MovieManifesto

Oscars 2018: Prediction Roundup

February 23, 2019March 5, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

We’ve spent the past six posts analyzing the 21 feature awards to be handed out at this year’s Oscars. Now, in a selfless exercise of service journalism, this post synthesizes all of our predictions and preferences in one handy, annotated location. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)

Best Actor
Will win: Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Viggo Mortensen—Green Book
Worst omission: Jonathan Pryce—The Wife

Best Actress
Will win: Glenn Close—The Wife (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Olivia Colman—The Favourite
Worst omission: Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie—Leave No Trace Read More

Oscars 2018: Best Picture and Best Director

February 22, 2019March 5, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

And here we are. Having previously analyzed the other 19 feature categories at this year’s Oscars, we’ve finally arrived at the big guns. For our prior posts, check out the following links:

The lead actors
The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
Spike Lee—BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay—Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War

WILL WIN
Cuarón. There’s a swelling narrative suggesting that Lee will finally avenge his 29-year-old loss to Driving Miss Daisy by defeating the director of Driving Miss Daisy: Bizarro Edition, aka Green Book. But given that Green Book’s director isn’t even nominated here, that theory doesn’t exactly make a ton of sense. Besides, while Driving Miss Daisy did win Best Picture, Lee didn’t really lose the Best Director race to it in 1989, as neither he nor Bruce Beresford was even nominated (Oliver Stone won for Born on the Fourth of July). So, yeah, that narrative is dumb. Besides, Cuarón won at the guild, and Roma is a technical marvel, so there’s no reason to bet against him here. Read More

Oscars 2018: The Lead Actors

February 21, 2019March 5, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

With the big show just a few days away, we’re entering the home stretch of our Oscars predictions. Today, we’re looking at the lead actors, where one race is far deeper than the other. Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up with Best Director and Best Picture.

If you missed our earlier installments, you can find them at the following links:

The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Christian Bale—Vice
Bradley Cooper—A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe—At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen—Green Book

WILL WIN
Malek. He’s won the precursor Triple Crown, and while Film Twitter has spent the past two weeks attacking his performance as simplistic, Film Twitter doesn’t vote at the Oscars. It’s possible to suss out a late-game push from the perennially disappointed Cooper, but that strikes me as a false narrative. Malek takes it. Read More

Oscars 2018: The Supporting Actors

February 20, 2019March 5, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

Regina King in "If Beale Street Could Talk"

Thus far in our Oscars rundown, we’ve looked at the odds and ends, the big techies, and the screenplays. We’re now getting to the categories that viewers (and even non-viewers) tend to be more passionate about, beginning with the supporting actors.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Amy Adams—Vice
Marina de Tavira—Roma
Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone—The Favourite
Rachel Weisz—The Favourite Read More

Oscars 2018: The Screenplays

February 19, 2019March 5, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

Adam Driver and John David Washington in "BlacKkKlansman"

Thus far in our walkthrough of the Oscars, we’ve looked at some miscellaneous technical categories and some higher-profile technical fields. Now we’re getting to the good stuff, beginning with the screenplays.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs—Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman—Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?—Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk—Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born—Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters Read More