Oscars Analysis 2010: Nomination Prediction Results

When predicting this year’s Oscar nominations, I suggested that it was highly unlikely that I would do as well as I did last year, when I correctly pegged 40 of the 45 main nominations. And – in what amounts to a twist here at the Manifesto – I was right. I did not do as well as I did last year.

I did better.

Forgive me, but I need to gloat for a bit. I mean, come on, how else am I supposed to celebrate a performance that will (a) earn me no money, (b) generate no job opportunities, and (c) fail to even incrementally increase my odds of getting laid? You don’t have to tell me that my primary passion in life – obsessively following the Oscars – is ultimately meaningless. I know. But if I had a reason for doing this, it wouldn’t be a passion. (There’s an infinitesimal percentage of the population to whom that last sentence makes sense. We’re all unemployed and single.)

Anyway, the hell with the meaning of this exercise. I rocked. I correctly forecast 41 of 45 nominations this year. That comes out to 91%, which is higher than Steve Nash’s career free-throw percentage. I will forever be thoroughly, disproportionately proud of myself as a result. Read More

Oscars Analysis 2010: Nomination Predictions

When Michael Jordan (temporarily) retired from basketball in 1993, after leading the Chicago Bulls to three straight NBA championships, he did it for one reason: He was on top. He had nowhere else to go. He decided to challenge himself through minor league baseball, a disastrous experiment that nevertheless proved what a ruthless competitor he really was.

I bring this up not because I’m nostalgic for Jordan’s greatness on the hardwood but because I’m wondering if I should just quit prognosticating the Oscars right now. When I predicted the Academy’s nominations last year, I hit on 89% of my picks, resulting in a crowing post where I compared myself to Eliza Dushku’s character in “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” and lost half of my readers in the process. Where can I possibly go from here? Maybe I should just switch gears and start pegging the Grammys.

But fuck it. I don’t just want one great year – I want a dynasty. I want to be the John Wooden of Oscar predictions. (And maybe 40 years from now when a woman goes on an even better streak, Geno Auriemma can accuse the media of misogyny.) And I want to prove to my readers that last year was not a Brady Anderson-level flash in the pan but the beginning of a sustained level of greatness. Besides, I can’t walk away from the Oscars – they’re kind of my thing. Read More

The 25 Best Songs of 2010

I am not a music snob. I feel it’s important to declare this upfront, as the forthcoming list has the potential to brand me as a hipster indie fan who loathes mainstream pop artists because their music is too inclusive and caters to the low-brow cravings of the slovenly masses. And that honestly isn’t the case. My problem with modern music isn’t one of elitism but awareness. Following the Manifesto’s prior music post, my friend Chuck pointed out that my taste “rarely weaves outside of indie pop/rock,” and that’s typically true, but it isn’t because I don’t like mainstream music – it’s because I’ve usually just never heard it.

See, with movies, I watch so many that I’m generally able to maintain a comprehensive overview of the current state of cinema. Sure, I’m a bit lacking on the foreign film market, and there will always be a handful of obscure low-profile releases that evade my eye, but watching over 100 new releases per year grants me a reasonably informed perspective of the world of film. But with music, the market is so heavily saturated – literally dozens of new albums are released for public consumption every week – that I just don’t have the ability to keep up. (Life as a law student doesn’t help.) Furthermore, the two music websites I peruse regularly – the supremely arrogant Pitchfork Media and the only-marginally more welcoming Onion A.V. Club – tend to employ tunnel vision in championing burgeoning, underground artists at the expense of the Top 40. And while I frequently receive recommendations from my friends Brian and Maloney – both of whom are far more knowledgeable about music than I – their tastes, while not entirely insular, nevertheless tend to be indie-focused. Read More

2010’s great movies thus far. All three of them.

A few months ago, my friend Brent sent me the following email: “Is Robin Hood worth watching for a guy who doesn’t go to many movies?” It was his last phrase that forced me to remind myself of a simple fact: Not everyone is obsessed with movies. Not everyone sees over 100 movies per year. Not everyone considers movies to be among the five most important things in his life, along with his family, his softball team, his PlayStation 3, and Kyle Singler.

So when people ask me whether or not I recommend a certain film, I need to recognize that many people demand excellence from movies in a way that I don’t. Don’t get me wrong, I have high standards for movies – it’s just that, because they’re my preferred method of existence, I can feel satisfied after watching a perfectly decent one as opposed to a truly great one. But if I’m going to recommend a film to someone like Brent – someone who simply doesn’t watch that many movies – then it needs to pass a certain threshold. Read More

Get your subtitles on: Foreign films you need to see

When we were growing up, my sister refused to watch foreign movies. I can’t recall her precise rationale for this, although given how childish we both were at the time, I’m not sure our reasoning processes could have been deemed to have anything resembling a “rationale”. I think she complained about having to read the subtitles, which didn’t make much sense given that she was perfectly literate. Regardless, whenever my father suggested watching a foreign movie, he was met with extreme disdain, not to mention occasional wailing.

Nowadays, armed with the power of a Netflix account, my sister probably watches 5-6 foreign movies each month. This victory over her earlier cinematic xenophobia can largely be attributed simply to growing up, but I’ll tentatively argue that it’s symptomatic of our country’s maturation toward foreign movies as a whole. Over the past decade, films like Amelie, City of God, and Pan’s Labyrinth have gained prominence not just abroad but within American cultural circles (all three earned major nominations at the Oscars, not just for Best Foreign Language Film). As a national collective, our moviegoing tastes have ever-so-gradually expanded, and subtitled pictures lack the stigma they once possessed. Read More