Now we’re cooking. The past few days, we’ve looked at 2024’s miscellaneous Oscar categories great and small, which means it’s time to dig into the races that might actually interest normal people. First up, the supporting actor races, where the outcomes are virtually assured but my personal preferences are rather less clear.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES
Monica Barbaro—A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande—Wicked
Felicity Jones—The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini—Conclave
Zoe Saldaña—Emilia Pérez
WILL WIN
Saldaña. It helps that she’s the lead of her movie, but that’s not her fault. You can make a half-convincing case for Grande (also a co-lead) if you argue that the Emilia Pérez backlash will preclude Academy members from voting for it in any major category. But Saldaña has been saying all the right things on the circuit, where she’s been scooping up every trophy in sight. With luck, she’ll use her speech to accuse the audience of acting like a baby, making noise, don’t know what to do.
SHOULD WIN
Barbaro does strong work opposite Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown, communicating Joan Baez’s desire and disgust through both plaintive songs and spiky reaction shots. And Jones is gripping in The Brutalist, bringing some much-needed feminine ballast to that film’s hyper-masculine bravado. But I’m going with Grande, who’s very charming and extremely funny in Wicked, showing off not just her musical skill but also her exquisite comic timing.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Monica Barbaro—A Complete Unknown
Toni Collette—Juror #2
Ariana Grande—Wicked
Felicity Jones—The Brutalist
Emily Watson—Small Things
Collette rounds out a complex character with marvelous nuance—sure would’ve been cool if ticket-buyers could’ve seen it. Watson is terrifying in just a handful of minutes; I’m still shuddering from her line reading of “A big nothing.”
MovieManifesto’s winner: Ariana Grande—Wicked.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Gideon Adlon—Miller’s Girl
Adria Arjona—Hit Man
Eiza González—The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Katherine Mallen Kupferer—Ghostlight
Tilda Swinton—Problemista
You’ve never heard of Adlon, but maybe you will someday, given the surprising texture she brings to such an overheated melodrama. I’m mentioning both Arjona and González because they’re both very good actresses, not because they’re obscenely attractive. Mallen Kupferer is a born heartbreaker. You’d think we’ve already seen every quirky variation Tilda Swinton could possibly offer, but Problemista reminds us that she contains multitudes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES
Yura Borisov—Anora
Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain
Edward Norton—A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce—The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong—The Apprentice
WILL WIN
Culkin. This is the single biggest lock of the entire ceremony.
SHOULD WIN
Strong field here: Borisov reveals hidden depths, Norton is devastating in his quiet disappointment, Pearce is a force of nature, and Strong brings glimmers of texture to his impersonation shtick. But I’m good with Culkin taking this. (Yes, he’s a co-lead too, but I’ve mostly given up railing against category fraud.) He’s simultaneously charismatic and anguished, and his itchy energy is the driving force behind A Real Pain’s roiling familial conflict.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain
Willem Dafoe—Nosferatu
Chris Hemsworth—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gabriel LaBelle—Snack Shack
Denzel Washington—Gladiator II
Dafoe brings a beating heart to Nosferatu’s chilly terror. Hemsworth is indecently entertaining and also stealthily sincere. LaBelle has real star quality, so let’s hope he keeps picking good projects as opposed to shaky ones. Speaking of star quality, Washington is the only person involved in Gladiator II who seems to be interested in making an enjoyable movie and not a historical dirge.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Tom Burke—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
David Jonsson—Alien: Romulus
Guy Pearce—The Brutalist
Joseph Quinn—A Quiet Place: Day One
Richard Roundtree—Thelma
Burke does a lot with little. Jonsson infuses his android with crisp, ruthless intelligence. Quinn shows up and instantly kicks A Quiet Place: Day One into a more powerful emotional register. Roundtree is so tender, it makes you wish Thelma ditched its geriatric-hero shenanigans and just focused on its characters.
Honorable mention: Austin Butler—Dune: Part Two; Tom Hardy—The Bikeriders; every hysterical goon from Anora.
Coming later today: the screenplays.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.