MovieManifesto

This is it. For the convenience of my devoted readership who may or may not have skipped my prior analysis, I’m including a summary of all of my predictions at the end of this post. Now let’s get to the two most important awards of the night.

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds Read More

Want suspense? Look somewhere else. It’s a shame, but of the four acting categories in this year’s Oscar race, three are completely sewn up, while the fourth is hardly a tossup. And while this means I can comfortably pad my prediction stats, it sadly removes any element of intrigue from what are usually among the ceremony’s most intriguing races.

But such is life. Besides, given the sudden drama developing in the Best Picture race (more on that in my next post), it’s rather soothing to be on such firm footing. Let’s get to it.

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker Read More

Now we’re getting somewhere. Having dispensed with the technical categories (in somewhat brisk fashion, I might add), we now move on to what I call the “Big Eight”. Why? Because they’re big – as in important – and there are eight of them. But seriously, while I concede that the majority of film fans aren’t particularly interested in fields such as Sound Editing and Art Direction, I’ll posit that even casual moviegoers may hold a vested interest in the winners of the Big Eight. First up are the screenplays (adapted and original), and they present quite a contrast this year, at least in terms of predicting the winner. One category features a surefire champion, while the other represents the most intriguing competition of all of Oscar-night.

Before I get to the analysis, I want to introduce a new feature of the Manifesto, unique to the Big Eight, called “My Ideal Ballot”. Loyal readers (hi Dad!) will know that in addition to the standard “Will Win” and “Should Win” analyses, I generally include a “Deserving” section, where I enumerate other high-quality contenders that failed to receive a nomination. I’ll continue on that tack, but with “My Ideal Ballot”, I’ll be limiting myself to five choices (including the actual nominees). The theoretical goal is answer a simple hypothetical: If I were an Academy member, what/whom would I nominate? It’s relatively easy to excoriate Oscar voters for their poor cinematic judgment, but I imagine it will be somewhat more difficult to place similar restrictions on my own analysis. We shall see.

Alright, let’s get to it. Read More

We now turn to what I term the “major” technical awards. While I recognize that the vast majority of moviegoers couldn’t care less about evaluating a film’s editing or production design, I honestly believe that the following categories are critical to a picture’s success (or, in some cases, failure). Do I have any evidentiary basis for this belief? No. That’s why I chose not to attend film school, so I can continue making bald claims about cinematic values without having any educational pedigree with which to defend them. It’s more fun this way. Alright, let’s get to it, starting out with most important technical award of the entire ceremony.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar – Mauro Fiore
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson
The White Ribbon – Christian Berger Read More