Jeremy Beck

Writing a post-Oscars recap always feels a bit odd, as the Manifesto’s area of expertise is not the telecast itself. (Of course, given the success rate of my predictions this year, it’s questionable whether the Manifesto has any area of expertise. No matter.) So if you’re looking for analysis on just how adorable Quvenzhané Wallis looked, or whether Kristen Stewart was hammered (nope, she just had a broken foot), or the awesomeness of Anne Hathaway’s nipples, you’ll find plenty of fodder elsewhere on the web.

I do, however, want to comment briefly on Seth MacFarlane’s turn as host. From the beginning, MacFarlane made it clear that he knew he was an outsider (“It’s an honor that everyone else said no”), and a prolonged skit with William Shatner – partly painful, partly very funny, particularly the “Flight in sock puppets” bit – instantly established his sheepish, near-apologetic demeanor. In the era of instant micro-analysis and trends on Twitter, where a rabid online audience will ravenously seize on the latest mishap or malfunction, the hosting gig at the Oscars is virtually predetermined for failure. MacFarlane seemed amusingly resigned to that fate from the get-go, with Shatner displaying fake screenshots from the future that read, “MacFarlane worst Oscar host ever”. It’s the sort of self-insulating shtick that can come off as preemptively defensive, but it showcased a cute self-awareness in which MacFarlane acknowledged that he was swimming over his head. Read More

For your annotated pleasure, below are the Manifesto’s official predictions for the 85th Academy Awards. I strongly recommend printing the list out and following it while watching tonight’s telecast – it will allow you to make fun of me that much more quickly when these predictions turn to dust.

One note: I’m changing my prediction for Best Adapted Screenplay from Lincoln to Argo. I made my initial pick way back on January 27, just after Argo had won at the Producers’ Guild and before its momentum really got rolling. Since then, the movie has cleaned up everything in sight, including a critical win with the Writers’ Guild, which has correctly forecast seven of the past eight Oscar winners for Best Adapted Screenplay. I still think Tony Kushner’s more visible screenwriting has a chance to take home the gold, but I’d be foolish not to back Argo at this point.

On to the picks, organized by level of confidence. Remember, I’m omitting the three short categories because I’m as knowledgeable about them as I am about cooking. Read More

And here we are. With such a suspenseful and unpredictable Oscar telecast looming, it’s perhaps disappointing that the big prize is already predetermined. But such is life.

NOMINEES
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty Read More

The last time this category was even moderately exciting was in 2004, when Clint Eastwood won for Million Dollar Baby and held off Martin Scorsese for The Aviator, followed by Eastwood gunning down Scorsese outside a rain-soaked saloon and gravely intoning, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it”. Here’s to some actual suspense for once.

NOMINEES
Michael Haneke – Amour
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild Read More

You know how some baseball teams decide to move in the fences in order to increase home runs? I feel like the movie gods have moved in the fences when it comes to this category. This year’s Best Actor lineup is so loaded, they might as well hold the Oscars at Coors Field.

NOMINEES
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight Read More