Here lies an omnibus post for all of our predictions at this year’s Oscars. By all means, use this as a guide for your own polls, or as a convenient way to mock me for all of my terrible picks.
Best Actor
Will win: Brendan Fraser—The Whale (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Worst omission: Jonathan Majors—Devotion Read More
The two biggest awards at this year’s Oscars feel somewhat anticlimactic—partly because their outcome isn’t exactly suspenseful, and partly because it’s always more fun for me to present my personal choices in the acting categories. Still, the Academy has proved capable of delivering massive surprises at the end of the night, so you can never rule out fireworks. Let’s get to it.
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES
Todd Field—Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund—Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg—The Fabelmans Read More
This is the big one. Sure, we’ll get to Best Picture tomorrow, but my favorite Oscar tradition is analyzing the acting categories—not because I care about who wins, but because I cherish (and agonize over) the process of creating my own ballots. Just remember that whenever you hear the word “snub” in Oscar discourse, it’s almost always misused; there are only five slots in each category, and with so many talented actors working today, it’s extremely difficult to narrow each field to a final quintet.
Such is my labor. Let’s get to work. (And if you missed our takes on the supporting races, you can find those here.)
BEST ACTOR
NOMINEES
Austin Butler—Elvis
Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser—The Whale
Paul Mescal—Aftersun
Bill Nighy—Living Read More
Our Oscars analysis marches on! Earlier today, we looked at the supporting actors; before that, we analyzed the techies. Now, it’s time to consider the writers.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES
The Banshees of Inisherin—Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once—Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans—Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
Tár—Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness—Ruben Östlund
WILL WIN
So just how many Oscars is Everything Everywhere All at Once going to win? It received 11 nominations (two in one category), but realistic estimates can range anywhere from 3 to 8. (I personally have it pegged for six.) The breadth of its reach will likely determine this category, where it’s engaged (at least in my eyes) in a head-to-head competition against The Banshees of Inisherin. In a vacuum, I’d lean slightly toward Banshees, simply because it’s the more writerly conceit. But Everything Everywhere’s restless imagination might also catch voters’ attention, and besides, this race isn’t taking place in a vacuum; both of these movies received plenty of nominations, but only one is a juggernaut. I’m picking Everything Everywhere. Read More
Here we go. Having blitzed past some technical categories large and small, we now get to the good stuff. This morning, we’re looking at Best Supporting Actor and Actress; later today, we’ll turn to the screenplays.
Let’s start with the boring supporting race first.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES
Brendan Gleeson—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry—Causeway
Judd Hirsch—The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once Read More