Best Picture

And here we are. After a week spent analyzing 19 different feature categories at this year’s Oscars—including odds and ends, technical fields, supporting actors, lead performances, and screenplays—we’ve finally arrived at the big ones. Let’s get right to it.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Bong Joon-ho—Parasite
Sam Mendes—1917
Todd Phillips—Joker
Martin Scorsese—The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

WILL WIN
It used to be easy; whoever made the winner of Best Picture also won for Best Director. But the two categories have split as often as not in the past decade—five times in the past seven years, in fact—so now things are more complex. You can tie yourself into knots trying to locate points of synergy or disconnect between the two categories, but at this point, I’m partial to essentially ignoring the Best Picture lineup and analyzing the two fields independently. Read More

And here we are. Having previously analyzed the other 19 feature categories at this year’s Oscars, we’ve finally arrived at the big guns. For our prior posts, check out the following links:

The lead actors
The supporting actors
The screenplays
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
Spike Lee—BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay—Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War

WILL WIN
Cuarón. There’s a swelling narrative suggesting that Lee will finally avenge his 29-year-old loss to Driving Miss Daisy by defeating the director of Driving Miss Daisy: Bizarro Edition, aka Green Book. But given that Green Book’s director isn’t even nominated here, that theory doesn’t exactly make a ton of sense. Besides, while Driving Miss Daisy did win Best Picture, Lee didn’t really lose the Best Director race to it in 1989, as neither he nor Bruce Beresford was even nominated (Oliver Stone won for Born on the Fourth of July). So, yeah, that narrative is dumb. Besides, Cuarón won at the guild, and Roma is a technical marvel, so there’s no reason to bet against him here. Read More

In analyzing this year’s Oscars, we’ve already tackled 19 of the 21 feature categories in the following posts:

The little techies
The big techies
The supporting actors and the screenplays
The lead actors

Once more unto the breach:

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Paul Thomas Anderson—Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig—Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan—Dunkirk
Jordan Peele—Get Out
Read More

So far in our Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at the odds and ends, the big techies and screenplays, and the acting categories. Today, we’re wrapping things up with the two big prizes.

For a cheat sheet with all of our predictions, click here. Read More

And we’ve come to the end. So far in our Oscars analysis, the Manifesto has analyzed the technical categories (both big and small), the screenplays, the supporting actors, and the lead actors. Now, to wrap things up, we look at the two biggest awards of the night. Read More