Oscars 2023: The Screenplays

Look out, we’ve got some races! Most of the high-profile categories at this year’s Oscars are open and shut, draining any suspense from the announcement of the winners. But the screenplay fields are (har har) a different story. Both races are legitimately competitive, requiring a delicate combination of mathematical analysis and historical intuition. Or you can just guess.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
American Fiction—Cord Jefferson
Barbie—Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer—Christopher Nolan
Poor Things—Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest—Jonathan Glazer

WILL WIN
I’m pretty sure The Zone of Interest is out, and I’m dubious of Poor Things’ chances as well, but the other three are all serious contenders. Barbie is, by any reckoning, the most impressive feat of pure adaptation, given that it turns a child’s plaything into a thoughtful (and hysterical) meditation on modern womanhood. Oppenheimer is a more visibly writerly picture, with reams of dialogue, plus a dual-timeline conceit that calls attention to its own chronology. And American Fiction is the most obviously provocative work, a strident satire of American race relations.

I suppose the key question here is this: Exactly how much stock should you place in precursor wins? American Fiction has been stacking up victories, claiming trophies at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, and Spirit Awards. (It wasn’t nominated at the Golden Globes, which collapses the two screenplay fields into one; meanwhile, the Writers’ Guild hasn’t announced its winners yet this year.) Obviously, there’s minimal overlap between those bodies and the Academy membership, so it’s dangerous to read too much into such wins.

But they surely mean something. Beyond that, American Fiction seems like the type of movie whose screenplay would appeal to Oscar voters; it’s playful, it’s wordy, and it’s thematically insistent (if actually muddled, but never mind that). It’s hardly a sure thing, but that should give it the edge.

SHOULD WIN
This is the one Oscar category where I’m hesitant to weigh in too strongly; an adapted screenplay requires, well, adaptation, and seeing as I’m rarely familiar with the source material, it’s difficult for me to judge the accomplishment. With that in mind—and as much as I admire both Barbie’s invention and Poor Things’ whimsy—I’m taking Oppenheimer here. The prospect of turning a scientific pursuit into a riveting drama is daunting, yet Nolan wields his considerable creative instincts to lend dramatic urgency to scenes of nerds talking about math. He’s a magician.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
All of Us Strangers—Andrew Haigh
Landscape with Invisible Hand—Cory Finley
Oppenheimer—Christopher Nolan
Poor Things—Tony McNamara
The Royal Hotel—Kitty Green and Oscar Redding

All of Us Strangers is so unassuming, its power sneaks up on you, which is a mark of Haigh’s skill as a writer. Landscape with Invisible Hand is 2023’s most shameful marketing failure, but that shouldn’t discount its restless imagination. The Royal Hotel turns a simple bar into a crucible of subjugation.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Oppenheimer—Christopher Nolan.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Anatomy of a Fall—Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
The Holdovers—David Hemingson
Maestro—Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
May December—Samy Burch
Past Lives—Celine Song

WILL WIN
This is a similarly close race, though I perceive it as more of a two-film competition. Those films are Anatomy of a Fall and The Holdovers. The former won at both the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, though again, I’m wary of placing too much weight on those victories. The Holdovers is light and charming, and I can certainly see voters warming to its pleasing blend of redemption tale and coming-of-age story. But Anatomy of a Fall is a courtroom drama, which means it features a lot of dialogue; even better, it’s a French courtroom drama, which means the characters are constantly slinging barbs at one another. That gives it a leg up.

SHOULD WIN
Past Lives. I appreciate the dexterity of Anatomy of a Fall, the sweetness of The Holdovers, and the scathing insight of May December. But Song’s screenplay is a magnificent construction—a time-jumping epic with an intimate scale.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Afire—Christian Petzold
Joyland—Saim Sadiq and Maggie Briggs
Of an Age—Goran Stolevski
Past Lives—Celine Song
Theater Camp—Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt

Afire is a brutally honest movie about the insufferability of writers. Joyland is a sweeping melodrama that also nails its granular details. Of an Age is a feverish love story that’s both tragic and triumphant. Take away Poor Things, and Theater Camp might be the funniest movie of the year.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Past Lives—Celine Song.

Coming tomorrow: the lead actors.