Quick trivia question: Which movie received the second-most nominations at this year’s Oscars (following The Power of the Dog’s twelve)? It wasn’t the emerging Best Picture threat CODA, or the technical marvel West Side Story, or the big-hearted crowd-pleaser Belfast. It was Dune, Denis Villeneuve’s mammoth sci-fi adventure about spice, dreams, and colonialism. In addition to raking in cash (its $108 million domestic haul far surpassed any other Best Picture contender), Dune racked up 10 total Oscar nods, with the Academy clearly admiring its bold visual style and maximalist craft. It’s an impressive showing that recalls Alfonso Cuarón’s Gravity, which also scored 10 nominations in 2013 and won a whopping seven trophies (the third-most of any movie this century, behind The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire), though it failed to win the big prize, falling to 12 Years a Slave.
Dune isn’t winning Best Picture either, but could it match Gravity’s overall tally? In yesterday’s piece, I analyzed eight miscellaneous categories, and while Dune is nominated in three of those, I’m predicting it to fare poorly (winning Sound, but losing both Costume Design and Makeup/Hairstyling). Thus, to keep pace with Cuarón’s smash hit, Dune virtually needs to sweep the following five fields, each of which encompasses a high-profile area of technical filmmaking (and which I’ve historically dubbed The Big Techies). What are its chances? Let’s find out.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES
Dune—Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley—Dan Laustsen
The Power of the Dog—Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth—Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story—Janusz Kaminski
WILL WIN
Over the past decade or so, the Academy has drifted away from its tendency to honor pretty, painterly compositions here in favor of more energetic, visible work. That bodes well for Dune. It doesn’t really feature a signature technique the way past winners have—the long takes of The Revenant or 1917, the black-and-white crispness of Roma or Mank—but it’s an undeniably widescreen picture with sharp colors and sizzling environments. That should be enough.
SHOULD WIN
This is a strong field, even if only two nominees cracked my own ballot. I particularly appreciate the nods for both The Power of the Dog, which makes the grandeur of the Old West hauntingly intimate, and The Tragedy of Macbeth, which makes brilliant use of light and shadow. Still, my heart belongs to West Side Story for the way it combines fluid elegance with visual verve.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
The Green Knight—Andrew Droz Palermo
Last Night in Soho—Chung Chung-hoon
Old—Mike Gioulakis
The Tragedy of Macbeth—Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story—Janusz Kaminski
The dusky colors of The Green Knight feel as if they’ve travelled here from another planet. The fleet camerawork of Last Night in Soho is flat-out dazzling, while the predatory camera in Old is practically a character itself.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Old—Mike Gioulakis.
BEST FILM EDITING
NOMINEES
Don’t Look Up—Hank Corwin
Dune—Joe Walker
King Richard—Pamela Martin
The Power of the Dog—Peter Sciberras
Tick Tick Boom—Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
WILL WIN
Tricky. As with cinematography, this award has skewed bigger in recent years, with films like Hacksaw Ridge, Dunkirk, and Ford v Ferrari all nabbing trophies. That would again seem to augur well for Dune, even if its editing is less hyperactive than the hectic sloppiness of Don’t Look Up or the insistent playfulness of Tick Tick Boom. Still, be wary of this one in your betting pools.
SHOULD WIN
If I could cast a vote for “not Don’t Look Up,” I would; I’ve rarely been so annoyed with the way a movie is so patchily stitched together. I appreciate Tick Tick Boom’s energy, but I’ll go with The Power of the Dog here; it doesn’t feature a wasted frame, and its visual storytelling draws power from its disciplined editing as well as Jane Campion’s keen intelligence.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
The French Dispatch—Andrew Weisblum
The Last Duel—Claire Simpson
The Power of the Dog—Peter Sciberras
West Side Story—Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn
Zola—Joi McMillon
The French Dispatch leaps between its timelines so gracefully, watching it is as fluid an experience as turning the next page in a magazine. The Last Duel is a long movie, but each chapter in its triptych builds cleverly on what preceded it. Every cut in West Side Story is perfectly timed. Zola deserves this nomination for the “Stefani” sequence alone.
MovieManifesto’s winner: The French Dispatch—Andrew Weisblum.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
NOMINEES
Don’t Look Up—Nicholas Britell
Dune—Hans Zimmer
Encanto—Germaine Franco
Parallel Mothers—Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog—Jonny Greenwood
WILL WIN
Zimmer pops up here every few years; this is his 12th nomination, though amazingly he’s only won once, and that was way back in 1994 for The Lion King. You could argue that he’s due, but that’s a slim reed, and one that didn’t pan out four years ago for his spectacular work on Dunkirk (which lost to Alexandre Desplat’s gentler compositions for The Shape of Water). The more compelling argument is, what’s beating Dune here? The most plausible alternatives are Encanto, which probably carries more cachet for its songs than its score, and The Power of the Dog, which might be too understated compared to Zimmer’s bombastic rumblings. Dune takes another.
SHOULD WIN
I have a complicated relationship with Greenwood, but his hypnotic score for The Power of the Dog really is terrific—somehow beautiful and sinister at once.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Come True—Electric Youth and Pilotpriest
Cyrano—Bryce Dessner & Aaron Dessner
Dune—Hans Zimmer
The Power of the Dog—Jonny Greenwood
Zola—Mica Levi
Come True is a little too weird for my tastes, but its chilly electronic score does a hell of a job setting the creepy mood. The National did the score for Cyrano, and there’s no way I’m not nominating a score by The National. Levi’s work on Zola is typically off-kilter, but they use their syncopated style to smart effect.
MovieManifesto’s ballot: The Power of the Dog—Jonny Greenwood.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
WILL WIN
This is where things get dicey for Dune. Yes, it’s the biggest of the nominees, but it isn’t as stately or elegant as the handsome sets of Nightmare Alley or the chilling Gothic interiors of The Tragedy of Macbeth. It could still certainly sway voters with its massive scale—that worked for the astonishing Mad Max: Fury Road six years ago—but I’m not convinced. I’ll take Nightmare Alley in a slight upset.
SHOULD WIN
Really strong group here, but Nightmare Alley is my personal pick as well, thanks to its fusion of classical handsomeness and jagged menace.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Reminiscence
The Tragedy of Macbeth
I rarely get worked up by particular films missing the cut in any category—there are lots of deserving contenders, and five is a small number—but the absence here of The French Dispatch, with its marvelously intricate sets, is obscene. Reminiscence is precisely the kind of genre picture I wish the Academy would honor; its extraordinary memory tank is a thrilling illustration of how movies can use design elements to advance their story as well as dazzle their audiences.
MovieManifesto’s winner: The French Dispatch.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
WILL WIN
This one, on the other hand, isn’t complicated. Dune in a walkover. Sorry, Spider-Man fans, you’ll have to settle for that fake Oscar which might lose to that random Johnny Depp movie.
SHOULD WIN
This is, frankly, a pretty pitiful group. I like Marvel movies well enough, but their effects tend to be repetitive rather than imaginative. At least Dune wields its technology with some variety and a strong sense of scale, even if I’ll never be able to forgive the dude who pointed out that those giant sandworms look like sphincters.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Dune
Finch
Lamb
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections
Kills me to leave off Godzilla vs. Kong here—the rare example of a blockbuster where the CGI bombardments possess actual weight—but as I said, five is a small number. Finch persuasively creates a robot companion for Tom Hanks. Lamb is my annual “less is more” pick, using simple techniques to sly, unnerving effect. Last Night in Soho is similarly invisible, though it features far greater flair. I wish that the action scenes of The Matrix Resurrections were more dynamic, but the effects work is still pretty damn nifty.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Dune.
Coming tomorrow: the supporting actors.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.