Oscars 2014: Best Actor and Best Actress

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

I say this every year, but modern cinema is blessed with an abundance of high-quality acting talent. You can argue about whether the movies themselves are better or worse than they used to be—I’d suggest that it’s a bit of both—but the caliber of the actors is as good as it’s ever been.

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Steve Carell—Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper—American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch—The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton—Birdman
Eddie Redmayne—The Theory of Everything

WILL WIN
Carell and Cumberbatch are out. American Sniper somehow became a phenomenon late in the season, so it’s possible Cooper could pull an upset here, but his name hasn’t been mentioned as regularly as either Keaton or Redmayne. If you’re pegging Birdman to rip through Sunday’s entire show, then Keaton is the pick here. But as well as Birdman has performed on the circuit, I don’t think it’s ever achieved a Slumdog Millionaire-level of momentum. Redmayne won the Trinity—again, that’s scooping awards at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors’ Guild—and more importantly, he plays a famous historical figure with a physical disability, thereby hitting two of the Academy’s sweetest spots. Eddie Redmayne wins his first Oscar.

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Oscars 2014: The Screenplays (Best Original and Best Adapted)

Keira Knightley and Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Unlike with the supporting actor and actress fields, both screenplay categories are a bit trickier to predict this year. Let’s get to it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Birdman—Alejandro González Iñárritu et al.
Boyhood—Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher—E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel—Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness
Nightcrawler—Dan Gilroy

WILL WIN
It’s tempting to view this as a duel between the two Best Picture favorites in Birdman and Boyhood. But Academy voters tend to broaden their scope a bit with this category, which makes me lean away from the prizefighters and toward The Grand Budapest Hotel. It triumphed at the BAFTAs, and it defeated Boyhood at the Writers’ Guild (Birdman was deemed ineligible). It’s also more writerly than the other two screenplays, with snappy dialogue and a quirky time-jumping structure. Given that the two heavy hitters have failed to separate from one another, I don’t think either has the tidal wave of support that would bring this award in with the tide. The Grand Budapest Hotel bags yet another trophy.

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Oscars 2014: Best Supporting Actor and Actress

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

After starting our Oscar predictions yesterday with the technical categories, both big and small, we now get to the good stuff. Unfortunately, there isn’t much suspense to either of this year’s supporting awards, but there are still plenty of terrific performances to cover.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Robert Duvall—The Judge
Ethan Hawke—Boyhood
Edward Norton—Birdman
Mark Ruffalo—Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons—Whiplash

WILL WIN
Simmons. He’s already won pretty much everything else, sweeping the Holy Acting Trinity of the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors’ Guild, not to mention twenty-nine other awards as recognized by IMDb. Seriously, the guy’s won everywhere from Austin to Vancouver. The only remotely theoretical challenger is Norton in the event of a Birdman sweep, but that’s just not happening. Mark this one in ink.

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Oscars 2014: The Big Techies (Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, and more)

Tony Revolori and Saoirse Ronan in The Grand Budapest Hotel

We’ve already ripped through eight less significant (in this viewer’s opinion) technical categories. Now it’s time to get to the big guns. Not only are these categories independently intriguing, but their winners could also foreshadow some of the night’s more high-profile awards.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES
Birdman—Emmanuel Lubezki
The Grand Budapest Hotel—Robert D. Yeoman
Ida—Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lynzewski
Mr. Turner—Dick Pope
Unbroken—Roger Deakins

WILL WIN
Birdman. Lubezki is on a heater right now after winning for Gravity last year, and besides, the entire movie looks like it was shot on one freaking take. Call that technique facile if you want, but Academy voters are going to respond to it.

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Oscars 2014: The Little Techies (Best Animated Feature, Best Costume Design, and more)

How to Train Your Dragon 2

With the Oscars airing on Sunday, and with the Manifesto having finally wrapped up its rankings of every 2014 release, it’s time to get down to brass tacks and analyze the 21 feature categories. We’ll begin with the technical categories. This post will cover “the little guys”—the fields you probably don’t care that much about but that nevertheless recognize important contributions to a movie’s overall worth.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

WILL WIN
The LEGO Movie. Guh. But with the year’s most critically and commercially successful animated film mysteriously missing the cut, there’s a bit of intrigue to be found here. The Boxtrolls has its admirers, but in all likelihood, this will come down to a battle between two studio-backed heavy hitters in Fox’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Disney’s (not Pixar’s, as my friend Katie chastised me last month) Big Hero 6. The former is arguably at a disadvantage because it’s a sequel, whereas the latter is an original production (in case you’re confused, Big Hero 6 is not the sixth installment in the “Big Hero” franchise). In the brief 13-year history of this category, the only retread to win the award is Toy Story 3 (defeating the original How to Train Your Dragon, in point of fact), and that was also a Best Picture nominee—How to Train Your Dragon 2 isn’t operating with that level of cachet. Still, it’s a more classically beautifully and stirring film than the fun but familiar Big Hero 6, and I’m guessing voters will respond to its childlike sense of wonder. How to Train Your Dragon 2 takes it.

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