Best Picture

And at last, we’ve arrived at the top dogs. If you’ve missed our prior analysis of all feature categories at this year’s Oscars, you can find specific breakdowns at the following links:

Best Actress and Best Actor
The screenplays
Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Chloé Zhao—Hamnet
Josh Safdie—Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier—Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler—Sinners

WILL WIN
Anderson. You can try to make a case for Coogler, especially if you think Sinners is winning Best Picture. But Anderson has swept the precursors, and even if Sinners pulls the upset in the top prize, the Academy has split its two biggest awards plenty of times in the recent past (though not since 2021, when CODA won Best Picture but Jane Campion won for directing The Power of the Dog). There’s no point predicting anyone else. Read More

You know what’s cool about this year’s Oscars? They’re uncertain. One could even use the word “exciting”! After back-to-back years of heavy sweeps (by Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer), we’re looking at genuine races in a number of major categories, including these two. The suspense is, well, suspenseful. I’m basically guessing in at least five above-the-line fields, and that lack of confidence is oddly freeing.

Fun times. Before we finish our analysis, if you missed our rundowns of the other 18 feature categories at this year’s Academy Awards, you can find them at these links:

The lead actors
The screenplays
The supporting actors
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Jacques Audiard—Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker—Anora
Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
James Mangold—A Complete Unknown Read More

In ideal circumstances, the Oscar would crescendo to its biggest awards, concluding an eventful and surprising night with a final announcement that’s legitimately suspenseful. That ain’t happening this year. The Best Actress race is a corker, and both screenplay categories are coming down to the wire. But when it comes to the big prize, there isn’t a whole lot of mystery remaining.

To quote one of the best movies of 2023 (albeit not one nominated for Best Picture): such is life. Besides, just because the Academy has already made up its mind doesn’t prevent me from announcing my own preferences. I’m sure you’re excited.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Jonathan Glazer—The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things
Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese—Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet—Anatomy of a Fall Read More

The two biggest awards at this year’s Oscars feel somewhat anticlimactic—partly because their outcome isn’t exactly suspenseful, and partly because it’s always more fun for me to present my personal choices in the acting categories. Still, the Academy has proved capable of delivering massive surprises at the end of the night, so you can never rule out fireworks. Let’s get to it.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Todd Field—Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund—Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg—The Fabelmans Read More

And here we are. Our coverage of all 20 feature categories at this year’s Oscars wraps up today with the top two awards, one of which is virtually assured and one of which very much isn’t.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Paul Thomas Anderson—Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh—Belfast
Jane Campion—The Power of the Dog
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi—Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg—West Side Story Read More