Oscars 2020: Prediction Roundup

At long, long last, the 93rd Academy Awards are finally airing tonight. We’ve spent the past week running through our predictions and preferences in the 20 feature categories (sorry, I skipped the short subjects). For your handy convenience, here’s an omnibus post detailing all of our predictions, with links to more detailed analyses.

Curiously enough, even with Nomadland being the clear Best Picture frontrunner, I’m only predicting it to win three total Oscars; that’s the same number I’m predicting for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which didn’t even score a Best Picture nomination. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but we’ll see what happens!

Best Actor
Will win: Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Worst omission: Hugh Jackman—Bad Education

Best Actress
Will win: Viola Davis—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Frances McDormand—Nomadland
Worst omission: Anya Taylor-Joy—Emma

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Nomadland—Chloé Zhao (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Father—Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Worst omission: Unpregnant—Rachel Lee Goldenberg et al.

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Soul (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Soul

Best Cinematography
Will win: Mank—Erik Messerschmidt (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Mank—Erik Messerschmidt
Worst omission: Antebellum—Pedro Luque Briozzo

Best Costume Design
Will win: Emma (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Emma
Worst omission: I Care a Lot

Best Director
Will win: Chloé Zhao—Nomadland (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Emerald Fennell—Promising Young Woman
Worst omission: Autumn de Wilde—Emma

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Collective (confidence: 1/5)

Best Film Editing
Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7—Alan Baumgarten (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: The Father—Yorgos Lamprinos
Worst omission: Palm Springs—Andrew Dickler and Matthew Friedman

Best International Feature Film
Will win: Another Round (Denmark) (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Worst omission: Beanpole (Russia)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Emma

Best Original Score
Will win: Soul—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: News of the World—James Newton Howard
Worst omission: The Midnight Sky—Alexandre Desplat

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Promising Young Woman—Emerald Fennell (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Trial of the Chicago 7—Aaron Sorkin
Worst omission: Straight Up—James Sweeney

Best Original Song
Will win: “Speak Now”—Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr. (from One Night in Miami) (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: “Husavik”—Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus, and Savan Kotecha (from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)

Best Picture
Will win: Nomadland (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Promising Young Woman
Worst omission: Emma

Best Production Design
Will win: Mank (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Tenet
Worst omission: Vivarium

Best Sound
Will win: Sound of Metal (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya—Judas and the Black Messiah (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Sacha Baron Cohen—The Trial of the Chicago 7
Worst omission: Hugh Grant—The Gentlemen

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Youn Yuh-jung—Minari (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Amanda Seyfried—Mank
Worst omission: Gina Rodriguez—Kajillionaire

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Tenet (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Tenet
Worst omission: The Invisible Man