Oscars 2022: Nomination Prediction Results

Charlbi Dean and Harris Dickinson in Triangle of Sadness

Hey, the Oscars just announced their nominations for the 95th Academy Awards! They were pretty good, except for the ones that were terrible. If you’re a member of the unfortunate class of cinephile who ritualistically follows such matters, you have by now performed the standard series of compulsory reactions: celebrating the precious few overlaps between your own ballot and the Academy’s, bemoaning the collective’s egregious failings of judgment (have I gotten over The LEGO Movie missing in Best Animated Feature in 2014? Reader, I have not), and frantically updating your mental list of favorites to win Best Picture.

In other words, this year was business as usual: a few welcome inclusions, several more head-scratching omissions, and the typical plethora of “Ah well that was inevitable” selections. But for those of you with social lives who are less enmeshed in Academy arcana, let’s quickly run the various categories and how they matched (or didn’t) with my own predictions: Read More

Oscars 2022: Nomination Predictions

Felix Kammerer in All Quiet on the Western Front

The nominations for this year’s Academy Awards are set to be announced on Tuesday morning, an annual tradition that’s invariably met with a combination of fanatical nitpicking and performative indifference. It is fashionable, almost mandatory, for critics to express their disdain toward Hollywood’s annual self-congratulatory gala, and for good reason: The Oscars don’t matter. Or at least, they can’t change your attitudes about the specific movies you loved, hated, and argued about. They’re a collective approximation of individual tastes, which inherently makes them a fool’s errand.

And yet, the only thing worse than caring about the Oscars is ignoring them. This isn’t because the Academy somehow confers prestige upon their chosen selections—quite the opposite, as winning an Oscar often carries with it a vaguely negative connotation of middlebrow safeness—or even because its picks can influence the types of movies that awards-hungry studios are more (or less) likely to green-light in the future. It’s because they preserve in amber the industry’s extant preferences and expectations. It is always illuminating to look back and remember the Academy’s choices, whether you do so with fondness (“Hey, remember when The Departed won Best Picture?!”) or exasperation (“Ugh, remember when Green Book won Best Picture?”). Read More

Oscars 2021: The Slap and the Slog

Will Smith slaps Chris Rock at the Oscars

For nearly two-and-a-half hours, the 94th Academy Awards were a predictably unpleasant disaster: awkward, arrhythmic, unfunny. They were destined to be aggressively forgettable, and their legacy was likely to be a harsh reputation of the Academy’s baffling decision to announce the awards for eight categories during the red carpet and then “integrate” them into the proper broadcast. It was a dull and haphazard show, one certain to ignite the usual funereal chatter about the Oscars’ supposed irrelevance.

Then Will Smith slapped Chris Rock in the face, and the show morphed into an entirely different type of fiasco—uglier, messier, and undeniably more memorable, albeit for bad reasons. Read More

Oscars 2021: Prediction Roundup

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Over the past week, MovieManifesto has analyzed all 20 feature categories (sorry, short subjects, no offense intended) at this year’s Oscars. In the interest of service journalism, we’re compiling all of our predictions and preferences into this omnibus post. Click on the links to access our write-up for a particular category.


Best Actor
Will win: Will Smith—King Richard (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch—The Power of the Dog
Worst omission: Simon Rex—Red Rocket

Best Actress
Will win: Jessica Chastain—The Eyes of Tammy Faye (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Olivia Colman—The Lost Daughter
Worst omission: Rebecca Hall—The Night House Read More