We’re moving right along in our analysis of this year’s Oscars. Having previously weighed in on the supporting actors, plus various below-the-line categories, it’s time to wrestle with the world’s dumbest profession: writing. People get paid to do this? Seems absurd.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES
A Complete Unknown—Jay Cocks and James Mangold
Conclave—Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez—Jacques Audiard
Nickel Boys—RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing—Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield
WILL WIN
Conclave. No multiple rounds of voting required.
SHOULD WIN
I’m always hesitant to weigh in too fiercely on this category, because I’m rarely familiar with the source material, and the key to a great adapted screenplay lies in, y’know, the quality of the adaptation. With that in mind, I’ll take Nickel Boys by a hair over Sing Sing, though I’d be fine with either winning. (To be clear, neither will.)
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga—George Miller and Nick Lathouris
Hit Man—Richard Linklater and Glen Powell
Nosferatu—Robert Eggers
The Outrun—Nora Fingscheidt and Amy Liptrot
The Promised Land—Nikolaj Arcel and Anders Thomas Jensen
Furiosa is such a jaw-dropping technical achievement, it’s easy to miss the sweep and elegance of its story. Hit Man nimbly balances procedural tension with romantic comedy. Nosferatu expands beautifully on the 102-year-old original and also features some of this year’s juiciest dialogue. The Outrun turns memoir into majesty. The Promised Land is a grand epic flecked with fine-grained personal detail.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Nosferatu—Robert Eggers.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES
Anora—Sean Baker
The Brutalist—Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain—Jesse Eisenberg
September 5—Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David
The Substance—Coralie Fargeat
WILL WIN
This one’s far trickier. You can throw out September 5, and I don’t think The Brutalist has much of a shot, but the other three are all legitimate contenders, for different reasons: The Substance is the most conceptually ambitious, A Real Pain is loaded with lightning-fast dialogue, and Anora has the longest coattails. Fuck it, I’ll take The Substance, based on the questionable logic that voters will (1) be impressed by its inventiveness, and (2) want to spread the wealth after voting for Baker in Best Director. Unless they vote for Corbet there, hmm…
SHOULD WIN
Anora. I admire the narrow scope and emotional depth of A Real Pain, and The Brutalist is certainly a journey. (As for The Substance, well, it’s a very well-directed and well-acted movie.) But Baker’s empathy is undeniable, and while that obviously shows up in his filmmaking as well as his writing, it starts on the page.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Anora—Sean Baker
Challengers—Justin Kuritzkes
Ghostlight—Kelly O’Sullivan
Juror #2—Jonathan Abrams
Strange Darling—JT Mollner
Challengers exhibits clockwork construction. Ghostlight defines its characters with insight and subtlety. Juror #2 is merciless in how in builds suspense. Strange Darling is a different kind of thrilling, but it executes its twists with both playfulness and precision.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Juror #2—Jonathan Abrams.
Coming tomorrow: the lead actors.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.