Best Picture

And here we are. Having previously analyzed the other 19 feature categories at this year’s Oscars, we’ve finally arrived at the big guns. For our prior posts, check out the following links:

The lead actors
The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
Spike Lee—BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay—Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War

WILL WIN
Cuarón. There’s a swelling narrative suggesting that Lee will finally avenge his 29-year-old loss to Driving Miss Daisy by defeating the director of Driving Miss Daisy: Bizarro Edition, aka Green Book. But given that Green Book’s director isn’t even nominated here, that theory doesn’t exactly make a ton of sense. Besides, while Driving Miss Daisy did win Best Picture, Lee didn’t really lose the Best Director race to it in 1989, as neither he nor Bruce Beresford was even nominated (Oliver Stone won for Born on the Fourth of July). So, yeah, that narrative is dumb. Besides, Cuarón won at the guild, and Roma is a technical marvel, so there’s no reason to bet against him here. Read More

In analyzing this year’s Oscars, we’ve already tackled 19 of the 21 feature categories in the following posts:

The little techies
The big techies
The supporting actors and the screenplays
The lead actors

Once more unto the breach:

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Paul Thomas Anderson—Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig—Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan—Dunkirk
Jordan Peele—Get Out
Read More

So far in our Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at the odds and ends, the big techies and screenplays, and the acting categories. Today, we’re wrapping things up with the two big prizes.

For a cheat sheet with all of our predictions, click here. Read More

And we’ve come to the end. So far in our Oscars analysis, the Manifesto has analyzed the technical categories (both big and small), the screenplays, the supporting actors, and the lead actors. Now, to wrap things up, we look at the two biggest awards of the night. Read More

And here we are. Thus far in the Manifesto’s Oscar analysis, we’ve looked at the technical categories, including the ones that really matter and the ones that matter a little less; the supporting actor and actress fields; the screenplays; and the lead actors. And now, we come to the two big ones. In a refreshing change of pace from the Oscars’ usual predictability, they’re two of the more uncertain awards of the night.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Wes Anderson—The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu—Birdman
Richard Linklater—Boyhood
Bennett Miller—Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum—The Imitation Game

WILL WIN
Given how much low-hanging fruit The Grand Budapest Hotel is likely to scoop up over the course of the evening, Anderson has a theoretical shot. But this is really a faceoff between Iñárritu and Linklater, the helmers of the two Best Picture favorites. As it result, it really comes to what Academy voters value in this category. The argument for Linklater is more conceptual than technical; there’s obviously never been a movie like Boyhood, and it took its director’s incredible vision to make it happen. But as recent wins for Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuarón and Life of Pi‘s Ang Lee suggest, the Best Director award is increasingly becoming tied to technical achievement. And as astonishing as Boyhood is in its scope and its storytelling, it’s fairly ordinary in its technical execution, whereas Birdman is a showy and dazzling piece of cinematic artistry. On that score, Iñárritu is the pick. (He also has the guild nod, which hardly hurts.)

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