Oscars

When predicting this year’s Oscar nominations, I suggested that it was highly unlikely that I would do as well as I did last year, when I correctly pegged 40 of the 45 main nominations. And – in what amounts to a twist here at the Manifesto – I was right. I did not do as well as I did last year.

I did better.

Forgive me, but I need to gloat for a bit. I mean, come on, how else am I supposed to celebrate a performance that will (a) earn me no money, (b) generate no job opportunities, and (c) fail to even incrementally increase my odds of getting laid? You don’t have to tell me that my primary passion in life – obsessively following the Oscars – is ultimately meaningless. I know. But if I had a reason for doing this, it wouldn’t be a passion. (There’s an infinitesimal percentage of the population to whom that last sentence makes sense. We’re all unemployed and single.)

Anyway, the hell with the meaning of this exercise. I rocked. I correctly forecast 41 of 45 nominations this year. That comes out to 91%, which is higher than Steve Nash’s career free-throw percentage. I will forever be thoroughly, disproportionately proud of myself as a result. Read More

When Michael Jordan (temporarily) retired from basketball in 1993, after leading the Chicago Bulls to three straight NBA championships, he did it for one reason: He was on top. He had nowhere else to go. He decided to challenge himself through minor league baseball, a disastrous experiment that nevertheless proved what a ruthless competitor he really was.

I bring this up not because I’m nostalgic for Jordan’s greatness on the hardwood but because I’m wondering if I should just quit prognosticating the Oscars right now. When I predicted the Academy’s nominations last year, I hit on 89% of my picks, resulting in a crowing post where I compared myself to Eliza Dushku’s character in “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” and lost half of my readers in the process. Where can I possibly go from here? Maybe I should just switch gears and start pegging the Grammys.

But fuck it. I don’t just want one great year – I want a dynasty. I want to be the John Wooden of Oscar predictions. (And maybe 40 years from now when a woman goes on an even better streak, Geno Auriemma can accuse the media of misogyny.) And I want to prove to my readers that last year was not a Brady Anderson-level flash in the pan but the beginning of a sustained level of greatness. Besides, I can’t walk away from the Oscars – they’re kind of my thing. Read More

This is it. For the convenience of my devoted readership who may or may not have skipped my prior analysis, I’m including a summary of all of my predictions at the end of this post. Now let’s get to the two most important awards of the night.

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds Read More

Want suspense? Look somewhere else. It’s a shame, but of the four acting categories in this year’s Oscar race, three are completely sewn up, while the fourth is hardly a tossup. And while this means I can comfortably pad my prediction stats, it sadly removes any element of intrigue from what are usually among the ceremony’s most intriguing races.

But such is life. Besides, given the sudden drama developing in the Best Picture race (more on that in my next post), it’s rather soothing to be on such firm footing. Let’s get to it.

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker Read More

Now we’re getting somewhere. Having dispensed with the technical categories (in somewhat brisk fashion, I might add), we now move on to what I call the “Big Eight”. Why? Because they’re big – as in important – and there are eight of them. But seriously, while I concede that the majority of film fans aren’t particularly interested in fields such as Sound Editing and Art Direction, I’ll posit that even casual moviegoers may hold a vested interest in the winners of the Big Eight. First up are the screenplays (adapted and original), and they present quite a contrast this year, at least in terms of predicting the winner. One category features a surefire champion, while the other represents the most intriguing competition of all of Oscar-night.

Before I get to the analysis, I want to introduce a new feature of the Manifesto, unique to the Big Eight, called “My Ideal Ballot”. Loyal readers (hi Dad!) will know that in addition to the standard “Will Win” and “Should Win” analyses, I generally include a “Deserving” section, where I enumerate other high-quality contenders that failed to receive a nomination. I’ll continue on that tack, but with “My Ideal Ballot”, I’ll be limiting myself to five choices (including the actual nominees). The theoretical goal is answer a simple hypothetical: If I were an Academy member, what/whom would I nominate? It’s relatively easy to excoriate Oscar voters for their poor cinematic judgment, but I imagine it will be somewhat more difficult to place similar restrictions on my own analysis. We shall see.

Alright, let’s get to it. Read More