Oscars 2023: The Odds and Ends

Welcome to Oscars week! Over the next five days, we’ll be running through each of the 20 feature categories at the 96th Academy Awards, bestowing upon you our predictions, preferences, and assorted grievances. Will our analysis be rooted in a painstaking combination of industry buzz and historical research? Not remotely. But it’s important to go on record with these things, if only to have the receipts. Ten years after every Oscars, people invariably say things like, “How could the Academy not have nominated that guy for that movie??” Well, unless you file your own contemporaneous ballot before each ceremony as I do, I hereby decree your grumbling invalid.

Today we’re running through six miscellaneous categories—the fields that no normal human cares about, but which might make a difference in your Oscars pool (do people still do Oscar pools?). Let’s get to it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

WILL WIN
And just like that, we’ve got a toss-up! The smart money here seems to favor Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; it made a ton of money, it’s a recognizable commodity, and it happens to be very good. It’s also a sequel, and its predecessor won this award five years ago. The only two sequels the Academy has previously honored here are Toy Story 3 and, er, Toy Story 4. Does that doom Spider-Man’s chances? Not at all; this category has only existed for 22 years, so the sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions.

That said, I suspect voters might be inclined to look elsewhere—specifically to Japan, where Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron earned rave reviews and landed on quite a few critics’ top 10 lists. That’s more anecdotal than significant—remember, the Oscars are not the Critics’ Choice Awards (where, as it happened, Across the Spider-Verse won this year)—but Miyazaki is beloved, and my gut feeling is that voters will want to honor the Japanese master for what might be his final film. Do my guts have shit for brains? We’ll see!

SHOULD WIN
I haven’t seen Robot Dreams yet (nobody has, given that it’s yet to be released on U.S. screens), but beyond that, this is an unusually strong field. I didn’t fully embrace The Boy and the Heron’s angular dream logic, but it’s nonetheless an impressive work, full of bravura imagination. Elemental is a gorgeously designed movie that also offers a sweet romance. And Nimona is a thoughtful and heart-warming fantasy with valuable themes and a powerful silent interlude. Still, at the risk of being basic, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is my clear pick here. It’s more than just visually dazzling; it’s legitimately exciting, with an engaging story and three-dimensional characters that match its aesthetic audacity.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

NOMINEES
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

WILL WIN
I’m not exactly an Oscars expert (those people are weird), but I generally consider myself better informed than 99% of the moviegoing public. The exception is for this category. Even so, based on its title alone, I can tell you to take 20 Days in Mariupol.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

NOMINEES
Io capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

WILL WIN
This was shaping up to be a titanic battle between The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall, both of which were nominated for Best Picture. But then France, in its infinite wisdom, submitted The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy (swell system you’ve got there, Academy), and it failed to secure a nomination. Given that, I can say with some confidence that The Zone of Interest takes the prize.

SHOULD WIN
In contrast to Best Documentary, I typically am knowledgeable about this category. This year, however, the vagaries of the domestic release schedule have conspired against me; neither Perfect Days nor The Teachers’ Lounge ever screened near me, and neither has yet been made available via DVD Netflix my local library. As for Io Capitano, I’m not sure it’s screened in the United States at all. Of the two nominees I have seen, The Zone of Interest is a good movie while Society of the Snow is not. I’ll go with the former.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Afire (Germany)
Anatomy of a Fall (France)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Return to Seoul (France/South Korea)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

You’ve already heard plenty about both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. Afire remains 2023’s best-kept secret, while Return to Seoul offers one of the year’s greatest performances. Joyland will burn your heart to a crisp, then scatter the ashes into the sea.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Afire.

Honorable mention: The Beasts (Spain/France); Godzilla Minus One (Japan); One Fine Morning (France); The Taste of Things (France); Tori and Lokita (Belgium).

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

NOMINEES
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

WILL WIN
Maestro is probably the logical pick here, given that it turned Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein. But I wonder if some voters were less than enamored with the effect, and the transformation isn’t as dramatic as past “OMG can you even recognize that actor??” victors in this category (e.g., The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Bombshell, Vice). I’ll go with Poor Things and Willem Dafoe’s exquisitely carved-up face.

SHOULD BE HERE
Ladies and gentlemen, I invite you to admire the nightmarish makeup of When Evil Lurks. (Honestly, I’m not even sure this is the crew’s doing; I think they just found an actual demon rotting in the woods and pointed a camera at it.)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“The Fire Inside”—Diane Warren (from Flamin’ Hot)
“I’m Just Ken”—Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (from Barbie)
“It Never Went Away”—Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (from American Symphony)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”—Scott George (from Killers of the Flower Moon)
“What Was I Made For?”—Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (from Barbie)

WILL WIN
This is Barbie vs. Barbie. “I’m Just Ken” may have turned into a meme, but “What Was I Made For?” serves as the movie’s emotional climax. Plus, it’s been a whole two years since the Academy gave a trophy to Billie Eilish.

SHOULD WIN
“What Was I Made For?” is suitably affecting, but it mostly functions as, well, a soundtrack—a breathy, non-diegetic tune that accompanies a tender montage. “I’m Just Ken,” in contrast, is a true-blue musical number, one that beautifully conveys Ryan Gosling’s magnificent stupidity.

SHOULD BE HERE
“This may not be the time for a musical performance,” DISAGREE

BEST SOUND

NOMINEES
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning, Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

WILL WIN
You could make an argument for The Zone of Interest—and in fact I will in the subsequent paragraph—but Oppenheimer is the rare Best Picture frontrunner that’s also a muscular, technically immaculate piece of craftsmanship. It should be in good shape here.

SHOULD WIN
I admire Oppenheimer’s sound along with the rest of it, but the aural design of The Zone of Interest is more than just hypnotically precise; it’s crucial to the movie’s entire success. Via distant shots and muffled screams, it quietly draws you into Hell.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Beau Is Afraid
The Killer
Landscape with Invisible Hand
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

The off-kilter universe of Beau Is Afraid is only more unnerving thanks to its sound design. The Killer yanks you in and out of its assassin’s headspace with brilliant shifts in style and volume. Landscape with Invisible Hand makes you feel every alien squelch.

MovieManifesto’s winner: The Zone of Interest.

Coming tomorrow: the big techies.