Oscars 2019: Best Picture and Best Director

And here we are. After a week spent analyzing 19 different feature categories at this year’s Oscars—including odds and ends, technical fields, supporting actors, lead performances, and screenplays—we’ve finally arrived at the big ones. Let’s get right to it.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Bong Joon-ho—Parasite
Sam Mendes—1917
Todd Phillips—Joker
Martin Scorsese—The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

WILL WIN
It used to be easy; whoever made the winner of Best Picture also won for Best Director. But the two categories have split as often as not in the past decade—five times in the past seven years, in fact—so now things are more complex. You can tie yourself into knots trying to locate points of synergy or disconnect between the two categories, but at this point, I’m partial to essentially ignoring the Best Picture lineup and analyzing the two fields independently.

And on that score, this just has to go to Mendes. He won at the Directors Guild, and he delivered the kind of visible directorial achievement which voters have honored here in the past, even when something else won Best Picture—Alfonso Cuarón for Roma and Gravity, Damien Chazelle for La La Land, Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant. Aesthetically speaking, 1917 is similarly bold and muscular. Plus, it has a legit chance of winning Best Picture anyway. Whoops, there I go again; so much for keeping things separate.

SHOULD WIN
Phillips! Just kidding. (Why so serious?) I’d honestly be happy with any of Bong, Mendes, or Tarantino winning here. (Sorry, Marty.) So let’s give it to Quentin! His movies are so tonally and verbally distinctive that his steady craftsmanship has always gone somewhat unappreciated, and he handles the wild shifts of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with both poise and flair.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Ari Aster—Midsommar
Bong Joon-ho—Parasite
Greta Gerwig—Little Women
Sam Mendes—1917
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The scariest thing about Midsommar is just how much control Aster wields over it. Gerwig imbues Little Women with extraordinary warmth. Bong’s command over Parasite is as masterful as it is invisible.

The Manifesto’s winner: Ari Aster—Midsommar.

BEST PICTURE

NOMINEES
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

WILL WIN
How things have changed. When I quickly recounted this year’s nomination results three weeks ago, I suggested that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was a slight favorite. It’s barely in third place at this point; you could make a nonfrivolous argument that Jojo Rabbit has leapt ahead of it in light of its screenplay wins at the Writers Guild and the BAFTAs. But really, this is a race between two movies: 1917 and Parasite.

And if you want to predict Parasite, I get it. Critics love it. Audiences love it. Actors love it—it won the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild—and actors constitute a greater percentage of the Academy than any other branch. It seems to have momentum on its side. It also happens to be a great movie.

At the same time… do you not remember what won Best Picture last year? How much have things really changed since then? Do you honestly think the Academy is going to vote for a subtitled movie from South Korea when it has a gorgeously made epic war film staring it in the face? Do you realize that the Oscars have literally never awarded Best Picture to a movie in a foreign language? (Sorry, The Artist doesn’t count.)

1917 won at the Producers Guild, which employs the same preferential voting system as the Oscars. It won at the Golden Globes, too. Mendes won at the Directors Guild. And it wasn’t even nominated at the Screen Actors Guild (George MacKay who?), which makes me question the significance of Parasite’s victory there.

Look, this isn’t a done deal. Parasite has a real chance. If someone offers you 2-to-1 odds on Parasite, you should take it. But the question here is simply which movie I think will win, straight-up. And if that’s the question, then there’s no answer other than 1917.

SHOULD WIN
I’d vote for Parasite, but this is a very strong field. If/when 1917 wins, I’ll be fine with it. (Once more, for those in the back: 1917 is a good movie!) I’d also be cool with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or Little Women winning. Or Marriage Story. Hell, even Ford v Ferrari is pretty good.

But if either Jojo Rabbit or Joker somehow wins, burn the Dolby Theater to the fucking ground.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
For that, you’ll have to wait for our official top 10 list, which should be arriving next week.

Enjoy the show, everyone!