Oscars 2018: The Academy Goes with Green Book, and the World Sees Red

Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen in "Green Book"

I don’t hate Green Book.

I want to lead with that, because over the next few days, weeks, and maybe decades, you’re going to be hearing a lot about how bad Green Book is, and how the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences made a dreadful error when they awarded it the Oscar for Best Picture. I’m by no means a fan of the film, but I also don’t think that it’s completely irredeemable. (When I ranked every movie that I watched in 2018, it came in at #113 out of 135, but you could bump it as high as #70 and I wouldn’t put up a huge fight.) It’s very well-acted, it’s paced appropriately, its production values are impressive, and—if you can set aside its regressive politics and simplistic themes—it’s largely enjoyable. I’ve seen worse.

But “I’ve seen worse” is not exactly the type of ringing endorsement that should greet the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. And Green Book, as superficially pleasing as it can be, is not a very good movie. (Regrettably, I never formally reviewed it, though I did register my thoughts on Twitter.) Its screenplay is clunky and predictable, while its message—essentially a childish plea of “Can’t we all just get along?”—is hopelessly crude. Instead of grappling with the complexity and causticity of American race relations, it peddles a fairy tale of white decency and mutual growth. It is sappy, trite, and self-congratulatory. It does not resemble anything close to the best movie of the year. Read More

Oscars 2018: Prediction Roundup

Michael B. Jordan in "Black Panther"

We’ve spent the past six posts analyzing the 21 feature awards to be handed out at this year’s Oscars. Now, in a selfless exercise of service journalism, this post synthesizes all of our predictions and preferences in one handy, annotated location. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)


Best Actor
Will win: Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Viggo Mortensen—Green Book
Worst omission: Jonathan Pryce—The Wife

Best Actress
Will win: Glenn Close—The Wife (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Olivia Colman—The Favourite
Worst omission: Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie—Leave No Trace Read More

Oscars 2018: Best Picture and Best Director

A scene from Alfonso Cuarón's "Roma".

And here we are. Having previously analyzed the other 19 feature categories at this year’s Oscars, we’ve finally arrived at the big guns. For our prior posts, check out the following links:

The lead actors
The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends


BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
Spike Lee—BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay—Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War

WILL WIN
Cuarón. There’s a swelling narrative suggesting that Lee will finally avenge his 29-year-old loss to Driving Miss Daisy by defeating the director of Driving Miss Daisy: Bizarro Edition, aka Green Book. But given that Green Book’s director isn’t even nominated here, that theory doesn’t exactly make a ton of sense. Besides, while Driving Miss Daisy did win Best Picture, Lee didn’t really lose the Best Director race to it in 1989, as neither he nor Bruce Beresford was even nominated (Oliver Stone won for Born on the Fourth of July). So, yeah, that narrative is dumb. Besides, Cuarón won at the guild, and Roma is a technical marvel, so there’s no reason to bet against him here. Read More

Oscars 2018: The Lead Actors

Olivia Colman in "The Favourite"

With the big show just a few days away, we’re entering the home stretch of our Oscars predictions. Today, we’re looking at the lead actors, where one race is far deeper than the other. Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up with Best Director and Best Picture.

If you missed our earlier installments, you can find them at the following links:

The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends


BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Christian Bale—Vice
Bradley Cooper—A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe—At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen—Green Book

WILL WIN
Malek. He’s won the precursor Triple Crown, and while Film Twitter has spent the past two weeks attacking his performance as simplistic, Film Twitter doesn’t vote at the Oscars. It’s possible to suss out a late-game push from the perennially disappointed Cooper, but that strikes me as a false narrative. Malek takes it. Read More

Oscars 2018: The Supporting Actors

Regina King in "If Beale Street Could Talk"

Thus far in our Oscars rundown, we’ve looked at the odds and ends, the big techies, and the screenplays. We’re now getting to the categories that viewers (and even non-viewers) tend to be more passionate about, beginning with the supporting actors.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Amy Adams—Vice
Marina de Tavira—Roma
Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone—The Favourite
Rachel Weisz—The Favourite Read More