Oscars 2022: The Lead Actors

Jeremy BeckOscars
Cate Blanchett in Tár; Brendan Fraser in The Whale

This is the big one. Sure, we’ll get to Best Picture tomorrow, but my favorite Oscar tradition is analyzing the acting categories—not because I care about who wins, but because I cherish (and agonize over) the process of creating my own ballots. Just remember that whenever you hear the word “snub” in Oscar discourse, it’s almost always misused; there are only five slots in each category, and with so many talented actors working today, it’s extremely difficult to narrow each field to a final quintet.

Such is my labor. Let’s get to work. (And if you missed our takes on the supporting races, you can find those here.)

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Austin Butler—Elvis
Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser—The Whale
Paul Mescal—Aftersun
Bill Nighy—Living Read More

Read more

Oscars 2022: The Screenplays

Jeremy BeckOscars
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin; Rooney Mara in Women Talking

Our Oscars analysis marches on! Earlier today, we looked at the supporting actors; before that, we analyzed the techies. Now, it’s time to consider the writers.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
The Banshees of Inisherin—Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once—Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans—Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
Tár—Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness—Ruben Östlund

WILL WIN
So just how many Oscars is Everything Everywhere All at Once going to win? It received 11 nominations (two in one category), but realistic estimates can range anywhere from 3 to 8. (I personally have it pegged for six.) The breadth of its reach will likely determine this category, where it’s engaged (at least in my eyes) in a head-to-head competition against The Banshees of Inisherin. In a vacuum, I’d lean slightly toward Banshees, simply because it’s the more writerly conceit. But Everything Everywhere’s restless imagination might also catch voters’ attention, and besides, this race isn’t taking place in a vacuum; both of these movies received plenty of nominations, but only one is a juggernaut. I’m picking Everything Everywhere. Read More

Read more

Oscars 2022: The Supporting Actors

Jeremy BeckOscars
Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Here we go. Having blitzed past some technical categories large and small, we now get to the good stuff. This morning, we’re looking at Best Supporting Actor and Actress; later today, we’ll turn to the screenplays.

Let’s start with the boring supporting race first.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Brendan Gleeson—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry—Causeway
Judd Hirsch—The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once Read More

Read more

Oscars 2022: The Big Techies

Jeremy BeckOscars
A scene from Avatar: The Way of Water

Our weeklong analysis of the Oscars marches on. Yesterday, we looked at seven below-the-line categories; today, we’re looking at five more technical categories—but, like, the cool ones. (I promise, the sexy stuff is coming soon.) Let’s get to it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES
All Quiet on the Western Front—James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths—Darius Khondji
Elvis—Mandy Walker
Empire of Light—Roger Deakins
Tár – Florian Hoffmeister

WILL WIN
Some of the Academy’s omissions in this category are downright flummoxing. But it’s notable that three of the five nominees exhibit more subtle technique than usual, especially when voters in recent years have favored boisterous showmanship. That means this is likely a race between the two more aggressive contenders: All Quiet on the Western Front and Elvis. The latter is certainly flashier, but the former is more intense and disturbing with its grotesque war imagery. I’ll go with All Quiet. Read More

Read more

Oscars 2022: The Odds and Ends

Jeremy BeckOscars
A scene from Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

It’s March 2023, so it must be time to wrap up our coverage of 2022. The Oscars are on Sunday, so per annual tradition, we’ll be spending this week analyzing all of the feature categories. (Sorry, short subjects, maybe next year.) Today, we’re looking at seven different fields that are, shall we say, low-profile.

Get your pools ready! (Do people do Oscar pools?)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

WILL WIN
The general rule here is just to pick Pixar. But for whatever reason (perhaps its lack of a theatrical release?), Turning Red never developed the sort of momentum that most of the studio’s releases easily accumulate. In fact, only two of these movies received a meaningful run in theaters, and only Puss in Boots: The Last Wish actually generated a significant sum of money. That might have meant something a few years ago, but the stigma which once attached to streaming services has slowly eroded. Instead, the likely winner is Pinocchio, which somehow shrugged off the weirdness of being the second such adaptation of the year—three months before it aired on Netflix, Robert Zemeckis’ version landed on Disney+ with a thud—and became a critical smash thanks to its stop-motion artistry. Read More

Read more