Oscars 2022: The Supporting Actors

Here we go. Having blitzed past some technical categories large and small, we now get to the good stuff. This morning, we’re looking at Best Supporting Actor and Actress; later today, we’ll turn to the screenplays.

Let’s start with the boring supporting race first.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Brendan Gleeson—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry—Causeway
Judd Hirsch—The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once

WILL WIN
Quan. He’s won pretty much everywhere (not at the BAFTAs, where Keoghan claimed the prize, but it isn’t much of an Oscar precursor these days), he’s a great campaigner, he stars in the Best Picture frontrunner which has accumulated massive momentum, and he also happens to basically be a co-lead who’s been shunted into the supporting competition (as is standard practice, including with Gleeson this year as well). Across the big eight categories, he’s the closest thing you’ll find to a lock.

SHOULD WIN
This is a solid group, though it feels a bit weird to compare, say, Hirsch’s glorified cameo in The Fabelmans against Gleeson’s weighty turn in The Banshees of Inisherin. I’m particularly pleased to see Henry receive recognition, as he makes a terrific scene partner for Jennifer Lawrence. Still, I think the Academy is on the mark here. Quan really is wonderful in Everything Everywhere All at Once, sprinkling in moments of playful comedy and spiky physicality while also infusing the movie’s cornball themes with genuine sincerity. Bravo.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Brian Tyree Henry—Causeway
Anthony Hopkins—Armageddon Time
Justin Long—Barbarian
Harry Melling—The Pale Blue Eye
Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once

Hopkins is the best thing about Armageddon Time, delivering a twinkly performance that brims with quiet pathos. Long is majestically clueless. Melling shares the screen with Christian Bale and somehow usurps him, inhabiting Edgar Allen Poe with a delightful combination of intensity and flamboyance.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Angela Bassett—Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau—The Whale
Kerry Condon—The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu—Everything Everywhere All at Once

WILL WIN
This one is much, much harder. Chau and Hsu are both toast, but the other three are essentially in a dead heat. I might take Condon if Banshees were playing as more of a heavy hitter overall, but I’m not sure its coattails are all that long anymore. Bassett is technically a slight favorite at this point, and it would hardly be surprising to see the Academy finally honor one of the industry’s hard-working elders. Still, her nomination represents the first for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and while you could argue that qualifies as a breakthrough, I suspect that anti-superhero bias still lurks amid the Academy’s artier bloc; it doesn’t help that Wakanda Forever is a lesser movie than its much-celebrated predecessor. Curtis’ film is far more beloved, and she’s a cherished, long-striving talent in her own right. (It’s possible that she could split votes with Hsu, but the latter’s nomination scans as her reward at this point in her career.) With an extremely low level of confidence, I’m taking Curtis.

SHOULD WIN
Condon. I like the other nominees: Bassett’s mounting desperation, Chau’s quiet decency, Hsu’s nimble versatility. But Condon is simply heartbreaking in Banshees, flashing a sharp intelligence and fiery resolve that combine to mask her inner sorrow.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Kerry Condon—The Banshees of Inisherin
Jennifer Connelly—Top Gun: Maverick
Janelle Monáe—Glass Onion
Rachel Sennott—Bodies Bodies Bodies
Anya Taylor-Joy—The Northman

Connelly brings radiant movie-star glamour to the year’s cheesiest throwback. Monáe pulls the rug from beneath your feet with sly dexterity. Sennott is scarily credible as a crazed narcissist. Taylor-Joy is a force of nature.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Anya Taylor-Joy—The Northman.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Nicole Beharie—Breaking
Sophia Heikkilä—Hatching
Lashana Lynch—The Woman King
Elizabeth Olsen—Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Aimee Lou Wood—Living

I couldn’t justify stretching myself to 10 names for the supporting actors this year, but I had no such difficulty for the women. Beharie is achingly sympathetic as a hostage who understands her captor. Heikkilä is terrifying in her consummate selfishness. Lynch is pure charisma. Olsen miraculously infuses the commercially cluttered MCU with honesty and grief. Bill Nighy justifiably earned the headlines for Living, but the movie wouldn’t work nearly as well as it does without Wood’s tremulous charm.

Coming later today: the screenplays.