Oscars

Oscars 2018: The Odds and Ends

Jeremy BeckOscars
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"

Welcome to Oscars Week! If you’re less than excited about Sunday’s annual cinematic gala, you might well be a producer for the show! Suffice it to say that it’s been a rough month for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, as they introduced one dubious revision to the telecast after another—no live song performances; no prior year’s winners as presenters; shunting the announcements for four categories to commercial breaks—only to walk back each change in the face of virulent criticism from the moviegoing public. (And let’s not forget the risible “Best Popular Film” category that was introduced in August before being mercifully scrapped a month later.) Enthusiasm for the ceremony may vary, but this parade of failures has left the sour impression that the people who care least about the Oscars happen to be in charge of running this year’s Oscars.

For my part, I no longer view the Oscars as hugely important. But I still think they have value, both as a historical record—literally, what were they thinking?—and as an opportunity to honor a bunch of movies that are, by and large, pretty good. Sure, I disagree with the Academy’s chosen winners more often than not, but that disagreement doesn’t automatically render their selections terrible. Besides, the arguments are part of the fun.

And so, over the next week, we’ll be running through our predictions and preferences in all 21 features categories (sorry, I don’t weigh in on the shorts because I know absolutely nothing about them). Today, we’re ripping through eight below-the-line fields that I dismissively dub “the odds and ends”, which is just a way to distinguish them from the five other crafts categories that I’m more passionate about. If you happen to care deeply about sound mixing or costume design, I apologize if I’ve insulted you. Also, get over it. Read More

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Oscars 2018: Nomination Prediction Results

Jeremy BeckOscars
Rami Malek in "Bohemian Rhapsody"

This was the first year that I’ve ever attempted to watch the Academy’s livestream of the nominations. I do not recommend it. I know that the Oscars are still a bit behind the times with respect to technology, but you’d think they could figure out how to stream a video of two people reading cue cards without it crashing every 20 seconds.

In any event, my predictions this year were pretty dismal; I hit on just 51 of 69 (74%), a steep drop from the 81% mark that I posted last year. Ordinarily I’d say that’s a good thing, because I’m always in favor of an unpredictable Oscars, but some of the nominees this year were real head-scratchers. But so be it. Let’s take a quick run through the field:

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk Read More

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Oscars 2018: Nomination Predictions

Jeremy BeckOscars
Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper in "A Star Is Born"

Who’s going to host this year’s Oscars? Who cares? True, for some viewers, the Academy Awards are more about the pageantry—the glamour, the outfits, the sheer mass of hundreds of celebrities piling into a single auditorium—than the movies. But for me, to the extent the Oscars matter at all—and they do matter, probably more than we’d like to admit—it’s the way they function as a snapshot of film history. Sure, they’re a ceremony of self-congratulation, but they’re also a statement about the particular cinematic values that the Academy holds at this moment in time.

Does that mean that the Oscars function as some sort of objective arbiter of filmmaking quality? Of course not. But even if it’s silly to get too worked up about which movies win Oscars and which don’t—the upsets! the snubs!—the awards themselves are still worth analyzing and remembering. That’s why, each year, the Manifesto devotes some brief time to covering the Oscars. We’re beginning today with our predictions for the nominations, which will be announced tomorrow. We’ll follow that up with some quick reactions to those nominations on Tuesday, followed by some category-specific analysis in the coming weeks.

Let’s get to it:

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice Read More

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Oscars 2017: Show Recap

Jeremy BeckOscars
Sally Hawkins and Doug Jones in "The Shape of Water"

For a self-referential ceremony that exists mostly to celebrate itself, this year’s Oscars were different. Well, not entirely; in its bold strokes, last night’s telecast kept to the same basic rhythms—the clips, the songs, the montages—that the Academy Awards have been refining for the past nine decades. But many of the speeches and presentations that highlighted this year’s show were decidedly of the moment. At a time when Hollywood is facing a long-awaited reckoning, many of Tinsel Town’s brightest stars used show business’ glitziest stage to speak frankly on the issues that continue to engulf the industry. In that sense, at least, this was not your grandfather’s Oscars.

Beyond that, it was a perfectly decent show, which is to say that it was too long, too dull, and too stiff. In his second straight turn as host, Jimmy Kimmell delivered a decidedly adequate performance, with a few hits—in addition to a dry and well-paced opening monologue, his jet ski bit was an inspired touch, with many winners referring to it in their speeches—a few duds, and one ghastly misfire (the insufferable and interminable Wrinkle in Time bit). He seemed to minimize his own presence this year, which served the tone of this year’s Oscars well; with so much attention on diversity—of sex, of race, of orientation, of national origin—there is only so much that a straight white male host has to say. And at least the predictable callbacks to last year’s envelope fiasco were kept to a dull roar.

For my part, I did rather well in terms of my predictions, hitting on 18 of 21 categories, a marked improvement after my atrocious score last year. And while I often preferred one of the losing nominees (as is usually the case), it was difficult to begrudge most of the winners.

On to a quick recap of the awards, in order of presentation: Read More

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Oscars 2017: Prediction Roundup

Jeremy BeckOscars
James D'Arcy and Kenneth Branagh in "Dunkirk"

With all of our category-specific analysis in the books, here are each of the Manifesto’s predictions for the 21 feature categories at this year’s Oscars. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)

Best Actor
Will win: Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Worst omission: Tom Hanks—The Post

Best Actress
Will win: Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Worst omission: Jennifer Lawrence—mother! Read More

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