Oscars 2018: Best Picture and Best Director

And here we are. Having previously analyzed the other 19 feature categories at this year’s Oscars, we’ve finally arrived at the big guns. For our prior posts, check out the following links:

The lead actors
The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
Spike Lee—BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay—Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War

WILL WIN
Cuarón. There’s a swelling narrative suggesting that Lee will finally avenge his 29-year-old loss to Driving Miss Daisy by defeating the director of Driving Miss Daisy: Bizarro Edition, aka Green Book. But given that Green Book’s director isn’t even nominated here, that theory doesn’t exactly make a ton of sense. Besides, while Driving Miss Daisy did win Best Picture, Lee didn’t really lose the Best Director race to it in 1989, as neither he nor Bruce Beresford was even nominated (Oliver Stone won for Born on the Fourth of July). So, yeah, that narrative is dumb. Besides, Cuarón won at the guild, and Roma is a technical marvel, so there’s no reason to bet against him here.

SHOULD WIN
If either Lanthimos or Pawlikowski wins here, I’d be content. But the cinematic control that Cuarón exhibits in Roma truly is masterful.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Ari Aster—Hereditary
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Cory Finley—Thoroughbreds
John Krasinski—A Quiet Place
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite

Each of these filmmakers elevated their movies through their sure stewardship and exceptional craft.

The Manifesto’s winner: Ari Aster—Hereditary.

Honorable mention: Wes Anderson—Isle of Dogs; Brad Bird—Incredibles 2; Coralie Fargeat—Revenge; Christopher McQuarrie—Mission: Impossible—Fallout; Boots Riley—Sorry to Bother You; Steven Spielberg—Ready Player One.

BEST PICTURE

NOMINEES
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

WILL WIN
The Oscars are always a little weird, but this year feels especially strange, because while most of the high-profile categories feel relatively set in stone (give or take a potential push from Olivia Colman), the Best Picture race seems completely wide open. Let’s quickly walk through the eight nominees and their respective roads and impediments to victory:

• Black Panther
  Pros: It was a huge hit both critically and commercially; it won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors’ Guild; it has powerful, resonant themes; a victory would defy the notion that the Academy is “out of touch” with mainstream audiences (whatever that means).
  Cons: As a superhero movie, it’s hardly a classical Oscar candidate, which may make it a non-starter for older voters; it wasn’t nominated for its director or its screenplay.

• BlacKkKlansman
  Pros: It’s the most provocative of the nominees, at a time when the Academy may be interested in speaking out for social justice; that aforementioned Driving Miss Daisy narrative may actually be in play here.
  Cons: Its scalding rhetoric may rub some fusty voters the wrong way; it hasn’t landed any big precursor wins.

• Bohemian Rhapsody
  Pros: It won Best Drama at the Golden Globes; it was wildly popular with audiences; it’s a big crowd-pleaser with a joyous final act (the Live Aid reenactment).
  Cons: Many critics absolutely loathe it (the phrase “worst Best Picture nominee ever” has been thrown around a lot, which is absurd but not irrelevant); it wasn’t nominated for its director (ha!) or screenplay; it isn’t a particularly good movie.

• The Favourite
  Pros: It’s a gorgeous period piece, the type which Oscar voters used to routinely lavish awards on; it’s tied for the most nominations with 10; it’s fucking great.
  Cons: It hasn’t delivered any big wins on the precursor circuit, suggesting that its momentum may have stalled out.

• Green Book
  Pros: It won at the Producers’ Guild (typically the surest pre-Oscar indicator), along with winning Best Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes; it’s another crowd-pleaser with strong performances and a purportedly uplifting message.
  Cons: Its “Let’s all get along!” solution to American racism is somewhat dubious; it isn’t very good.

• Roma
  Pros: It won at the BAFTAs; it’s the biggest critical hit of the year; it’s technically stunning; it’s tied with The Favourite for the most nominations.
  Cons: It’s a Netflix release, which may annoy voters who fear that the streaming conglomerate is threatening the sanctity of traditional moviegoing.

• A Star Is Born
  Pros: It delivers old-school Hollywood glamour in spades; it features the appealing dual emergence of an actor-turned-director and a musician-turned-actor; it sports one of the grandest musical sequences in recent cinematic history.
  Cons: Its momentum has completely fizzled, to the point where nobody is really taking it seriously as a Best Picture candidate.

• Vice
  Pros: Still not sure that was Christian Bale.
  Cons: Nobody really seems to, you know, like it.

So where does that leave us? I’m fairly comfortable eliminating Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, A Star Is Born, and Vice. But the other four? It’s anybody’s game.

Still, my sneaking suspicion is that this will come down to Green Book versus Roma, and that’s where I think the preferential ballot becomes the key. I understand that a lot of people like Green Book—I’m not a big fan, but I’ll concede that it’s a mostly enjoyable movie—but how many people love it? In other words, how many voters will rank it #1 on their ballot? In contrast, Roma’s supporters are especially passionate, suggesting that it will land plenty of top overall votes. Now, will it also rank last on the ballots of voters who refuse to even consider a Netflix release? It’s entirely possible. But the preferential ballot favors top-heavy contenders, and I just think that Roma will make the strongest showing up top.

Of course, the Producers’ Guild also uses the preferential ballot, and it went with Green Book, which would seem to poke a sizeable hole in my logic. But the Academy is a different beast, and with a big influx of new members over the past two years—members who are younger and more racially diverse—I’m skeptical that a sufficient chunk of Oscar voters will warm to Green Book’s charms. (I honestly think the auditorium might break out into boos if it wins.)

Maybe I’m just being naïve, or maybe my perception is colored because I think Roma is a better movie. It’s hard to say. But for now, it’s time to make a choice. Roma wins Best Picture.

SHOULD WIN
For the first time since 2006, only one Best Picture nominee made my top 10 list. That one is The Favourite.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Hey, speaking of my top 10 list…

OK, that’s a wrap. Thanks for tuning in this week. We’ll be back on Monday morning with a recap of the big show.