Oscars 2022: The Lead Actors

This is the big one. Sure, we’ll get to Best Picture tomorrow, but my favorite Oscar tradition is analyzing the acting categories—not because I care about who wins, but because I cherish (and agonize over) the process of creating my own ballots. Just remember that whenever you hear the word “snub” in Oscar discourse, it’s almost always misused; there are only five slots in each category, and with so many talented actors working today, it’s extremely difficult to narrow each field to a final quintet.

Such is my labor. Let’s get to work. (And if you missed our takes on the supporting races, you can find those here.)

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Austin Butler—Elvis
Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser—The Whale
Paul Mescal—Aftersun
Bill Nighy—Living

WILL WIN
Mescal and Nighy are out. You can make a strained argument for Farrell, but you’d be more convincing if The Banshees of Inisherin had sweep potential; as it stands, he’s a heavy underdog. So this really comes down to Butler versus Fraser. Both are playing roles that are Oscar-friendly in the classical sense: Butler is impersonating a famous figure, while Fraser suffers physically under gobs of makeup and an enormous fat suit. You can parse this race a million different ways, but in the end it’s virtually a coin flip, so I’m just going to be boring and pick the dude who won at the Screen Actors’ Guild (recall that actors represent the most populous branch of Academy membership). They went with Fraser; so will I.

SHOULD WIN
Farrell. I admire all of these performances, in particular those from Mescal and Nighy, both of whom convey soulful longing through rigorous restraint. But Farrell is a different kind of tragic, sculpting a sweet stupidity that’s hilarious until it proves heartbreaking. He’s a treasure.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Christian Bale—Amsterdam
Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes—The Menu
Jonathan Majors—Devotion
Mark Rylance—The Outfit

Some brutal cuts here. Amsterdam is largely unloved, but Bale reminds you just how effortlessly he can inhabit a role, and how he can be such a charming klutz. Fiennes is pure patrician fury, establishing superiority without ever raising his voice (well, maybe once). Majors is the opposite, mingling brittle self-doubt with quixotic resolve; his monologue to a bathroom mirror is a contender for scene of the year. Rylance is similar to Fiennes, though he brandishes a different sort of quiet lethality.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
John Boyega—Breaking
Paul Mescal—Aftersun
Bill Nighy—Living
Adam Sandler—Hustle
Sebastian Stan—Fresh

Boyega finds notes of anguish within his blustering rage. Sandler again proves that he can deliver a fully rounded performance when he gives a shit. Stan’s smile scares the shit out of you.

Honorable mention: Sterling K. Brown—Honk for Jesus, Save Your Soul; Caleb Landry Jones—Nitram; Viggo Mortensen—Crimes of the Future.

BEST ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Cate Blanchett—Tár
Ana de Armas—Blonde
Andrea Riseborough—To Leslie
Michelle Williams—The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh—Everything Everywhere All at Once

WILL WIN
As with Best Actor, this is essentially a two-person race, with Blanchett battling Yeoh. But this one seems a bit less competitive. Blanchett has already won two Oscars (for The Aviator and Blue Jasmine), and while that hasn’t always dissuaded the Academy in the past—Frances McDormand and Meryl Streep both picked up their third statuettes in recent years—I don’t think voters are desperate to reward her a third time. That’s particularly true given her competition; not only is Yeoh a global action titan, but she’s also the headliner of the movie that is (spoiler alert?) likely to win Best Picture. That should be enough to land her her first Oscar.

SHOULD WIN
Blanchett. No disrespect meant to Yeoh, or to any of the other nominees; de Armas is productively messy, Riseborough commits as usual, and Williams pops off the screen. But Blanchett is a tour de force in Tár, conceiving a character who’s utterly monstrous, yet who’s also smart, gifted, and sad. Lydia Tár may not be a real person, but there’s nothing false about Blanchett’s performance.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Cate Blanchett—Tár
Danielle Deadwyler—Till
Daisy Edgar-Jones—Where the Crawdads Sing
Thandiwe Newton—God’s Country
Aubrey Plaza—Emily the Criminal

As is true every year, cutting this field to five was pure torture. C’est la vie. Deadwyler reveals bottomless grief and rage, yet she never descends into actorly showboating. Edgar-Jones elevates a goofy melodrama into an absorbing character study. Newton’s face expresses a multitude of feelings, few of them happy. Plaza is mesmerizing—and more than a little frightening—from first frame to last.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Aubrey Plaza—Emily the Criminal.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Rebecca Hall—Resurrection
Jennifer Lawrence—Causeway
Keke Palmer—Nope
Anamaria Vartolomei—Happening
Michelle Williams—The Fabelmans

Is this better than my main ballot? I can’t tell. Hall is utterly ferocious, which is what makes her gradual slide into panic so enthralling. Lawrence breaks my heart. Palmer is a fireball, full of spunk and wit and charm. Vartolomei is ruthlessly intelligent, even as her terror mounts. Williams goes for broke in the best possible way.

Honorable mention (deep breath!): Frankie Corio—Aftersun; Mia Goth—X (or maybe Pearl?); Zoë Kravitz—KIMI; Maika Monroe—Watcher; Florence Pugh—The Wonder; Haley Lu Richardson—Montana Story; Margot Robbie—Babylon; Taylor Russell—Bones and All; Tang Wei—Decision to Leave.

Coming tomorrow: Best Director and Best Picture.