Oscars 2020: The Supporting Actors

And now, we get to the good stuff. Having already analyzed the technical categories at this year’s Oscars, both large and small, it’s time to dig into the races that you really care about. Today, we’re looking at Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress; tomorrow, we’ll move on to the lead actors.

Ladies first:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Maria Bakalova—Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close—Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman—The Father
Amanda Seyfried—Mank
Youn Yuh-jung—Minari

WILL WIN
For awhile, this was looking like an unusually close race. But then Youn won at both SAG and the BAFTAs, and it’s hard to imagine anyone slowing her momentum now. I can’t rule out a surge in support for Bakalova or (if The Father overperforms) Colman, but it doesn’t seem likely. Youn gives Minari what might be its only Oscar win out of six nominations.

SHOULD WIN
I like most of these performances just fine (yes, even Glenn Close), but only two really pop for me: Bakalova’s unnerving commitment, and Seyfried’s effortless glamour. I sincerely hope that we get to see Bakalova again, but I’m going with the starlet over the starstruck.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Maria Bakalova—Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Gina Rodriguez—Kajillionaire
Saoirse Ronan—Ammonite
Talia Ryder—Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Amanda Seyfried—Mank

She’ll be best remembered for the scene opposite Rudy Giuliani, but Bakalova delivers a deceptively well-rounded performance, turning her walking gag reel into an actual character. Rodriguez brings crucial ballast and emotive sincerity to an antic, loopy picture. Ryder imbues her seemingly stock supporting role with tremors of resolve, impatience, and dignity. Seyfried radiates charm. Ronan is the heart in my heartbreak.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Gina Rodriguez—Kajillionaire.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Olivia Cooke—Sound of Metal
Molly Gordon—The Broken Hearts Gallery
Yeri Han—Minari
Mary Holland—Happiest Season
Kristin Scott Thomas—Rebecca

Riz Ahmed deservedly grabbed the headlines for his terrific work in Sound of Metal, but Cooke’s cracked helplessness and quiet aching vault the movie into another tier. Gordon, previously best known to me for her sly turn in Booksmart (can’t wait to see you, Shiva Baby!), is almost indecent in how easily she steals scenes. Han is the secret soul of Minari, providing its most resonant moments. Holland is both adorably clueless and defiantly noble. Rebecca may be flimsy, but Scott Thomas is pure steel.

Honorable mention: Elizabeth Debicki—Tenet; Miranda Hart—Emma; Lily James—The Dig; Allison Janney—Bad Education; Kate Winslet—Blackbird.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Sacha Baron Cohen—The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya—Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr.—One Night in Miami
Paul Raci—Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield—Judas and the Black Messiah

WILL WIN
Kaluuya. You might think that he’d be at risk of splitting the vote with his Judas and the Black Messiah costar (who probably belongs in the lead category, but whatever), but he gives the flashier performance, and he’s basically swept the circuit, scoring wins at SAG, the BAFTAs, and the Golden Globes. Book it.

SHOULD WIN
These are all good performances—I’m especially happy for Raci—but Baron Cohen is the clear winner for me. He effortlessly adapts his flamboyant comic persona into Aaron Sorkin’s jousting style, exuding intelligence and playfulness while also suggesting the anger and sadness that lay at Abbie Hoffman’s core.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Sacha Baron Cohen—The Trial of the Chicago 7
Hugh Grant—The Gentlemen
Daniel Levy—Happiest Season
Robert Pattinson—Tenet
Mark Rylance—The Trial of the Chicago 7

Grant delivers perhaps the most unabashedly delighted (and delightful) performance of the year as a chatty hoodlum without scruples or boundaries. Levy is nearly as funny, and he also knows how to throttle down when required. Rylance magnetizes your attention whenever he opens his mouth, which, lucky for us, happens a lot. Pattinson is so casually charismatic, you’d think he could be a movie star.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Sacha Baron Cohen—The Trial of the Chicago 7.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Andrey Bykov—Beanpole
Chen Yi-wen—A Sun
Samuel L. Jackson—The Banker
Bill Nighy—Emma
Paul Raci—Sound of Metal

Bykov seems to carry Beanpole’s massive weight like an anvil. Chen slowly reveals the layers simmering beneath a father’s spoiled pride. You surely forgot that The Banker existed, but Jackson is all smooth charm, delivering what’s probably his best performance since The Hateful Eight. Nighy secures a laugh with every pained line reading or pronounced wince. Raci brings extraordinary texture to his role, falling somewhere between medic and cleric.

Honorable mention: Yahya Abdul-Mateen—The Trial of the Chicago 7; Chris Messina—I Care a Lot.

Coming tomorrow: the lead actors.