The nominations for this year’s Academy Awards are set to be announced on Tuesday morning, an annual tradition that’s invariably met with a combination of fanatical nitpicking and performative indifference. It is fashionable, almost mandatory, for critics to express their disdain toward Hollywood’s annual self-congratulatory gala, and for good reason: The Oscars don’t matter. Or at least, they can’t change your attitudes about the specific movies you loved, hated, and argued about. They’re a collective approximation of individual tastes, which inherently makes them a fool’s errand.
And yet, the only thing worse than caring about the Oscars is ignoring them. This isn’t because the Academy somehow confers prestige upon their chosen selections—quite the opposite, as winning an Oscar often carries with it a vaguely negative connotation of middlebrow safeness—or even because its picks can influence the types of movies that awards-hungry studios are more (or less) likely to green-light in the future. It’s because they preserve in amber the industry’s extant preferences and expectations. It is always illuminating to look back and remember the Academy’s choices, whether you do so with fondness (“Hey, remember when The Departed won Best Picture?!”) or exasperation (“Ugh, remember when Green Book won Best Picture?”).
Perhaps you feel differently about those particular titles. What we can all agree on, I hope, is that the Oscars are a wonderful vehicle to spur disagreement. She was snubbed! They picked the wrong one! That cinematography trophy is really a makeup award for his superior work in 2015! Part of the Oscars’ appeal lies in their recursive ability to provoke argument, hyperbole, and annoyance. They’re never more interesting than when they’re wrong, and because they’re wrong a lot, they’re almost always interesting.
Here are our predictions for the nominations at the 95th Academy Awards in 13 major categories (why only 13 instead of 20? Because I felt like it). To be clear, these prognostications derive from rigorous scientific research and definitely aren’t casual picks that I cooked up in five minutes.
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Comments: Seven of these strike me as relative locks; the three I’m less confident in are All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion, and Women Talking. The first two of those are Netflix releases—Western Front just received a big bump at the BAFTAs, where it led the field with 14 total nominations—and this year represents a potential infraction inflection point for the streaming giant’s stature, possibly heralding a future where small-screen merchants are treated as equivalent to Hollywood studios. As for Women Talking, it’s difficult to judge because I’ve yet to see it (I’m rectifying that this weekend), but I’m betting it’s buzzy and topical enough to sneak in.
Potential upsets: This is a crowded field; those last three contenders are vying against at least six viable alternatives. The likeliest interloper is (heavy sigh) The Whale, which scored at the Producers’ Guild; so did Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, but that one seems like more of a stretch. Netflix has yet another contender in the Bollywood hit RRR; if it shows up alongside Western Front *and* Glass Onion, then it’s a massive win for the company. Damien Chazelle’s Babylon divided critics (it mostly rules), but it’s a sumptuous epic about the film industry, so it can’t be counted out. The Woman King is another historical epic, but missing at the PGA would seem to doom it here. And finally there’s the Swedish satire Triangle of Sadness, which is possibly too weird for the Academy’s tastes but could still ride its mix of scabrous playfulness and awards cachet (it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes).
Longshots: Living (would be cool to see this movie someday); Aftersun (probably too small-scale); She Said (both this *and* Women Talking, in this economy?); Till (seems like it’s focused on Best Actress); Pinocchio (the adequate Del Toro one, not the shitty Zemeckis one).
BEST DIRECTOR
Edward Berger—All Quiet on the Western Front
Todd Field—Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg—The Fabelmans
Comments: I was tempted to just match the quintet honored at the Directors’ Guild. But the directors’ branch likes to reward foreign-language filmmakers—recent nominees include Ryûsuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car, Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, and Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War—so I’m betting that Berger gets in here. But at whose expense? Well…
Potential upsets: The most obvious replacement candidate is Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick, both because he made the DGA lineup and because he directed a muscular action movie with impressive aerial sequences. Beyond that, you could make a decent case for the director of any possible Best Picture nominee; the most plausible are James Cameron for Avatar: The Way of Water, Baz Luhrmann for Elvis, and Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness.
Longshots: Pick a potential Best Picture helmer: Sarah Polley for Women Talking? Chazelle for Babylon? S.S. Rajamouli for RRR??
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett—Tár
Viola Davis—The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler—Till
Michelle Williams—The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Comments: I feel… strangely confident about this? Williams missed at the Screen Actors’ Guild, and it’s possible that voters will struggle over whether to place her as lead or supporting, but I think she has enough juice.
Potential upsets: Ana de Armas pipped Williams at SAG for her striking performance in Blonde, plus she’s an emerging star, so she can’t be ruled out. Beyond that, I don’t really buy anyone.
Longshots: Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie (you don’t want to know); Margot Robbie for Babylon (would be cool!); Olivia Colman for Empire of Light (voters love her).
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler—Elvis
Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser—The Whale
Paul Mescal—Aftersun
Bill Nighy—Living
Comments: Butler, Farrell, and Fraser are locks. I feel pretty good about Nighy as well, though I’d feel better if I’d seen the damn movie. Mescal is my shakiest pick, but to the extent that the lovely Aftersun has a campaign machine, I’m betting it throws its weight behind him.
Potential upsets: Adam Sandler scored at SAG for Hustle, but Oscar voters have never warmed to his dramatic work. Ordinarily I’d consider Hugh Jackman for The Son, Florian Zeller’s follow-up to The Father, but that movie seems to be universally loathed. Could Hollywood golden boy Tom Cruise earn his first Oscar nomination of the century for a Top Gun sequel?
Longshots: Gabriel LaBelle for The Fabelmans (younger performers tend to face an uphill climb); Jeremy Pope for The Inspection (nice work shelving this one, A24, classy move).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett—Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau—The Whale
Kerry Condon—The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Comments: This is a match with SAG, and while I was initially tempted to swap out Bassett, her BAFTA nod seems to lock her in. Hsu is arguably on shaky ground, but I think Everything Everywhere All at Once has long enough coattails to accommodate two actors here.
Potential upsets: Jessie Buckley is a prior nominee, and she seems to be garnering the lioness’ share of acclaim for Women Talking, so she has a shot. I’m seeing vague buzz for Carey Mulligan in She Said, but calling her “supporting” in that movie is a total joke. (Speaking of which, Michelle Williams could show up here instead of in Best Actress.)
Longshots: Dolly de Leon for Triangle of Sadness (likely needs a corresponding Best Picture nomination); Nina Hoss for Tár (Blanchett is swallowing all of the acclaim, classic Lydia Tár move); Janelle Monáe for Glass Onion (buttress).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano—The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson—The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan—The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne—The Good Nurse
Comments: Quan is a lock, as are the two Banshees bros. It’s arguably strange that Dano can be supporting in The Fabelmans when Williams is in lead, but LaBelle’s presence gives him cover. The fifth spot is something of a mystery, but I’m going with Redmayne purely on the strength of his nods at SAG, the BAFTAs, and the Golden Globes. (He is very much not a supporting actor in The Good Nurse, but no matter.)
Potential upsets: If Babylon scores a Best Picture nomination, then Brad Pitt could show up here. Maybe Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans?
Longshots: Anthony Hopkins for Armageddon Time (kinda weird he’s been ignored thus far); Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway (so much for CODA cementing Apple as a major awards’ player); Ben Whishaw for Women Talking (if you say so).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin—Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once—Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans—Tony Kushner
Tár—Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness—Ruben Östlund
Comments: This is a match with the BAFTAs. And frankly, they’re all on pretty solid ground.
Potential upsets: I can’t rule out Aftersun here, especially if Mescal lands that Best Actor nod.
Longshots: Babylon? (No.) Elvis? (Please no.) The Menu??? (Hell yes.)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front—Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell
Glass Onion—Rian Johnson
She Said—Rebecca Lenkiewicz
The Whale—Samuel D. Hunter
Women Talking—Sarah Polley
Comments: This could get ugly. Have I ever gone zero-for-five in a category before? Please don’t check.
Potential upsets: I might predict Living if I knew what it was. You can make an argument for Top Gun: Maverick—just not a good argument.
Longshots: Pinocchio? White Noise? Some random sequel?
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front—James Friend
Avatar: The Way of Water—Russell Carpenter
Empire of Light—Roger Deakins
The Fabelmans—Janusz Kaminski
Top Gun: Maverick—Claudio Miranda
Comments: The Fabelmans and the two money-printing sequels should all be fine. The Academy can’t resist Deakins (for good reason). Western Front is my dark horse.
Potential upsets: Babylon has a decent shot here, and I might be underrating Elvis and Tár. How about The Batman, which landed at the guild?
Longshots: [inserts infinite list]
BEST FILM EDITING
All Quiet on the Western Front—Sven Budelmann
Elvis—Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa
Everything Everywhere All at Once—Paul Rogers
The Fabelmans—Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn
Top Gun: Maverick—Eddie Hamilton
Comments: This could go in a million different directions, but when in doubt, stick with glitzy Best Picture nominees that aren’t over three hours.
Potential upsets: Alternatively, consider the Best Picture nominee that is over three hours (Avatar), and the Best Picture nominee that’s over 2.5 hours and isn’t glitzy (Tár).
Longshots: If Babylon shows up here, I want Tobey Maguire to attend the ceremony in character.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front—Volker Bertelmann
Babylon—Justin Hurwitz
The Fabelmans—John Williams
Pinocchio—Alexandre Desplat
Women Talking—Hildur Guðnadóttir
Comments: Just give it to Williams already. Also, in case you haven’t noticed, I’m generally betting that All Quiet on the Western Front will benefit from Netflix’s massive campaign.
Potential upsets: Avatar 2, The Woman King, Wakanda Forever, maybe even Banshees.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Comments: Starting to think The Fabelmans might get a lot of Oscar nominations.
Potential upsets: Glass Onion, Wakanda Forever, The Woman King.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Top Gun: Maverick
Comments: Remember that bigger is better here, at least in the minds of Oscar voters.
Potential upsets: The Academy has already whittled this down to a shortlist of 10; the remaining contenders are All Quiet on the Western Front, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Jurassic World: Dominion, Nope, and Thirteen Lives. Of those five, Western Front is the likeliest to crack the field.
And that’s a wrap. We’ll be back on Wednesday to briefly discuss the nominations after they’re announced.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.