Oscars

NOMINEES

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire

Stephen Daldry – The Reader

David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon

Gus Van Sant – Milk

WILL WIN

One of the more nebulous categories at the Oscars – ask the question “So, what does a director actually do?” to 10 different voters, and you’ll probably get at least eight different answers – is also one of the more intriguing. I like the Best Director race not on its own terms but because it provides insight into the Best Picture race. Unlike most races that are determined by tallying votes – political elections, MVP voting, etc. – we never learn the precise tabulation of votes cast for the Oscars. On the surface, it’s impossible to tell whether American Beauty earned a greater margin of victory in winning Best Picture in 1999 than Gladiator did a year later. Read More

NOMINEES

Richard Jenkins – The Visitor

Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn – Milk

Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

WILL WIN

Of the eight major Oscar categories, I think the Best Actor race is the hardest to predict this year (perhaps along with Best Original Screenplay). That isn’t to say my prophecies in the remaining categories are foolproof; the Academy has shown time and again that there’s no such thing as a lock at the Oscars (guh, Brokeback Mountain), and last year’s show featured winners in big races that ranged from legitimately surprising (Marion Cotillard) to “That fucker came out of nowhere!” (Tilda Swinton). But there’s usually at least enough data floating around out there for me to feel comfortable with my selection. This category, not so much. Read More

NOMINEES

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie – Changeling

Melissa Leo – Frozen River

Meryl Streep – Doubt

Kate Winslet – The Reader

WILL WIN

I don’t see either Angelina Jolie or Melissa Leo contending here – Changeling doesn’t have seem to have much steam overall, and I’m wagering that the majority of voters haven’t even seen Frozen River. So we’re left with a trio of candidates: Anne Hathaway as the troubled, lacerating drug addict in Rachel Getting Married, Meryl Streep as the no-nonsense nun in Doubt, and Kate Winslet as … well, I can’t really supply any adjectives to define her role, because doing so would give away multiple plot twists, but she has a German accent and gets naked. Read More

With the Oscar telecast coming up in six days and 12 categories left to go, we’re running a little short on time, so I’m going to have to rip through some of the “minor” categories still remaining. I know my readers are devastated that I won’t be able to devote 2,500 words to Best Costume Design, but sometimes you have to make sacrifices in life for the good of the people. O.K., that kind of sounds like something creepy that Mussolini might have said, but you get the idea.

(If nothing else, this should help everyone fill out your Oscar pools – all three of you who are actually in an Oscar pool.)

BEST ART DIRECTION / SET DECORATION
NOMINEES

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

The Duchess

Revolutionary Road Read More

NOMINEES

Frozen River – Courtney Hunt

Happy-Go-Lucky – Mike Leigh

In Bruges – Martin McDonagh

Milk – Dustin Lance Black

Wall-E – Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon

WILL WIN

Ah, now here’s a category. Gene Siskel always used to say that the Best Original Screenplay nominees comprised the second-most important grouping of the Oscars after Best Picture, and while I rarely agreed with anything Siskel said or wrote, he was on the right path. Cinema, despite being a visual medium, is first and foremost about storytelling, and movies that receive their genesis from an original script represent the pinnacle of filmmaking creativity. This is not to say that an original screenplay is a prerequisite for a great movie – on the contrary, most of my favorite films are based on novels – but that the Best Original Screenplay category is important because it honors screenwriters who advance the boundaries of cinema. Ideally, the winner of the category will be entirely new – we’ll never have seen anything like it. (Hopefully that’s the case here, but we’ll get to that.) Read More