Oscars 2018: The Academy Goes with Green Book, and the World Sees Red

I don’t hate Green Book.

I want to lead with that, because over the next few days, weeks, and maybe decades, you’re going to be hearing a lot about how bad Green Book is, and how the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences made a dreadful error when they awarded it the Oscar for Best Picture. I’m by no means a fan of the film, but I also don’t think that it’s completely irredeemable. (When I ranked every movie that I watched in 2018, it came in at #113 out of 135, but you could bump it as high as #70 and I wouldn’t put up a huge fight.) It’s very well-acted, it’s paced appropriately, its production values are impressive, and—if you can set aside its regressive politics and simplistic themes—it’s largely enjoyable. I’ve seen worse.

But “I’ve seen worse” is not exactly the type of ringing endorsement that should greet the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. And Green Book, as superficially pleasing as it can be, is not a very good movie. (Regrettably, I never formally reviewed it, though I did register my thoughts on Twitter.) Its screenplay is clunky and predictable, while its message—essentially a childish plea of “Can’t we all just get along?”—is hopelessly crude. Instead of grappling with the complexity and causticity of American race relations, it peddles a fairy tale of white decency and mutual growth. It is sappy, trite, and self-congratulatory. It does not resemble anything close to the best movie of the year.

So, yeah, the Academy’s choice for Best Picture of 2018 is unlikely to age well. So be it. The Oscars can be as valuable for what they get wrong as what they get right, and while history will not look kindly on the selection of Green Book, the selection is itself a piece of history. What remains to be seen is whether this is a mere blip in the face of trudging progress or the start of a trend reversing course. We’ll find out eventually.

In the meantime, hey, the Oscars just happened! For all the lurching lead-up to the telecast—the stumbling search for a host, the dubious decisions followed by instantaneous reversals—the show itself went relatively smoothly. There was the usual sense of balance—between good speeches and bad ones, between graceful presentations and awkward introductions, between stunning outfits and “Wait is he wearing shorts??”—that accompanies all award ceremonies. The absence of a host went largely unnoticed, while the montages were mostly trim and efficient. (The biggest systemic error was the selection of clips for the actors, most of which failed to properly highlight the performer’s work.) In other words, it was a pretty decent evening of pageantry, and when it comes to the Oscars themselves—unlike the quality of the movies that they should be rewarding—“pretty decent” tends to be as good as it gets.

Let’s briefly run through the categories, in order of presentation:

Best Supporting Actress
Predicted winner: Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Rachel Weisz—The Favourite
Actual winner: Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk

Maya Rudolph, Tina Fey, and Amy Poehler introduced the first award of the night, instantly making the entire universe wish that the trio had hosted the entire show. As your resident killjoy, I must remind you that it’s much easier to ace a three-minute presentation bit than a three-hour hosting gig. (That said, these ladies still slayed.)

Also, King’s speech was fine. She seemed genuinely emotional, which is always nice to see.

Best Documentary Feature
Predicted winner: Free Solo (confidence: 4/5)
Actual winner: Free Solo

No surprise here.

This was followed by Rage Against the Machine’s Tom Morello confidently introducing the Best Picture clip for Vice. In the past, the show had tended to lump these pieces into chunks of two and three apiece; I liked it better this year going individually, even if the heavily edited montages tended to do little justice to their respective films.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted winner: Vice (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: Mary Queen of Scots
Actual winner: Vice

I try not to be too critical of the speeches because it’s tricky to say something memorable in front of thousands of celebrities as a giant clock ticks down. But this one was epically bad, with the three winners helplessly trying to split up a single pre-written speech, resulting in a lumpy and awkward tumble of names.

Best Costume Design
Predicted winner: The Favourite (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: The Favourite
Actual winner: Black Panther

The pendulum swung dramatically here; the dud of that Makeup speech was followed by the giddiest presentation of the night, with Melissa McCarthy and Brian Tyree Henry donning ludicrous garb that paid tribute to the costumes of The Favourite, Black Panther, Mary Queen of Scots, and Mary Poppins Returns. Henry had great fun imitating Michael B. Jordan’s asymmetrical Killmonger hair, but the best part was McCarthy trying to open the envelope with a rabbit. The Oscars can be fun!

Best Production Design
Predicted winner: Black Panther (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Black Panther
Actual winner: Black Panther

Wakanda forever!

Best Cinematography
Predicted winner: Roma—Alfonso Cuarón (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: Roma—Alfonso Cuarón
Actual winner: Roma—Alfonso Cuarón

Tyler Perry rushed through his lines here like he was double-parked, though he did land a dig about how he was actually presenting this category live. Also, let’s give some credit to Cuarón, who had to give four three different acceptance speeches on the night and managed to differentiate each of them.

Emilia Clarke then introduced Jennifer Hudson to perform one of the nominated songs; she also offered to loan her dragons to Ruth Bader Ginsburg. I like Emilia Clarke. I’m told that Hudson sang the song, but I have no recollection of this actually happening.

Best Sound Editing
Predicted winner: First Man (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: A Quiet Place
Actual winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

James McAvoy and Danai Gurira had a blast presenting these awards. Also, regarding my predictions, it was an ugly night for me, as I hit on just 62% (13 of 21). Green Book hosed me a few times, but the movie that I most underestimated was Bohemian Rhapsody, which won four Oscars when I expected it to land just one.

Best Sound Mixing
Predicted winner: A Star Is Born (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: First Man
Actual winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

Stupid sound categories. On the plus side, it was amusingly awkward to watch all of the Bohemian Rhapsody winners refuse to let the words “Bryan Singer” pass their lips.

Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted winner: Roma (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Cold War
Actual winner: Roma

Angela Bassett and Javier Bardem predictably crushed their bit here, with Bardem speaking in subtitled Spanish about the importance of globalism. On the whole, there wasn’t a ton of Trump-bashing on the night but the handful of jabs landed with adequate force.

Speaking of which, following Cuarón’s second acceptance speech, Keegan-Michael Key dropped from the rafters and pretended to struggle to close an umbrella. This was followed by the live rendition of the nominated song from Mary Poppins Returns, which was performed by Bette Midler, who sadly is not Emily Blunt.

Best Film Editing
Predicted winner: Vice—Hank Corwin (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: The Favourite—Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Actual winner: Bohemian Rhapsody—John Ottman

Ugh.

Best Supporting Actor
Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali—Green Book (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Richard E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Actual winner: Mahershala Ali—Green Book

Ali appeared to be somewhat reserved during his speech, which I’m sure some will interpret as a lack of enthusiasm for Green Book overall. Not sure I buy it, though he was certainly more emotional when accepting for Moonlight two years ago.

Best Animated Feature
Predicted winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Incredibles 2
Actual winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This was essentially the opposite of the Makeup speech, with the winners deftly weaving around on stage to ensure that everyone said their brief piece.

Kacey Musgraves and her fabulous dress then introduced the nominated song from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, the rendition of which was approximately four billion times less entertaining than Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson’s performance in the actual movie.

Then, Awkwafina and John Mulaney, who were absolutely delightful together, presented two of the shorts. I don’t pretend to know anything about the shorts, but I do know that the acceptance speech for “Period. End of Sentence.” was legitimately rousing. It’s always cool when winners are genuinely jazzed to win an Oscar and use their speech to vocalize a message.

Best Visual Effects
Predicted winner: Avengers: Infinity War (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: Ready Player One
Actual winner: First Man

Hey, First Man won an Oscar! You should see that movie. Also, I remain convinced that Paul Rudd is himself a visual effect. Either that, or he has a decrepit-looking portrait of himself somewhere in his attic.

This was followed by the smashing live performance of “Shallow”, which reaffirmed that Lady Gaga is an alien who was sent to Earth to rule us all with the sheer power of her voice. Beyond the awesomeness of the performance itself (she belted it out while sitting down!), it was also beautifully staged, with Bradley Cooper eventually ditching his own mic to join Gaga on the piano bench. Moments like this are why it’s worth putting up with the desultory song performances that predominate the Oscars every year.

After that, Krysten Ritter and KiKi Layne presented the final short, which featured a positively joyous speech from Jaime Ray Newman. Please bring her back as a presenter next year.

Best Original Screenplay
Predicted winner: The Favourite—Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: The Favourite—Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Actual winner: Green Book— Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly

Ouch. I tend not to get too personally invested in what wins at the Oscars, but this one stung.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted winner: BlacKkKlansman—Spike Lee et al. (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: If Beale Street Could Talk—Barry Jenkins
Actual winner: BlacKkKlansman—Spike Lee et al.

Maybe it’s just me, but it seemed like Samuel L. Jackson was slightly happier handing this trophy to Spike Lee than he was giving Nick Vallelonga a trophy for Green Book. Lee’s speech—which opened with a bleeped declaration of “Do not turn that motherfucking clock!”—was discursive and maybe not as powerful as it could have been, but he certainly had a lot to say, and he stuck the landing when he brought up the 2020 election.

Best Original Score
Predicted winner: Black Panther—Ludwig Göransson (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: If Beale Street Could Talk—Nicholas Britell
Actual winner: Black Panther—Ludwig Göransson

Nailed it! Great work from Tessa Thompson and Michael B. Jordan on the presentation here as well.

Best Original Song
Predicted winner: A Star is Born—“Shallow” (Lady Gaga et al.) (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: A Star is Born—“Shallow” (Lady Gaga et al.)
Actual winner: A Star is Born—“Shallow” (Lady Gaga et al.)

Ya think?

Best Actor
Predicted winner: Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Viggo Mortensen—Green Book
Actual winner: Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody

No surprise. Sweet speech. Also, for the bean-counters, this meant that the critically drubbed Bohemian Rhapsody won the most Oscars with four, while Green Book, Black Panther, and Roma tied for second with three apiece; no other film won more than one, though all eight Best Picture nominees claimed a prize.

Also, I’ve mostly ignored the introductions to the Best Picture clips in this rundown, but I wanted to applaud The Hate U Give’s Amandla Stenberg, who showed real poise when sharing the stage with an impassioned John Lewis.

Best Actress
Predicted winner: Glenn Close—The Wife (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Olivia Colman—The Favourite
Actual winner: Olivia Colman—The Favourite

Huzzah! This was probably the biggest surprise of the night, and the most welcome one. And Colman made it even better with a deliriously entertaining and heartfelt speech, capped off by a spectacular raspberry blown toward the clock. Long may she reign.

Best Director
Predicted winner: Alfonso Cuarón—Roma (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Actual winner: Alfonso Cuarón—Roma

You have to wonder if Cuarón was saving some of his ammo for one last speech a few minutes later. Whoops.

Best Picture
Predicted winner: Roma (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: The Favourite
Actual winner: Green Book

Sigh. Peter Farrelly’s speech—“We’re the same people”—will do the film’s legacy few favors. But remember, there were tons of good movies made in 2018; the Oscars can be frustrating, but they can never ruin cinema.

Thanks for tuning in. Till next year.