When it comes to this year’s Oscars, we can agree to disagree. Or maybe we can disagree about what we agree on. From my particular vantage on Film Twitter, it was hard to tell whether this year’s slate of nominations constituted a triumph or a travesty. Did the Academy make some brave and unexpected choices? Or were its curveballs simply, to quote a certain aesthete, a sly declaration of new classic status slipped into a list of old safe ones?
As is ever the case, it’s hard to get too excited about this year’s Oscar nominees, but it’s also silly to be too disappointed by them. By and large, the Academy highlighted some pretty good movies and artisans, even if their picks rarely aligned with my own. The day our respective selections do match perfectly will be cause for trepidation rather than celebration. After all, what am I without my own weird, idiosyncratic, inimitable taste?
Never mind my own picks; let’s get to the Academy’s. Specifically, here’s a quick rundown of the nominees for the 94th Academy Awards—both where my fearless (read: foolish) predictions went wrong and how things will likely progress from here.
BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side StoryTick Tick Boom Nightmare Alley
Analysis: Honestly, nine out of ten isn’t bad! The recognition for Drive My Car might suggest that critical bodies have a larger voice in Oscar voting than people suspect. Or maybe lots of members just liked the movie. Anyway, the bigger surprise than Tick Tick Boom missing the final cut is what replaced it: Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley. (I’d figured that Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos was the likeliest interloper.) I’m lukewarm on the film itself, but it represents the kind of richly imagined, strangely personal moviemaking that I’d be happy to see more of, so kudos to the Academy for honoring it, even if its chances of winning the top prize are precisely nil.
Current favorite: Heading into yesterday’s announcement, I probably would have gone with Belfast as a slight lead over The Power of the Dog. But the Kenneth Branagh drama only snagged seven total nominations (with crucial misses in cinematography and film editing), whereas the Jane Campion Western landed twelve. Total nomination count isn’t an especially meaningful metric when it comes to Best Picture—La La Land scored fourteen mentions, and we all remember how that turned out—but as of now, I’ll give Power of the Dog the edge.
Glaring omission: The French Dispatch. I don’t believe in using the term “snub” when it comes to Oscars analysis; there are lots of good movies and performers, and reducing them to a list of five (or, in this case, ten) is a cruel business. But maybe not as cruel as ignoring Wes Anderson’s wondrous, wonderful adventure.
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson—Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh—Belfast
Jane Campion—The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg—West Side StoryDenis Villeneuve—Dune Ryûsuke Hamaguchi—Drive My Car
Analysis: Per usual, the Academy departed from the Directors Guild with one of its five slots. Still, I hardly expected Villeneuve, as the steward of the year’s most classically pleasing blockbuster, to be the one ousted; I figured Anderson or even Spielberg were on shakier ground. Happy for Hamaguchi, though I reserve the right to change my mind if I dislike his movie (which, I must remind you, I’ve yet to see, though I hope to change that soon).
Current favorite: Probably Campion. The Academy has shown a recent willingness to split between Best Picture and Best Director, but that’s usually when the latter is a more visually impressive work; Belfast, despite its pleasing black-and-white sheen, ain’t that.
Glaring omission: Edgar Wright—Last Night in Soho. The movie is imperfect, but Wright’s complete command of its dazzling look and feel is extraordinary.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain—The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman—The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman—Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart—SpencerLady Gaga—House of Gucci Penélope Cruz—Parallel Mothers
Analysis: The trend continues, as I’m less surprised by who showed up (Cruz is good, and everyone understandably loves her) than whom she replaced; honestly, Gaga was probably my closest thing to a lock in this category, save maybe Kidman. Still, nice surprise!
Current favorite: None. Forced to choose right now, I’d take Kidman, but everyone except Cruz is in play.
Glaring omission: Rebecca Hall—The Night House. Again, there’s no such thing as a snub—when I finalize my own ballot next month, I’ll need to make some heartbreaking cuts—but Hall is magnificent in a performance that burrows deep into her character.
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch—The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield—Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith—King Richard
Denzel Washington—The Tragedy of MacbethLeonardo DiCaprio—Don’t Look Up Javier Bardem—Being the Ricardos
Analysis: Bardem showing up is no real surprise, and as enjoyable as DiCaprio is, it’s something of a relief that he wasn’t nominated for one of his less incredible performances (y’know, again).
Current favorite: Probably Smith, though I wouldn’t rule out Cumberbatch, especially if The Power of the Dog starts building toward a sweep.
Glaring omission: Simon Rex—Red Rocket. There may have been more technically accomplished performances in 2021, but it’s hard to think of one that was more entertaining—or disturbing.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose—West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst—The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis—King RichardCaitríona Balfe—Belfast Jessie Buckley—The Lost DaughterRuth Negga—Passing Judi Dench—Belfast
Analysis: Whoops, wrong Belfast actor! Judi Dench is perfectly charming in that movie, so I won’t complain, even if I preferred Balfe’s clamped desire. I’m bummed for Negga, but Buckley is an admirably bold choice to replace her.
Current favorite: DeBose. But if Dunst wins this category, then look out, we could have a Silence of the Lambs situation on our hands (i.e., one movie claiming The Big Five).
Glaring omission: Riley Keough—Zola. She’ll get her recognition someday, but damn did Keough deserve this. She’s electrifying.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds—Belfast
Troy Kotsur—CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee—The Power of the DogBradley Cooper—Licorice Pizza Jesse Plemons—The Power of the DogJared Leto—House of Gucci J.K. Simmons—Being the Ricardos
Analysis: Leto missing out is hardly a surprise, but Cooper failing to crack the field certainly is. Simmons has given more interesting performances elsewhere (including in his prior Oscar win, of course). Very pleased for Plemons—who swiftly transformed his career from dopey teen sidekick into terrific character actor—to land his first Oscar nod.
Current favorite: Smit-McPhee. If Hinds pulls this one out, then the Best Picture race gets a lot more interesting.
Glaring omission: Vincent Lindon—Titane. He’s arguably a co-lead, but it would’ve been swell for the Academy to recognize Lindon somewhere, given how gracefully he anchors Julia Ducournau’s off-the-wall thriller.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast—Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up—Adam McKay
Licorice Pizza—Paul Thomas AndersonBeing the Ricardos—Aaron Sorkin King Richard—Zach BaylinThe French Dispatch—Wes Anderson The Worst Person in the World—Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
Analysis: Say it ain’t Sorkin! I’ll give King Richard this, its script is definitely… functional. I’m crushed at the complete shutout of The French Dispatch, but I’m thrilled for The Worst Person in the World, a sharp and spiky coming-of-age dramedy that the Academy typically ignores.
Current favorite: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but… Don’t Look Up?? It’s certainly the most screenplay. Bettors seem to be favoring Licorice Pizza at the moment, so we’ll see.
Glaring omission: Nine Days—Edson Oda. This lovely and surprising “before life” drama is entrancing in its structural imagination and philosophical depth.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA—Siân Heder
Drive My Car—Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
Dune—Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth
The Power of the Dog—Jane CampionTick Tick Boom—Steven Levenson The Lost Daughter—Maggie Gyllenhaal
Analysis: I don’t love The Lost Daughter, but it’s a strange, prickly movie, so I can’t begrudge it some Oscar love.
Current favorite: Power of the Dog. Book it.
Glaring omission: The Last Duel—Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck, and Matt Damon. Ridley Scott’s medieval epic is smarter than it lets on, and much of its intelligence stems from its knotty, deceptively insightful screenplay.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune—Greig Fraser
The Power of the Dog—Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth—Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story—Janusz KaminskiBelfast—Haris Zambarloukos Nightmare Alley—Dan Laustsen
Analysis: Again, Nightmare Alley showing up is hardly a shock, but I’m surprised it unseated Belfast.
Current favorite: Dune. It’s the biggest, and that rules the roost here.
Glaring omission: Old—Mike Gioulakis. M. Night Shyamalan’s silky thriller is all craft, and its elegance is never more evident than in Gioulakis’ fluid lensing.
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune—Joe Walker
The Power of the Dog—Peter Sciberras
Tick Tick Boom—Myron Kerstein and Andrew WeisblumBelfast—Úna Ní Dhonghaíle Don’t Look Up—Hank CorwinWest Side Story—Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn King Richard—Pamela Martin
Analysis: This is probably the biggest miss for Belfast. Also, Don’t Look Up receiving an Oscar nomination for its editing is far funnier than any of the jokes in the movie, well played everyone.
Current favorite: Dune. See above (though Power of the Dog has a better chance here).
Glaring omission: West Side Story—Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn. Voters do realize that someone had to cut those ravishing musical sequences together, right?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up—Nicholas Britell
Dune—Hans Zimmer
The Power of the Dog—Jonny GreenwoodThe French Dispatch—Alexandre Desplat Encanto—Germaine FrancoNo Time to Die—Hans Zimmer Parallel Mothers—Alberto Iglesias
Analysis: The Encanto nod is interesting; it’s nice to see Franco’s score recognized separately from Lin-Manuel Miranda’s songs. I wasn’t expecting Parallel Mothers here, but then, what was I expecting?
Current favorite: Dune, again? We’ll see if Greenwood can put up a fight.
Glaring omission: Luca—Dan Romer. Encanto wasn’t the only animated movie with gorgeous music this year.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side StoryThe French Dispatch The Power of the Dog
Analysis: You had one job, voters!
Current favorite: Dune. I’m starting to sense a pattern. Just remember that, when it racks up five Oscars early in the night, that doesn’t make it any more likely to win Best Picture.
Glaring omission: The French Dispatch. I try not to repeat movies in my gripes, but come on. The sets in this movie are works of art.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way HomeGodzilla vs. Kong Free GuyThe Matrix Resurrections Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Analysis: It’s funny that Shang-Chi showed up here, when its cruddy visual effects are probably the worst thing about it.
Current favorite: Care to guess?
Glaring omission: Lamb. This is an admittedly unorthodox pick, but I admire effects work that deploys subtlety rather than obvious CGI, and the titular hybrid in Lamb is quite the impressive creation.
That’s a wrap for now. The Oscars will be held on March 27, so we’ll be back closer to the show with some more detailed, category-specific analysis.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.