Oscars 2022: Nomination Predictions

Felix Kammerer in All Quiet on the Western Front

The nominations for this year’s Academy Awards are set to be announced on Tuesday morning, an annual tradition that’s invariably met with a combination of fanatical nitpicking and performative indifference. It is fashionable, almost mandatory, for critics to express their disdain toward Hollywood’s annual self-congratulatory gala, and for good reason: The Oscars don’t matter. Or at least, they can’t change your attitudes about the specific movies you loved, hated, and argued about. They’re a collective approximation of individual tastes, which inherently makes them a fool’s errand.

And yet, the only thing worse than caring about the Oscars is ignoring them. This isn’t because the Academy somehow confers prestige upon their chosen selections—quite the opposite, as winning an Oscar often carries with it a vaguely negative connotation of middlebrow safeness—or even because its picks can influence the types of movies that awards-hungry studios are more (or less) likely to green-light in the future. It’s because they preserve in amber the industry’s extant preferences and expectations. It is always illuminating to look back and remember the Academy’s choices, whether you do so with fondness (“Hey, remember when The Departed won Best Picture?!”) or exasperation (“Ugh, remember when Green Book won Best Picture?”). Read More

Oscars 2021: The Slap and the Slog

Will Smith slaps Chris Rock at the Oscars

For nearly two-and-a-half hours, the 94th Academy Awards were a predictably unpleasant disaster: awkward, arrhythmic, unfunny. They were destined to be aggressively forgettable, and their legacy was likely to be a harsh reputation of the Academy’s baffling decision to announce the awards for eight categories during the red carpet and then “integrate” them into the proper broadcast. It was a dull and haphazard show, one certain to ignite the usual funereal chatter about the Oscars’ supposed irrelevance.

Then Will Smith slapped Chris Rock in the face, and the show morphed into an entirely different type of fiasco—uglier, messier, and undeniably more memorable, albeit for bad reasons. Read More

Oscars 2021: Prediction Roundup

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Over the past week, MovieManifesto has analyzed all 20 feature categories (sorry, short subjects, no offense intended) at this year’s Oscars. In the interest of service journalism, we’re compiling all of our predictions and preferences into this omnibus post. Click on the links to access our write-up for a particular category.


Best Actor
Will win: Will Smith—King Richard (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch—The Power of the Dog
Worst omission: Simon Rex—Red Rocket

Best Actress
Will win: Jessica Chastain—The Eyes of Tammy Faye (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Olivia Colman—The Lost Daughter
Worst omission: Rebecca Hall—The Night House Read More

Oscars 2021: The Lead Actors

Kristen Stewart in Spencer; Will Smith in King Richard

Let’s keep the suspense going! Even if the supporting actor races are fairly boring at this point, that isn’t true of the screenplays, and there’s also legitimate uncertainty in one of the lead races. The excitement is so contagious, it’s spreading across categories!

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Javier Bardem—Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch—The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield—Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith—King Richard
Denzel Washington—The Tragedy of Macbeth Read More