In ideal circumstances, the Oscar would crescendo to its biggest awards, concluding an eventful and surprising night with a final announcement that’s legitimately suspenseful. That ain’t happening this year. The Best Actress race is a corker, and both screenplay categories are coming down to the wire. But when it comes to the big prize, there isn’t a whole lot of mystery remaining.
To quote one of the best movies of 2023 (albeit not one nominated for Best Picture): such is life. Besides, just because the Academy has already made up its mind doesn’t prevent me from announcing my own preferences. I’m sure you’re excited.
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES
Jonathan Glazer—The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things
Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese—Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet—Anatomy of a Fall
WILL WIN
Nolan. Book it. It’s his time.
SHOULD WIN
I’m happy for Nolan and have no problem with him winning; he’s my second-favorite living filmmaker, and he’s spent the past two decades cranking out blockbusters that are sophisticated and intelligent and which also happen to be hugely entertaining. Still, I’m voting for Lanthimos. Poor Things is my favorite movie of the year, and Lanthimos shepherds it with a combination of rigorous control and relaxed confidence. It’s visually striking, it’s riotously funny, and it’s deeply affecting. Bravo.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Wes Anderson—Asteroid City
Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things
Christopher McQuarrie—Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part One
Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer
Celine Song—Past Lives
Anderson’s trademark fastidiousness pays considerable dividends. McQuarrie delivers the year’s most expertly choreographed action. Song uses fluid camerawork and tender silences to stop your heart.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things.
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
WILL WIN
I don’t think this is as big a lock as, say, Best Supporting Actress. Twist yourself into knots, and maybe you could make the long shot case for Poor Things or Anatomy of a Fall. But come on. Picking against Oppenheimer here would be like betting against Secretariat. There’s no point in pretending it isn’t a foregone conclusion.
SHOULD WIN
You might think, given that I’ve repeatedly identified Poor Things as my favorite movie of the year, that it would be my choice for Best Picture. But in our age of perpetual discourse, I’ve long since been wary of my personal preferences claiming the top prize at the Oscars, given that it’s destined to produce insufferable backlash. I want no part of that for Poor Things, and I definitely don’t want it for Past Lives, a beautifully delicate film whose gossamer construction isn’t meant to endure the frenetic mobilization of the Bad Take Industrial Complex.
You know what is big enough to withstand such manufactured handwringing? A three-hour epic about the invention of the atomic freaking bomb! Oppenheimer might not be my favorite Chris Nolan movie, but it’s a monumental achievement, and I’m confident that a Best Picture trophy won’t diminish its mammoth stature. Good job, Oscar voters!
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
This might be a good time to check out my list of the best movies of 2023.
That’s a wrap of our category-by-category analysis at the 96th Academy Awards. For the complete list of our predictions, click here; we’ll be back after the show to run through the winners.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.