Oscars 2019: Prediction Roundup

Before we concatenate all of our Oscar predictions: Did you ever want to listen to me talk about movies? Now you can! The SportsAlcohol team did a brief podcast on this year’s Oscars. We discuss which Best Picture nominee is most likely to be reviled in future years if it wins, why “brutally honest” anonymous ballots are bullshit, and how on earth The Two Popes scored three major nominations. It’s a fun chat. (We also did a much longer podcast on the Best Movies of 2019. Enjoy!)

With that out of the way, here are all of our predictions in a single omnibus post, with links to our more detailed write-ups. Oddly enough, I’ve discovered that the only race I’m emotionally invested in is Best Adapted Screenplay. Go Greta go!

Best Actor
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix—Joker (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Worst omission: Kelvin Harrison Jr.—Luce

Best Actress
Will win: Renée Zellweger—Judy (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan—Little Women
Worst omission: Lupita Nyong’o—Us

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Jojo Rabbit—Taika Waititi (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Little Women—Greta Gerwig
Worst omission: Official Secrets—Gregory Bernstein, Sara Bernstein, Gavin Hood

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Toy Story 4 (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Toy Story 4
Worst omission: Frozen II

Best Cinematography
Will win: 1917—Roger Deakins (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: 1917—Roger Deakins
Worst omission: Long Day’s Journey Into Night—Yao Hung-i

Best Costume Design
Will win: Little Women (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Little Women
Worst omission: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Best Director
Will win: Sam Mendes—1917 (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Worst omission: Ari Aster—Midsommar

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: American Factory (confidence: 1/5)

Best Film Editing
Will win: Ford v Ferrari—Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Parasite—Jinmo Yang
Worst omission: Knives Out—Bob Ducsay

Best International Feature Film
Will win: Parasite (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Parasite
Worst omission: Transit

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Bombshell (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Bombshell

Best Original Score
Will win: Joker—Hildur Guðnadóttir (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Little Women—Alexandre Desplat
Worst omission: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World—John Powell

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Parasite—Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Knives Out—Rian Johnson
Worst omission: Booksmart—Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman

Best Original Song
Will win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”—Elton John and Bernie Taupin (from Rocketman) (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: “Into the Unknown”—Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez (from Frozen II)

Best Picture
Will win: 1917 (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Parasite
Worst omission: Knives Out

Best Production Design
Will win: 1917 (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Parasite
Worst omission: Glass

Best Sound Editing
Will win: 1917 (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Ford v Ferrari

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: 1917 (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: 1917

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Brad Pitt—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Joe Pesci—The Irishman
Worst omission: Wesley Snipes—Dolemite Is My Name

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Laura Dern—Marriage Story (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Florence Pugh—Little Women
Worst omission: Jennifer Lopez—Hustlers

Best Visual Effects
Will win: 1917 (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Lion King
Worst omission: Alita: Battle Angel