Oscars 2018: Nomination Prediction Results

Rami Malek in "Bohemian Rhapsody"

This was the first year that I’ve ever attempted to watch the Academy’s livestream of the nominations. I do not recommend it. I know that the Oscars are still a bit behind the times with respect to technology, but you’d think they could figure out how to stream a video of two people reading cue cards without it crashing every 20 seconds.

In any event, my predictions this year were pretty dismal; I hit on just 51 of 69 (74%), a steep drop from the 81% mark that I posted last year. Ordinarily I’d say that’s a good thing, because I’m always in favor of an unpredictable Oscars, but some of the nominees this year were real head-scratchers. But so be it. Let’s take a quick run through the field:

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk Read More

Oscars 2018: Nomination Predictions

Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper in "A Star Is Born"

Who’s going to host this year’s Oscars? Who cares? True, for some viewers, the Academy Awards are more about the pageantry—the glamour, the outfits, the sheer mass of hundreds of celebrities piling into a single auditorium—than the movies. But for me, to the extent the Oscars matter at all—and they do matter, probably more than we’d like to admit—it’s the way they function as a snapshot of film history. Sure, they’re a ceremony of self-congratulation, but they’re also a statement about the particular cinematic values that the Academy holds at this moment in time.

Does that mean that the Oscars function as some sort of objective arbiter of filmmaking quality? Of course not. But even if it’s silly to get too worked up about which movies win Oscars and which don’t—the upsets! the snubs!—the awards themselves are still worth analyzing and remembering. That’s why, each year, the Manifesto devotes some brief time to covering the Oscars. We’re beginning today with our predictions for the nominations, which will be announced tomorrow. We’ll follow that up with some quick reactions to those nominations on Tuesday, followed by some category-specific analysis in the coming weeks.

Let’s get to it:

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice Read More

Oscars 2017: Show Recap

Sally Hawkins and Doug Jones in "The Shape of Water"

For a self-referential ceremony that exists mostly to celebrate itself, this year’s Oscars were different. Well, not entirely; in its bold strokes, last night’s telecast kept to the same basic rhythms—the clips, the songs, the montages—that the Academy Awards have been refining for the past nine decades. But many of the speeches and presentations that highlighted this year’s show were decidedly of the moment. At a time when Hollywood is facing a long-awaited reckoning, many of Tinsel Town’s brightest stars used show business’ glitziest stage to speak frankly on the issues that continue to engulf the industry. In that sense, at least, this was not your grandfather’s Oscars.

Beyond that, it was a perfectly decent show, which is to say that it was too long, too dull, and too stiff. In his second straight turn as host, Jimmy Kimmell delivered a decidedly adequate performance, with a few hits—in addition to a dry and well-paced opening monologue, his jet ski bit was an inspired touch, with many winners referring to it in their speeches—a few duds, and one ghastly misfire (the insufferable and interminable Wrinkle in Time bit). He seemed to minimize his own presence this year, which served the tone of this year’s Oscars well; with so much attention on diversity—of sex, of race, of orientation, of national origin—there is only so much that a straight white male host has to say. And at least the predictable callbacks to last year’s envelope fiasco were kept to a dull roar.

For my part, I did rather well in terms of my predictions, hitting on 18 of 21 categories, a marked improvement after my atrocious score last year. And while I often preferred one of the losing nominees (as is usually the case), it was difficult to begrudge most of the winners.

On to a quick recap of the awards, in order of presentation: Read More

Oscars 2017: Prediction Roundup

James D'Arcy and Kenneth Branagh in "Dunkirk"

With all of our category-specific analysis in the books, here are each of the Manifesto’s predictions for the 21 feature categories at this year’s Oscars. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)

Best Actor
Will win
: Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Worst omission: Tom Hanks—The Post

Best Actress
Will win: Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Worst omission: Jennifer Lawrence—mother! Read More

Oscars 2017: Best Director and Best Picture

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

In analyzing this year’s Oscars, we’ve already tackled 19 of the 21 feature categories in the following posts:

The little techies
The big techies
The supporting actors and the screenplays
The lead actors

Once more unto the breach:

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Paul Thomas Anderson—Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig—Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan—Dunkirk
Jordan Peele—Get Out
Read More