Hey, the Oscars just announced their nominations for the 95th Academy Awards! They were pretty good, except for the ones that were terrible. If you’re a member of the unfortunate class of cinephile who ritualistically follows such matters, you have by now performed the standard series of compulsory reactions: celebrating the precious few overlaps between your own ballot and the Academy’s, bemoaning the collective’s egregious failings of judgment (have I gotten over The LEGO Movie missing in Best Animated Feature in 2014? Reader, I have not), and frantically updating your mental list of favorites to win Best Picture.
In other words, this year was business as usual: a few welcome inclusions, several more head-scratching omissions, and the typical plethora of “Ah well that was inevitable” selections. But for those of you with social lives who are less enmeshed in Academy arcana, let’s quickly run the various categories and how they matched (or didn’t) with my own predictions:
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women TalkingGlass Onion Triangle of Sadness
Analysis: It’s important to remember that this is the only category where every Academy member gets a say (the others are voted on by their respective branches). Still, the overall showing for Triangle of Sadness was pretty fascinating; it only earned three nominations (and it missed out in Best Supporting Actress), but they were three big nominations (Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay). As for Glass Onion, it’ll need to console itself with a lone screenplay nod, though Netflix is hardly grieving; the energy that the company poured into its massive campaign for All Quiet on the Western Front clearly paid off, as the German war thriller received nine total nominations (tied for second-most of any movie in the field).
Current favorite: It’s important to remember that things can remain fluid over the next month—The Fabelmans was the industry favorite as recently as December; now, it’s running a distant third—but this is currently looking like a two-horse race. Betting markets are slightly favoring the genre-bending Everything Everywhere All at Once, but it’s only narrowly ahead of the Irish dramedy The Banshees of Inisherin. Forced to guess now, I’d bet on Banshees; either way, the image should sharpen once the Producers’ Guild announces its winner on February 25.
Glaring omission (we don’t believe in “snubs”): The Northman. By and large, this is a decent Best Picture lineup—four of the movies will likely end up in my own top 10, and I quite like three more—but it’s a shame that the Academy refused to honor Robert Eggers’ gorgeous, bonkers epic in any category.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Field—Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg—The FabelmansEdward Berger—All Quiet on the Western Front Ruben Östlund—Triangle of Sadness
Analysis: See, I told you the directors’ branch would pick a European! Östlund likely won’t crack my own ballot, but I’m nonetheless pleased for him, as he executes Triangle of Sadness’ absurdity with admirable rigor.
Current favorite: Daniels (as Kwan and Scheinert tend to identify themselves). Even if McDonagh’s film triumphs in Best Picture, I don’t see his small-scale work here defeating the freewheeling panache that the duo brought to Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Glaring omission: Park Chan-wook—Decision to Leave. Possibly the year’s most dazzling feat of cinematic imagination, this Korean thriller derives its beauty and verve from Park’s inimitable craftsmanship. (Sadly, it was shut out entirely, including in Best International Feature.)
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett—Tár
Michelle Williams—The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh—Everything Everywhere All at OnceViola Davis—The Woman King Ana de Armas—BlondeDanielle Deadwyler—Till Andrea Riseborough—To Leslie
Analysis: The second-most surprising announcement of the entire slate—Deadwyler missing out for her searing performance in Till—will inevitably carry with it rumblings of voters’ myopia regarding Black actors, especially when combined with The Woman King getting shut out. In any event, in light of her Screen Actors’ Guild nod, de Armas’ appearance isn’t a huge surprise; Riseborough’s is, at least until you dig into the celebrity-driven campaign she apparently launched. (I steadfastly refuse to dig into this; however, I would very much like to see To Leslie, if only its studio—which is theoretically called “Momentum Pictures”—would care to distribute it to my local theater.)
Current favorite: Either Blanchett or Yeoh. If Everything Everywhere builds momentum for a sweep, then Yeoh takes it; if not, Blanchett has the slight edge.
Glaring omission: Aubrey Plaza—Emily the Criminal. I make it a rule never to get too worked up about omissions in the acting categories especially—five is a small number, and there are so many talented performers working today—but that still won’t prevent me from reminding you how electric Plaza is in this spiky, propulsive thriller.
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler—Elvis
Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser—The Whale
Paul Mescal—Aftersun
Bill Nighy—Living
Analysis: Look at that, five by five! Speaking of which, my predictions this year… could have been worse? I went 54-for-70 overall, going perfect in four different categories but missing multiple nominees in six more. Not horrific, but maybe don’t take me to Vegas.
Current favorite: Fraser. Farrell can’t be ruled out if Banshees fever takes over, and Butler has an outside chance, but Fraser’s massive body transformation for The Whale—combined with his general comeback narrative—are likely too enticing for Academy voters to pass up.
Glaring omission: Jonathan Majors—Devotion. His new movie, Magazine Dreams, just turned heads (and stomachs) at Sundance, suggesting that Majors will gain traction with the Academy eventually; his riveting turn as a rugged aviator would have been a great place to start.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett—Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau—The Whale
Kerry Condon—The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Analysis: Well well well, look who’s perfect yet again. (Kindly ignore that this matched the SAG lineup.)
Current favorite: None. I’m fairly comfortable eliminating Chau and Hsu, but Bassett, Condon, and Curtis all have a legitimate shot.
Glaring omission: Rachel Sennott—Bodies Bodies Bodies. Because a podcast takes a lot of work!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson—The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at OncePaul Dano—The Fabelmans Brian Tyree Henry—CausewayEddie Redmayne—The Good Nurse Judd Hirsch—The Fabelmans
Analysis: Whoops, wrong Fabelmans pick! Pleased to see Henry pop up here; with luck, it’ll encourage more people to seek out the excellent Causeway.
Current favorite: Quan. Book it.
Glaring omission: Harry Melling—The Pale Blue Eye. Holding the screen next to Christian Bale is difficult enough; giving the best performance in a movie headlined by Bale is next to impossible. Melling pulls it off with his ornate line readings and persuasive body language.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin—Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once—Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans—Tony Kushner
Tár—Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness—Ruben Östlund
Analysis: Nothing to see here, move along.
Current favorite: To quote Morgan Freeman in Lucy, I have no idea. All five of these are Best Picture nominees! You pick one! (It’s probably Everything Everywhere, but don’t quote me.)
Glaring omission: Turning Red—Julia Cho and Domee Shi. Animated pictures will forever be ghettoized, but it’d be nice if a movie as inventive and touching as Turning Red could earn recognition in a major category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front—Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell
Glass Onion—Rian Johnson
Women Talking—Sarah PolleyShe Said—Rebecca Lenkiewicz Living— Kazuo IshiguroThe Whale—Samuel D. Hunter Top Gun: Maverick— Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie
Analysis: Coming in as the third-most surprising announcement of the morning, I was stunned that Top Gun: Maverick—which whiffed in the Best Director field—landed a nomination for its screenplay. Then again, turning the stupidity of the original Top Gun into a halfway-compelling narrative is kind of impressive.
Current favorite: Women Talking, I guess?
Glaring omission: Happening— Marcia Romano and Audrey Diwan. I’m always hesitant to be too strident with this category because I’m rarely familiar with the original source, and the key to any adapted screenplay is, well, how skillfully it adapts that source. That said, Romano and Diwan deserve credit for taking a simple abortion drama and turning it into the stuff of all-too-plausible nightmares.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front—James Friend
Empire of Light—Roger DeakinsAvatar: The Way of Water—Russell Carpenter Bardo—Darius KhondjiThe Fabelmans—Janusz Kaminski Elvis—Mandy WalkerTop Gun: Maverick—Claudio Miranda Tár—Florian Hoffmeister
Analysis: And here we have the single most shocking announcement of the entire day: both Avatar: The Way of Water *and* Top Gun: Maverick failing to crack this lineup. I am speechless.
Current favorite: After giving him trophies for both Blade Runner 2049 and 1917, the Academy has presumably sated its Deakins thirst, so probably either Elvis or All Quiet on the Western Front.
Glaring omission: Avatar: The Way of Water—Russell Carpenter. I see you, even if the Academy didn’t.
BEST FILM EDITING
Elvis—Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa
Everything Everywhere All at Once—Paul Rogers
Top Gun: Maverick—Eddie HamiltonAll Quiet on the Western Front—Sven Budelmann The Banshees of Inisherin—Mikkel E.G. NielsenThe Fabelmans—Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn Tár—Monika Willi
Analysis: As muscular as this award has trended over the years, I’m fairly perplexed by Western Front missing here, especially given how well the film performed in other areas. But again, every branch can go its own way.
Current favorite: Has to be Maverick. Although, Everything Everywhere was fairly flashy as well…
Glaring omission: Glass Onion—Bob Ducsay. The Knives Out sequel is masterful in how it manipulates time and space, and the precise editing is crucial to that mastery.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front—Volker Bertelmann
Babylon—Justin Hurwitz
The Fabelmans—John WilliamsPinocchio—Alexandre Desplat The Banshees of Inisherin—Carter BurwellWomen Talking—Hildur Guðnadóttir Everything Everywhere All at Once—Son Lux
Analysis: Desplat and Guðnadóttir are both former winners, but that obviously wasn’t enough to impress the music branch.
Current favorite: Could this possibly be The Fabelmans’ only win?
Glaring omission: The Batman—Michael Giacchino. I know that comic-book movies are generally verboten for Oscar voters (though we’ll see if that changes if Angela Bassett wins for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), but Giacchino does some of the best work of his career providing a sonic backdrop for the Dark Knight’s descent into hell.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Analysis: When assessing my expertise, please disregard my 2-for-5 showing in Best Cinematography and instead refer to my perfection here, which represents a far more accurate reflection of my prognostication skills.
Current favorite: Probably either The Way of Water or Babylon.
Glaring omission: Don’t Worry Darling. Sure, Olivia Wilde’s dystopian thriller is risible in parts, but it looks terrific, and its evocation of ’50s suburbia is simultaneously gorgeous and creepy.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: MaverickDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness All Quiet on the Western Front
Analysis: The Doctor Strange sequel plainly needed more dueling music-note battles.
Current favorite: Avatar: The Way of Water. I refuse to consider alternatives.
Glaring omission: Nope. The Academy even managed to shortlist Jordan Peele’s spooky western for this category, and voters still neglected its off-kilter, immersive effects.
That’s all for now. We’ll return to our regularly scheduled programming, but we’ll be back for category-specific breakdowns in March.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.