Oscars 2021: Nomination Predictions

Hey, the Oscars are back to normal this year, right? Well, sort of. Following last year’s ill-advised, pandemic-influenced decision to extend the 2020 eligibility window by two months, this year’s period is correspondingly shorter, spanning from March through December of 2021. Of course, release date is really just a state of mind for the Academy; how else to explain the qualifying run, that ubiquitous, noxious trend in which buzzy contenders—including Cyrano, Petite Maman, and The Worst Person in the World—receive invisible one-week December releases in New York and L.A. in order to be deemed “2021” films, even though the vast majority of American audiences can’t see them for months later?

It’s annoying, but release-schedule and eligibility-fudging shenanigans aside, the good news is that the compressed ten-month window hasn’t yielded a shortage of strong candidates. I’ll wait until next month before unveiling my official top 10 list, but despite the routine prophecies of the death of cinema, there were still plenty of good movies to watch in 2021. Now, whether that sustained quality will actually translate to this year’s nominations is anyone’s guess, though widening the inevitable gap between personal darlings and populist favorites is arguably part of the Academy’s function. Put differently: What’s the point of the Oscars if not to complain about them?

OK, that’s a glibly cynical view, and one that ignores the Academy’s value as a recordkeeping institution. Regardless, griping about the inferiority of the nominations is really just an excuse for critics to assert our collective (i.e., our individual) superiority. The Oscars are axiomatically a matter of taste, and analyzing them is a convenient excuse for me to remind you that my taste is better than yours.

Here are MovieManifesto’s predictions for tomorrow’s announcement for the nominations in 13 major categories for the 94th Academy Awards (I’m not doing the remaining categories because I don’t want to):

BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Tick Tick Boom
West Side Story

Comments: Recall that, after a decade of experimenting with a floating field of 5-10 Best Picture nominees, the Academy is reverting to a definitive ten this year. That matches the number of the Producers Guild, and it’d be reasonable to just copy their selection and leave it at that, though there’s usually one curveball in the mix. Five of these—Belfast, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story—strike me as locks, and I’m reasonably confident in CODA, Don’t Look Up, and Dune as well. Tick Tick Boom is on less solid footing, but I think it’s enough of a crowd-pleaser to hold on. My wildcard pick is Drive My Car, which has been racking up wins with critics’ groups but failed to land at the PGA. It’s arguably too obscure for the Academy’s tastes (I’d love to tell you if it’s any good, but I can’t fucking watch it), but my guess is that it’s acquired enough momentum to crack the field.

Potential upsets: The obvious alternate here is Being the Ricardos, which features big stars and made the PGA lineup. Other possibilities include Joel Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth and Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, whoops I mean Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci, sorry I confused the good Ridley Scott movie with the bad Ridley Scott movie.

Longshots: Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro’s last movie won Best Picture, after all); No Time to Die (if Oscar voters couldn’t nominate Casino Royale or Skyfall, then why this?); Spider-Man: No Way Home (don’t get me started); The French Dispatch (sigh); The Lost Daughter.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson—Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh—Belfast
Jane Campion—The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg—West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve—Dune

Comments: This is boring because it matches the Directors Guild slate. But whom are you taking out? Belfast and The Power of the Dog are essentially co-favorites for Best Picture at the moment, so Branagh and Campion both need to be here. Dune is the biggest and most directorially visible movie in contention. Spielberg is fucking Spielberg. I suppose Anderson would be my least safe pick, but he’s beloved in the industry, in part because he makes really good movies.

Potential upsets: Obviously, any of the other Best Picture nominees could have their maker show up here, though the only ones that seem plausible are Adam McKay for Don’t Look Up and Ryûsuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car; given the directing branch’s willingness to skew international, I’d be more confident in the latter. If The Tragedy of Macbeth scores a Best Picture nod, then Coen could turn up here, and the same is true for del Toro with Nightmare Alley.

Longshots: Any of the other Best Picture contenders, i.e., Lin-Manuel Miranda for Tick Tick Boom, Siân Heder for CODA, Reinaldo Marcus Green for King Richard, or even Aaron Sorkin for Being the Ricardos. Also, don’t rule out Pedro Almodóvar for Parallel Mothers.

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain—The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman—The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga—House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman—Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart—Spencer

Comments: Weirdly, I don’t think any of these are locks, though Gaga and Kidman seem relatively safe. I’m not sure how many voters actually watched The Lost Daughter, but if enough of them switched it on, then Colman should pop up. For the last two spots, it becomes a “choose your preferred impersonation” game; I’ll roll the dice on Chastain’s makeup-laden mugging and Stewart’s cutglass chill.

Potential upsets: The likeliest interloper here is Jennifer Hudson for Respect, though again, I’m not sure how many voters saw it. The BAFTAs honored both Alana Haim (for Licorice Pizza) and Renate Reinsve (for The Worst Person in the World), but their narrow jury system doesn’t translate all that well to the Academy’s broad acting branch. Maybe Penélope Cruz for Parallel Mothers?

Longshots: Rachel Zegler for West Side Story (seems as though Ariana DeBose has vacuumed up all of the buzz); Emilia Jones for CODA; Jennifer Lawrence for Don’t Look Up (hey, remember her?); Frances McDormand for The Tragedy of Macbeth.

BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch—The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio—Don’t Look Up
Andrew Garfield—Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith—King Richard
Denzel Washington—The Tragedy of Macbeth

Comments: Cumberbatch, Garfield, and Smith are all in, and I feel pretty confident in Washington as well. That fifth spot is tricky. I’m going with DiCaprio because, well, he’s Leonardo DiCaprio; if you think Don’t Look Up is one of the best movies of the year (as many Academy voters apparently do), then how do you leave arguably the world’s biggest movie star off your ballot?

Potential upsets: If Being the Ricardos snags a Best Picture nomination, then Javier Bardem should show up here; even if it doesn’t, he still has a shot. So does Peter Dinklage for Cyrano, a movie that I would very much like to watch, but never mind. If Haim cracks the Best Actress field for Licorice Pizza, then Cooper Hoffman could feasibly do the same here.

Longshots: Eh. Pretty sure it’s five of those eight.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitríona Balfe—Belfast
Ariana DeBose—West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst—The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis—King Richard
Ruth Negga—Passing

Comments: DeBose and Dunst are solid, and Balfe seems to have avoided a vote-splitting concern with Judi Dench. Negga has the Screen Actors Guild nod, so I think she’s in decent shape. Ellis is my wildcard.

Potential upsets: Cate Blanchett also showed up at the Screen Actors Guild for her glamorous turn in Nightmare Alley, plus she’s Cate Blanchett, so she’s certainly a threat.

Longshots: Dench; Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter; Marlee Matlin for CODA (always fun for the Academy to honor long-past winners); Rita Moreno for West Side Story (speaking of which).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper—Licorice Pizza
Ciarán Hinds—Belfast
Troy Kotsur—CODA
Jared Leto—House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee—The Power of the Dog

Comments: I’m sold on Kotsur, Smit-McPhee, and Hinds. Cooper isn’t in Licorice Pizza for very long, but he certainly makes an impression. Leto is an acquired taste; I suspect that Oscars voters have acquired it.

Potential upsets: Jamie Dornan is a possibility for Belfast, though I think Hinds is drawing most of the attention there. It’s possible that I continue to underrate Being the Ricardos, so keep an eye on J.K. Simmons. Ben Affleck is apparently quite lovely in The Tender Bar, a supposedly terrible movie that I should probably watch at some point.

Longshots: Jesse Plemons for The Power of the Dog; Mike Faist for West Side Story (if only).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos—Aaron Sorkin
Belfast—Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up—Adam McKay
The French Dispatch—Wes Anderson
Licorice Pizza—Paul Thomas Anderson

Comments: It’s generally advisable to track the Best Picture nominees here, though the Academy will occasionally throw more ambitious writers a bone, which is why I’m slotting in The French Dispatch at the expense of King Richard. And while I technically don’t have Being the Ricardos as a Best Picture prediction, it’ll be difficult for voters to resist another showy Sorkin script.

Potential upsets: King Richard.

Longshots: Maybe Parallel Mothers or A Hero? I don’t really see it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA—Siân Heder
Drive My Car—Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
Dune—Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth
The Power of the Dog—Jane Campion
Tick Tick Boom—Steven Levenson

Comments: I’m pretty confident in CODA and The Power of the Dog. Beyond that, good luck.

Potential upsets: It’s arguably inconsistent for me to predict Tick Tick Boom but not West Side Story; I just worry that voters will hear all of the instantly recognizable songs in the latter and ignore the subtle polishing that Tony Kushner put into his adaptation. If the Academy is inclined to reward actors transforming into auteurs, they could honor either Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) or Rebecca Hall (Passing).

Longshots: Nightmare Alley; The Tragedy of Macbeth (nah).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Belfast—Haris Zambarloukos
Dune—Greig Fraser
The Power of the Dog—Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth—Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story—Janusz Kaminski

Comments: I feel… strangely confident about this? Belfast is probably my shakiest pick, but it’s a Best Picture frontrunner that’s shot in black-and-white.

Potential upsets: Nightmare Alley scored with the guild (at the expense of West Side Story), so it’s the likeliest interloper.

Longshots: Licorice Pizza? The Green Knight? Last Night in Soho???

BEST FILM EDITING
Belfast—Úna Ní Dhonghaíle
Dune—Joe Walker
The Power of the Dog—Peter Sciberras
Tick Tick Boom—Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
West Side Story—Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn

Comments: Belfast, Dune, and The Power of the Dog are all solid. West Side Story is a long movie, but it’s a dazzling one, and somebody had to stitch all of those gorgeous sequences together. Tick Tick Boom is less spectacular but still impressive, so I like it sneaking in.

Potential upsets: If the Academy wants to pay homage to Daniel Craig’s 007 swan song, then this is the time for No Time to Die. Licorice Pizza strikes me as too shaggy to show up here, but never count out a PTA picture. Maybe CODA or King Richard?

Longshots: If Don’t Look Up scores here, I’m resigning from the Academy.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up—Nicholas Britell
Dune—Hans Zimmer
The French Dispatch—Alexandre Desplat
No Time to Die—Hans Zimmer
The Power of the Dog—Jonny Greenwood

Comments: Dune and The Power of the Dog are both locks, but beyond that, I’m pretty clueless and am basically just going with composers whom the Academy likes.

Potential upsets: With Spencer, Greenwood could be a double-nominee instead of (or in addition to) Zimmer. Maybe Kris Bowers for King Richard?

Longshots: Pick a movie.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Comments: Unlike with Original Score, I feel good about this. Tragedy of Macbeth is probably my diciest pick, but those sets were awfully sexy.

Potential upsets: I’m guessing Cruella will content itself with a costume design win, but keep an eye on it here. Period pieces are always a threat, so Licorice Pizza, Last Night in Soho, and The Power of the Dog are all in the hunt as well.

Longshots: Maybe Cyrano? (I WOULD LIKE TO WATCH THIS MOVIE.)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Comments: Remember that this field has already been short-listed down to ten contenders. Of those, Dune and Spider-Man: No Way Home are the only locks; the rest is wide open.

Potential upsets: The real question is whether any of the other Marvel films—which include Black Widow, Eternals, and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings—can join Spidey on the ballot. I’m guessing no, but in gunning for The Matrix Resurrections, I’m arguably voting with my heart over my head. The other contenders are Free Guy and Ghostbusters: After Life; I don’t see either getting in, but who knows.

That’s a wrap. The nominations are announced tomorrow, so we’ll be back on Wednesday with some quickie analysis in advance of our category-specific breakdowns in March.