Oscars Nomination Prediction Results

Poor Jennifer Lopez.

On the one hand, as a rule, I abhor the “Actor X was snubbed!” rhetoric. When a category limits itself to five selections, your favorites invariably find themselves left out; this rarely means that the chosen quintet is drastically inferior. That’s especially true in this bountiful era—our Golden Age of Acting—when every year seems to offer up a dozen or more performances worthy of recognition in each of the four fields. My own ballot in the acting categories hardly ever aligns with the Academy’s, but that doesn’t render their choices indefensible; it’s just a natural consequence of mathematics, the result of a large number being cruelly reduced to a small one. Great performances are inevitably excluded, not because voters didn’t appreciate them, but because they simply admired other work more.

Having said all that: Jennifer Lopez was snubbed. Her performance in Hustlers, full of fire and sadness and compassion, is the quintessential Oscar-worthy performance. It is impossible to conceive of a Best Supporting Actress field without her. The Academy blew it.

But as I discussed yesterday when making my predictions, one of the functions of the Oscars is to facilitate complaining. Their nominal purpose is to honor cinema’s best, but they’re more interesting for what they get wrong, which is what gets people angry (and talking). The only thing worse than an imperfect slate of nominees is a perfect one.

Speaking of predictions, I hit on 83% of mine this year (57 of 69), a decidedly mediocre number. Same as it ever was. On to some quick category-specific thoughts: Read More

This was the first year that I’ve ever attempted to watch the Academy’s livestream of the nominations. I do not recommend it. I know that the Oscars are still a bit behind the times with respect to technology, but you’d think they could figure out how to stream a video of two people reading cue cards without it crashing every 20 seconds.

In any event, my predictions this year were pretty dismal; I hit on just 51 of 69 (74%), a steep drop from the 81% mark that I posted last year. Ordinarily I’d say that’s a good thing, because I’m always in favor of an unpredictable Oscars, but some of the nominees this year were real head-scratchers. But so be it. Let’s take a quick run through the field:

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk Read More

Well, the Oscar nominations are out, and I hit on 81% of my predictions (56 of 69), which is the exact same percentage I got last year. I’m nothing if not consistently mediocre. Let’s run through some quick analysis of the nominees.

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Florida Project Darkest Hour

Analysis: I was right! And also wrong! More specifically, I was right about the number of nominees (nine rather than eight), and I correctly suspected that Phantom Thread would crack the field. But I definitely did not expect Darkest Hour to show up in place of The Florida Project; clearly, the former’s refined craftsmanship and political message resonated with voters.

Current favorite: It’s tempting to pick The Shape of Water right now, given that it led the field with 13 total nominations (one short of the record). But as we’ve seen in the past with Spotlight and Moonlight, quantity doesn’t necessarily equate to success for the top prize. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards are all still in play. This could go down to the wire (which will be fun!).

Worst omission: War for the Planet of the Apes. Yes, I know, there was no way the Academy was going to highlight a threequel about talking monkeys, but people are sleeping on just how good this movie was. Read More

After two straight years of hitting on 80% of our Oscar nomination predictions, the Manifesto improved dramatically this year, rocketing all the way up to… 81% (56 out of 69). The Academy’s choices proved relatively middle-of-the-road, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing—sure, I could (and, in this very post, will) quibble about a few candidates that were unjustly omitted, but for the most part, this year’s nominees constitute a respectable and enjoyable slate of movies. Just keep that in mind when you’re reading a bunch of “The Oscars are out of touch!” hot takes over the next month.

Here’s a quick look at the major categories in light of this morning’s announcement.

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge

Analysis: I went low, they went high. Go figure. Still, although I incorrectly surmised that Hacksaw Ridge would fail to make the cut, I hit on my remaining eight guesses. With the caveat that I’ve yet to see Lion (this weekend!), it’s a strong Best Picture contingent overall; at least four of these nominees are likely to end up on my top 10 list, and the remaining are diverting at worst.

Current favorite: La La Land. The only potential challenger I see is Moonlight, but for it to make headway, the frontrunner is going to have to experience significant backlash. And by “backlash”, I mean something more potent than the current deluge of insufferable “think-pieces” that are popping up online like faux-insightful whack-a-moles. Read More

My modest goal in predicting this year’s Oscar nominations was to exceed my success rate from last year, when I hit on 80% (55 of 69). Well, things really changed this time around, when I connected on… 80%. (Between the variable number of Best Picture nominees and the category ambiguity with Alicia Vikander, there’s some fuzzy math involved, but you’ll just have to take my word for it.) I can’t decide if this means I’m impressively consistent or consistently mediocre.

In any event, there’s plenty to unpack following yesterday’s announcement. Let’s take a quick category-by-category scan through the lineup and see where things stand. Read More