Oscars Prediction Roundup

Before we concatenate all of our Oscar predictions: Did you ever want to listen to me talk about movies? Now you can! The SportsAlcohol team did a brief podcast on this year’s Oscars. We discuss which Best Picture nominee is most likely to be reviled in future years if it wins, why “brutally honest” anonymous ballots are bullshit, and how on earth The Two Popes scored three major nominations. It’s a fun chat. (We also did a much longer podcast on the Best Movies of 2019. Enjoy!)

With that out of the way, here are all of our predictions in a single omnibus post, with links to our more detailed write-ups. Oddly enough, I’ve discovered that the only race I’m emotionally invested in is Best Adapted Screenplay. Go Greta go! Read More

We’ve spent the past six posts analyzing the 21 feature awards to be handed out at this year’s Oscars. Now, in a selfless exercise of service journalism, this post synthesizes all of our predictions and preferences in one handy, annotated location. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)

Best Actor
Will win: Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Viggo Mortensen—Green Book
Worst omission: Jonathan Pryce—The Wife

Best Actress
Will win: Glenn Close—The Wife (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Olivia Colman—The Favourite
Worst omission: Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie—Leave No Trace Read More

With all of our category-specific analysis in the books, here are each of the Manifesto’s predictions for the 21 feature categories at this year’s Oscars. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)

Best Actor
Will win: Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Worst omission: Tom Hanks—The Post

Best Actress
Will win: Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Worst omission: Jennifer Lawrence—mother! Read More

For your annotated pleasure, here are each of the Manifesto’s predictions for the 21 feature categories at this year’s Oscars. (Someday, I might start picking the shorts, but not this year.) For the record, I’m pegging La La Land to take home 10 Oscars (one shy of the record), but its total could range anywhere from 6 to 12. Read More

Last year, the Manifesto did a respectable if unextraordinary job predicting the Oscars, hitting on 17 of 21 feature categories. (I never pick the shorts. Deal with it.) We’re hoping to improve this year, though with an unpredictable Best Picture race and multiple heavy hitters competing in the technical fields, things could get dicey.

So be it. Here are the Manifesto’s official Oscar predictions; they’re sorted alphabetically for ease of access, but I’m also including confidence points, just so you can see where I’m shaky and, well, less shaky. Read More