Oscars 2023: The Supporting Actors

And now, we get to the good stuff. Having previously analyzed the odds and ends and the big techies, we move on to the categories that are more likely to provoke excitement, debate, and name-calling. “He’s overacting!” “She disappears into the role!” “How could the Academy have nominated that guy over THAT guy??”

In my view, discussion of the acting categories isn’t especially interesting in terms of who will win (especially not in these two races, which are both veritable locks), or even who should. It’s most valuable as an excuse to publicize my own ballots, which are meant to fend off post-hoc grumblings about “snubs,” and which can be cited (and ridiculed) in perpetuity. Sure, it’s fine years after the fact to kvetch that Lily Gladstone should have been nominated in 2016 for her devastating performance in Certain Women, but how many of you monsters were on record saying that at the time?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Emily Blunt—Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks—The Color Purple
America Ferrera—Barbie
Jodie Foster—Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph—The Holdovers

WILL WIN
Randolph. By my count, she’s already racked up fifty-seven wins on the circuit. This thing is over.

SHOULD WIN
Not the strongest group this year. I like Blunt in Oppenheimer well enough, but she doesn’t pop the way some of the other actors in the movie do. (I’ve convinced myself that this nomination is secret compensation for her Oscar-worthy work in Edge of Tomorrow. Or Looper. Or The Adjustment Bureau. Or The Girl on the Train. Remember what I said about keeping a record with personal ballots?) Ferrera in Barbie is, shall we say, not the most rounded performance. Foster and Randolph are both quite good, but not as good as Brooks; The Color Purple is a flawed film, but it springs to life whenever she’s on screen.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Paula Beer—Afire
Danielle Brooks—The Color Purple
Julianne Moore—May December
Tracee Ellis Ross—American Fiction
Iman Vellani—The Marvels

Beer is a gift to cinema, alluring and incisive and ferociously intelligent. Moore is somehow contemptible and pitiable at the same time. (She’s probably a co-lead in May December, but my ballot for that category is loaded, so one improvises.) Ross’ scenes opposite Jeffrey Wright are the highlight of American Fiction, full of wonderful bickering. Vellani is an oasis of comic delight amid The Marvels’ CGI gloom.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Julianne Moore—May December.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Rasti Farooq—Joyland
Claire Foy—All of Us Strangers
Elle Graham—Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Sandra Hüller—The Zone of Interest
Florence Pugh—Oppenheimer

Farooq breaks your heart without ever raising her voice. Foy adds tenderness and texture to All of Us Strangers’ perpetual longing. Hüller is flat-out terrifying. Would you believe me if I said that Graham is even scarier? Pugh has less screen time than Blunt, but she makes the most of it, turning her character into an open wound.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Sterling K. Brown—American Fiction
Robert De Niro—Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr.—Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling—Barbie
Mark Ruffalo—Poor Things

WILL WIN
Downey Jr. He hasn’t cleaned up quite the same way Randolph has, but he won the big three precursors (BAFTAs, Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes), so there’s no sense betting against him.

SHOULD WIN
This is, pound for pound, a stronger field than its female counterpart. Oddly enough, Downey Jr. is the only one who doesn’t merit contention for me; he does quality work in Oppenheimer, especially in its final scenes, but he doesn’t stand out from the rest of the cast. The other four are all terrific. Brown adds a gentle human dimension to American Fiction without overdoing it, De Niro leverages his own history to cast a daunting shadow over Killers of the Flower Moon, and Ruffalo is gloriously pathetic in Poor Things.

But how many of them sang a Matchbox Twenty song, or equated the patriarchy with horses, or popped into the library to see if they had any books on trucks? Gosling’s imbecility in Barbie is somehow both pathetic and charming, and he throws himself into the role without an ounce of vanity—which is impressive, given that he’s playing such a pompous oaf. He’s Kenough.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Ryan Gosling—Barbie
John Magaro—Past Lives
Jonathan Majors—Creed III
Antoine Reinartz—Anatomy of a Fall
Mark Ruffalo—Poor Things

Magaro adds extraordinary shape to Past Lives, imbuing his third wheel with quiet decency and self-doubt. Majors is discomfitingly persuasive in Creed III (the less said about the natural quality of his performance, the better). Reinartz makes you spend all of Anatomy of a Fall aching to punch him in the face.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Ryan Gosling—Barbie.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Sterling K. Brown—American Fiction
Robert De Niro—Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton—May December
Jason Momoa—Fast X
Luis Zahera—The Beasts

Melton is pure anguish. Momoa is the only person in Fast X who seems to realize that popcorn movies are meant to be fun. Zahera is a deeply disturbing presence.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: ATOMIC TIER
Jason Clarke—Oppenheimer
Matt Damon—Oppenheimer
Alden Ehrenreich—Oppenheimer
Josh Hartnett—Oppenheimer
David Krumholtz—Oppenheimer

How cool must it be to be Chris Nolan? You can find countless Guys to fill out your ensemble drama—guys who range from true-blue movie stars to reliable character actors to hungry youngsters—and you can rely on them to deliver maximum effort and fill out their parts with just the right level of charisma and panache. Lucky dude. Can’t imagine his talent has anything to do with it.

Honorable mention: Jacob Elordi—Saltburn; Daniel Henshall—The Royal Hotel; Holt McCallany—The Iron Claw; Chris Messina—Air.

Coming later today: the screenplays.