Oscars 2013: Nomination Predictions
“Winging it” has never been my strength. I believe in data, in probability, in hard science. I believe that decision-making is a process of ruthless optimization, whereby one weighs the relevant costs and benefits before selecting the appropriate option. I believe in regression to the mean, the unimpeachable truth of mathematics, and the Gambler’s Fallacy. And I generally believe that, if you think rationally about a question long enough, you can arrive at the correct answer. It’s why I spend hours crafting email-screeds to my friends railing about atrocious decisions in sports, like Mike McCarthy choosing to kick the extra point in a two-point game with 11 minutes left, or John Farrell bringing Brayan Villarreal into a tie game
with the bases loaded in the ninth inning while Koji Uehara plays Scrabble in the bullpen. It’s also why my friends in Colorado lovingly (loathingly?) refer to me as a robot. Much like the sneering spice merchant in Game of Thrones, I trust in logic, not passion.
Of course, that spice merchant got his fucking throat cut, suggesting that logic can only get you so far. And really, predicting the Oscars has always been more art than science. As tempting as it can be to pore over the list of winners from, say, the St. Louis Gateway Film Critics Association and attempt to form a conclusion about The Great Gatsby‘s odds of landing a Best Production Design nomination, in the end, I’m never going to be able peer into the collective psyche of the 6,000-plus members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and learn what the hell they’re thinking. Plus, I just started recapping each of the 92 movies I watched in 2013, so I haven’t been able to delve into the nitty-gritty of the Oscar race with my usual demented zeal. Read More