Oscars 2017: Best Actor and Best Actress

Gary Oldman, set to finally win an Oscar for "Darkest Hour"

So far in our Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at the technical categories (big and small), the screenplays, and the supporting acting races. Today, we’ll run through the two lead acting categories.

Before getting to the nominees, it’s worth noting that one of these two fields is dramatically deeper than the other this year, and it isn’t the one you’d traditionally expect. Thirteen years ago, in analyzing the acting races for the 2004 Oscars, A.O. Scott lamented that, while one could easily compile an alternative quintet to the five men vying for Best Actor, “no such alternative list present[ed] itself” in the Best Actress field. This disparity stemmed, of course, not from any sort of chromosomal difference in talent between male and female actors but from the regrettable lack of strong leading roles for women.

It would appear—and given that I’m talking about Hollywood, I say this with a measure of skepticism—that things have changed. This year, the Best Actress race is positively loaded, highlighting five exceptional performances while leaving out perhaps a dozen more that merited consideration. On the men’s side, there were still a number of impressive star turns, but it was surely less torturous for Academy members to cull their list to a final five.

Does this mean that Hollywood has solved its diversity problem? Yeah, um, not quite. The majority of big-budget movies still star and are marketed toward men, while the percentage of female directors working in the industry remains appallingly low. But if nothing else, this year’s Best Actress race proves (as if it were in doubt) that Hollywood is loaded with gifted women who can dazzle us when given the chance. With luck, soon more of them will receive the opportunity to display their talents behind the camera as well as in front of it.

On to the Oscars themselves. Let’s lead with the less impressive category: Read More

Oscars 2017: The supporting actors and the screenplays

Allison Janney, a likely Oscar winner for "I, Tonya"

Having previously looked at the technical categories, both big and small, we’re now moving on to the heavy hitters in this year’s Oscars:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Call Me by Your Name—James Ivory
The Disaster Artist—Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan—Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green
Molly’s Game—Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound—Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Read More

Oscars 2017: The big techies

A scene from the visually stunning "Blade Runner 2049"

With the Oscars on Sunday, we’re running through our predictions and preferences for all 21 feature categories. Yesterday, we looked at eight below-the-line fields; today, we’re continuing with some more high-profile technical categories. And by “high-profile” I mean “ones I care about”.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES
Blade Runner 2049—Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour—Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk—Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound—Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water—Dan Laustsen
Read More

Oscars 2017: The little techies

A scene from Pixar's "Coco", likely Oscar winner

Who cares about the Oscars? Nobody, and also lots of people. It’s silly to ascribe too much importance to a self-congratulatory festival, but at the same time, the Academy Awards can help raise the profile of good movies and the talented people who make them. As long as you don’t take them too seriously, you just might end up enjoying yourself.

Plus, the Oscars are an opportunity for uninformed speculation, which is always fun. Over the next five days, we’ll be predicting the winners in the 21 feature categories (sorry, I ignore the shorts). These prognostications are the result of tireless data mining and thorough research. Or I’m just winging it.

Today, we’re running through eight below-the-line fields that can easily swing your office pool if you don’t pay attention. Let’s dig in: Read More

Oscars 2017: Nomination prediction results

Vicky Krieps and Daniel Day-Lewis in Oscar nominee "Phantom Thread"

Well, the Oscar nominations are out, and I hit on 81% of my predictions (56 of 69), which is the exact same percentage I got last year. I’m nothing if not consistently mediocre. Let’s run through some quick analysis of the nominees.

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Florida Project Darkest Hour

Analysis: I was right! And also wrong! More specifically, I was right about the number of nominees (nine rather than eight), and I correctly suspected that Phantom Thread would crack the field. But I definitely did not expect Darkest Hour to show up in place of The Florida Project; clearly, the former’s refined craftsmanship and political message resonated with voters.

Current favorite: It’s tempting to pick The Shape of Water right now, given that it led the field with 13 total nominations (one short of the record). But as we’ve seen in the past with Spotlight and Moonlight, quantity doesn’t necessarily equate to success for the top prize. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards are all still in play. This could go down to the wire (which will be fun!).

Worst omission: War for the Planet of the Apes. Yes, I know, there was no way the Academy was going to highlight a threequel about talking monkeys, but people are sleeping on just how good this movie was. Read More