahmed and Hopkins both play men with disabilities but do so in very non-Oscary ways; Ahmed highlights his drummer’s fierce determination in the face of paralyzing fear, while Hopkins slowly reveals his patriarch’s faltering grip on reality without preying on your sympathy (at least not until the final scene).

But I’m going with Boseman. I worry that, years from now, observers might look back and regard his (presumed) win as a somber parting gift—a mournful appreciation of a career (and a life) cut tragically short—rather than as genuine recognition for his work in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. I can’t pretend to divine the motivations of Academy voters, but for my part, Boseman deserves to win here because he delivers a phenomenal performance—the best of his career. He’s loose-limbed, natural, and jocular; he’s also intense, instinctive, and electric. It’s marvelous work, and while its greatness inevitably makes us wonder what could have been, that shouldn’t detract from its own majesty.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Riz Ahmed—Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins—The Father
Hugh Jackman—Bad Education
Bill Murray—On the Rocks

Bad Education’s classification as a TV movie was moronic on a number of levels, but depriving Jackman of a potential nomination for his mesmerizing turn as a corrupt superintendent—equal parts honeyed charm and animalistic savagery—was the most infuriating. Murray is just wonderful company, supplying perhaps his most purely enjoyable performance since the last time he teamed up with Sofia Coppola 17 years ago. (Sorry, A Very Murray Christmas doesn’t count.)

MovieManifesto’s winner: Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Delroy Lindo—Da 5 Bloods
Mads Mikkelsen—Another Round
Gary Oldman—Mank
Lakeith Stanfield—Judas and the Black Messiah
Vince Vaughn—Freaky

Lindo is the highlight of Da 5 Bloods, a very messy movie that rediscovers its focus whenever it centers on him. Mikkelsen elevates Another Round’s dubious premise into brittle tragedy. Daniel Kaluuya grabbed the accolades (including a likely Oscar win) for Judas and the Black Messiah, but it’s Stanfield who provides it with its corrosive soul. Vaughn is an absolute delight.

Honorable mention: Claes Bang—The Burnt Orange Heresy; Jesse Plemons—I’m Thinking of Ending Things; Jahi Di’Allo Winston—Charm City Kings.

BEST ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Viola Davis—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day—The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby—Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand—Nomadland
Carey Mulligan—Promising Young Woman

WILL WIN
And here we have the most suspenseful race of the night. With the exception of Kirby, everyone has a shot here. The precursors are of little help, as they split the wealth: Davis won at SAG, Day won at the Golden Globes (over this exact field), McDormand won at the BAFTAs (where only Kirby was also nominated), and Mulligan won at the Critics’ Choice Awards (for whatever that’s worth). You can construct a narrative to support any prediction: Day is playing a beloved musician, McDormand is the main selling point of the Oscar frontrunner, Mulligan is due for her first win, etc.

But my guess is Davis. Sure, she already won four years ago (one year before McDormand claimed her second Oscar), but that was in the supporting category, and she delivers a big and showy performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In a race where nobody has pulled ahead, that seems like enough.

SHOULD WIN
Weirdly, Davis’ performance is the only one of these that didn’t work for me, whether because it’s too mannered or because I couldn’t take my eyes off Boseman. Anyway, everyone else is terrific. Day makes a Lee Daniels production kinda watchable, which is quite an achievement. Kirby is simply agonizing, with a jaw-dropping opening sequence that’s so nauseating, you can practically smell it. Nomadland is a movie full of iconic American landmarks, none more imposing than McDormand’s face. Mulligan adds invaluable texture to a picture that seethes with provocation and flamboyance.

For most of the month, I was leaning toward Mulligan, but after wrestling with it further, I’m taking McDormand. It’s a matter of VORP. Mulligan is exceptional, but Promising Young Woman already has plenty else to recommend it. Nomadland has its own gentle charms, of course, but I don’t think it’s quite as tremendous as the consensus, and I suspect I would have found it downright pedestrian without the flinty rock at its center. McDormand is its primary attraction, its emotional fulcrum, its guiding light. That’s Oscar-worthy.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Morfydd Clark—Saint Maud
Julia Garner—The Assistant
Cristin Milioti—Palm Springs
Anya Taylor-Joy—Emma
Kate Winslet—Ammonite

As usual, narrowing the slate of deserving candidates in this category to five was torture. Clark will get your heart pounding, while Garner will shatter it. Milioti is hilarious and vulnerable and defiant all at once. A single glance from Winslet can freeze the ocean. And hey, anyone ever hear of this movie called Emma?

MovieManifesto’s winner: Anya Taylor-Joy—Emma.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Katie Findlay—Straight Up
Sidney Flanigan—Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Frances McDormand—Nomadland
Elisabeth Moss—The Invisible Man
Carey Mulligan—Promising Young Woman

Findlay complements her natural vivacity with fierce intelligence. Flanigan absorbs the pain of a nation of women deprived of their liberty. Moss can shift from terrified to terrifying in a flash.

Honorable mention: Kiera Allen—Run; Nicole Beharie—Miss Juneteenth; Rachel McAdams—Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; Kristen Stewart—Happiest Season.

Coming tomorrow: the screenplays, Best Director, and Best Picture.