Movie critics love telling people how little we care about the Oscars, which is why we spend every year rigorously predicting, analyzing, and castigating them. It is true, of course, that the blessing of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences confers no special level of excellence upon the chosen films; it certainly doesn’t change personal opinions of them. But if the Oscars are meaningless, they are at least meaningless in a meaningful way. Even as the Academy has diversified its membership such that it’s no longer exclusively run by old white guys, the Oscars still function as a form of fossilizing—preserving in amber the tastes and trends of a particular cinematic epoch. They allow future generations of movie-lovers to look back and ask in puzzlement, “What the fuck were they thinking?”
There are worse questions to ask, and to have answered. And so, per tradition, we here at MovieManifesto now embark on our annual scrutiny of the Oscars—a ritual characterized not by scientific precision or sober reasoning, but by random guesswork and snotty resentment. It’s fun!
Here lie our predictions for the nominations of 14 feature categories of the 96th Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Thoughts: This is arguably cheating, given that I’m copying the 10-film slate from the Producers Guild. But what exactly should I take out? Perhaps The Zone of Interest is too chilly for the Academy (it’s difficult for me to conjecture, given that I won’t be able to see the movie until this weekend), or maybe they won’t want to honor a Netflix release like Maestro. But this still seems like a fairly solid set.
Potential upsets: The likeliest interloper here is Todd Haynes’ May December, but it’s questionable whether Academy voters will embrace its caustic view of scandal as entertainment. I’m hearing rumblings about Emerald Fennell’s Saltburn, but it’s hard for me to believe such a vulgar (if enjoyable) provocation could crack the field. The Color Purple was earning buzz prior to its Christmas release, but then the movie came out and fizzled; same for Michael Mann’s Ferrari.
Longshots: All of Us Strangers (do people know this movie exists?); Origin (ibid); The Iron Claw (late release date seemed to hurt it); Napoleon (“You think you’re so great because you have boats!”); Air (lol no).
BEST DIRECTOR
Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things
Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne—The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese—Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet—Anatomy of a Fall
Thoughts: Nolan and Scorsese are locks, and I feel reasonably confident in both Lanthimos and Payne. The fifth spot is the wildcard. The Directors Guild went with Greta Gerwig for Barbie; that’s perfectly plausible, but the director’s branch at the Academy has nominated at least one non-English movie here for five straight years. (That statistic is probably more anecdotal than predictive, but I’m sticking with it for now.) Of course, there are three such films in the likely Best Picture field (assuming you count Past Lives), but I think Triet has the edge.
Potential upsets: Per my prior so-called logic, the obvious contenders are Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest and Celine Song for Past Lives.
Longshots: Emerald Fennell for Saltburn (only if it also lands at Best Picture); Michael Mann for Ferrari (nah); the directors of the other likely Best Picture nominees (Cord Jefferson for American Fiction, Bradley Cooper for Maestro).
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone—Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller—Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan—Maestro
Margot Robbie—Barbie
Emma Stone—Poor Things
Thoughts: I’m only matching 4-for-5 with the Screen Actors Guild, which ditched Hüller in favor of Annette Bening for Nyad. Maybe that’s foolish, but I’m ineffably sensing a groundswell of support for Anatomy of a Fall; I can’t say the same thing about Nyad.
Potential upsets: Bening, and maybe Greta Lee for Past Lives?
Longshots: Natalie Portman for May December (again, an accompanying Best Picture nomination is likely required); Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple (same); Cailee Spaeny for Priscilla (remember Priscilla?).
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper—Maestro
Colman Domingo—Rustin
Paul Giamatti—The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy—Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright—American Fiction
Thoughts: Straight match with SAG here. I’ve heard little buzz about Rustin outside of Domingo’s performance, but he’s shown up everywhere this season (BAFTAs, Golden Globes, etc.), so I think he’s on sturdy ground.
Potential upsets: In another era, Leonardo DiCaprio would be a lock for his strong performance in Killers of the Flower Moon, but the golden boy’s star has dimmed slightly over the years. If Saltburn accumulates unexpected momentum, everyone’s favorite sicko Barry Keoghan could show up here.
Longshots: Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers; Teo Yoo for Past Lives; Joaquin Phoenix for Napoleon (but really for Beau Is Afraid).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt—Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks—The Color Purple
Jodie Foster—Nyad
Julianne Moore—May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph—The Holdovers
Thoughts: This is where things start to get tricky. Randolph and Blunt are locks, but outside of that you have a handful of names competing for three spots. I don’t think May December will fare well with the Academy overall, but the acting branch always appreciates Moore (with good reason). You could say the same for Foster; it’s been awhile since she’s been around, and voters are likely to welcome her back. As for Brooks, well, maybe?
Potential upsets: Could Sandra Hüller really be nominated twice—in lead for Anatomy of a Fall, and in supporting for The Zone of Interest? (I refuse to investigate whether this has ever happened before.) Back in December, Penélope Cruz looked like a lock for Ferrari, and she still has the SAG nod. America Ferrera for Barbie seems like a stretch, but maybe her Big Speech will resonate?
Longshots: Rosamund Pike for Saltburn (surely not); Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (maybe if critics were voting); Claire Foy for All of Us Strangers (who knows?).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown—American Fiction
Willem Dafoe—Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr.—Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling—Barbie
Mark Ruffalo—Poor Things
Thoughts: Downey Jr. and Gosling are solid, but beyond that, good luck. Tabbing both Dafoe and Ruffalo for Poor Things may seem ill-advised, but the acting branch is no stranger to highlighting multiple supporting players from the same movie (they did so just last year for The Banshees of Inisherin), and both men are broadly admired. Brown has the SAG nod and delivers a funny, appealing performance that would seem up the Academy’s alley.
Potential upsets: Killers of the Flower Moon is arguably the co-favorite to win Best Picture at this point, so am I underrating it in other categories? If so, then Robert de Niro will show up here. I’m less concerned about lowballing The Holdovers, but if it picks up steam, then Dominic Sessa could join Giamatti. Charles Melton won raves for his work in May December, but he didn’t land at SAG or BAFTA, so I’m not convinced he has broad support.
Longshots: Jacob Elordi for Saltburn (some longshots are less long than others); Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers (can he build on his nomination last year for Aftersun?); Matt Damon for Oppenheimer (“Dry-clean this”).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall—Justine Triet, Arthur Harari
The Holdovers—David Hemingson
May December—Samy Burch
Past Lives—Celine Song
Saltburn—Emerald Fennell
Thoughts: This is a weirdly thin field this year, with most of the heavy hitters competing on the adapted side. The three likely Best Picture nominees are all solid. I’m less sold on May December and Saltburn, but…
Potential upsets: What’s going to replace them? The only possibility that comes to mind is Maestro, which I suspect will draw more attention for its performances and its craft than its writing.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction—Cord Jefferson
Barbie—Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
Killers of the Flower Moon—Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer—Christopher Nolan
Poor Things—Tony McNamara
Thoughts: Book this quintet. I’d bet your life savings on it.
Longshots: I suppose The Zone of Interest (have I mentioned that this movie hasn’t screened near me?).
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Barbie—Rodrigo Prieto
Killers of the Flower Moon—Rodrigo Prieto
Maestro—Matthew Libatique
Oppenheimer—Hoyte van Hoytema
Poor Things—Robbie Ryan
Thoughts: I’m quite confident in four of these. Barbie is the theoretical question mark, in part because it’s unclear whether the branch would be comfortable voting for Prieto twice. But come on, is the Academy really not going to nominate Barbie for its cinematography? Look at these colors!
Potential upsets: There are rumblings about El Conde, a black-and-white Netflix movie I’ve neglected to watch thus far. Can’t rule out The Zone of Interest either (grr).
Longshots: Maybe Saltburn? Napoleon?
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie—Jacqueline Durran
Killers of the Flower Moon—Jacqueline West
Napoleon—David Crossman, Janty Yates
Oppenheimer—Ellen Mirojnick
Poor Things—Holly Waddington
Thoughts: This is a straight match with BAFTA. Oppenheimer is the only one where I’m a little wary, but in the end, that movie is likely to rack up a ton of nominations.
Potential upsets: Ferrari? The Color Purple? Wonka???
BEST FILM EDITING
Barbie—Nick Houy
The Holdovers—Kevin Tent
Killers of the Flower Moon—Thelma Schoonmaker
Oppenheimer—Jennifer Lame
Poor Things—Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Thoughts: This could get ugly. It’s becoming increasingly unclear whether this category favors overall prestige versus technical muscularity. For now, I’m just highlighting what I perceive to be the five biggest Best Picture contenders overall (including two that run three-plus hours).
Potential upsets: Pick a different Best Picture nominee—Anatomy of a Fall, Maestro, American Fiction, etc. etc.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Killers of the Flower Moon—Robbie Robertson
Oppenheimer—Ludwig Göransson
Poor Things—Jerskin Fendrix
Society of the Snow—Michael Giacchino
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse—Daniel Pemberton
Thoughts: I feel good about four of these five. Society of the Snow is my wildcard, but Giacchino is well-liked at the Academy.
Potential upsets: Saltburn scored at BAFTA (get it?), so it’s the likeliest interloper. Academy fave Thomas Newman can’t be ruled out for Elemental.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Asteroid City—Adam Stockhausen
Barbie—Sarah Greenwood
Killers of the Flower Moon—Jack Fisk
Oppenheimer—Ruth De Jong
Poor Things—Shona Heath, James Price
Thoughts: Again, four of these are solid. Asteroid City is arguably a “heart over head” prediction, but, like, did you watch that movie?
Potential upsets: Maestro, Napoleon, Zone of Interest.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning, Part One
Society of the Snow
Thoughts: Remember, this has already been whittled down to a shortlist of 10. The other five contenders are Poor Things (too subtle), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (too animated), Napoleon (too practical), Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (too much de-aging), and Rebel Moon (too much Zack Snyder). Could I possibly go zero-for-five? It’s unlikely, but don’t count out my potential ineptitude.
That’s a wrap for now. We’ll be back tomorrow for some quickie analysis once the nominations are announced.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.