Oscars 2021: Prediction Roundup

Over the past week, MovieManifesto has analyzed all 20 feature categories (sorry, short subjects, no offense intended) at this year’s Oscars. In the interest of service journalism, we’re compiling all of our predictions and preferences into this omnibus post. Click on the links to access our write-up for a particular category.

Best Actor
Will win: Will Smith—King Richard (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch—The Power of the Dog
Worst omission: Simon Rex—Red Rocket

Best Actress
Will win: Jessica Chastain—The Eyes of Tammy Faye (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Olivia Colman—The Lost Daughter
Worst omission: Rebecca Hall—The Night House

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: CODA—Siân Heder (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Power of the Dog—Jane Campion
Worst omission: The Last Duel—Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck, and Matt Damon

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Encanto (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Luca

Best Cinematography
Will win: Dune—Greig Fraser (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: West Side Story—Janusz Kaminski
Worst omission: Old—Mike Gioulakis

Best Costume Design
Will win: Cruella (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Cruella
Worst omission: Last Night in Soho

Best Director
Will win: Jane Campion—The Power of the Dog (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Steven Spielberg—West Side Story
Worst omission: Edgar Wright—Last Night in Soho

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Summer of Soul (confidence: 3/5)

Best Film Editing
Will win: Dune—Joe Walker (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Power of the Dog—Peter Sciberras
Worst omission: The French Dispatch—Andrew Weisblum

Best International Feature
Will win: Drive My Car (Japan) (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Drive My Car (Japan)
Worst omission: Undine (Germany)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Cruella
Worst omission: The Green Knight

Best Original Score
Will win: Dune—Hans Zimmer (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Power of the Dog—Jonny Greenwood
Worst omission: Cyrano—Bryce Dessner & Aaron Dessner

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Don’t Look Up—Adam McKay (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: The Worst Person in the World—Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
Worst omission: Nine Days—Edson Oda

Best Original Song
Will win: “No Time to Die”—Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (from No Time to Die) (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: “Dos Oruguitas”—Lin-Manuel Miranda (from Encanto)
Worst omission: “So May We Start”—Sparks (from Annette)

Best Picture
Will win: The Power of the Dog (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: West Side Story
Worst omission: The French Dispatch

Best Production Design
Will win: Nightmare Alley (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Nightmare Alley
Worst omission: The French Dispatch

Best Sound
Will win: Dune (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Dune
Worst omission: The Humans

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Troy Kotsur—CODA (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Kodi Smit-McPhee—The Power of the Dog
Worst omission: Vincent Lindon—Titane

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Ariana DeBose—West Side Story (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Ariana DeBose—West Side Story
Worst omission: Riley Keough—Zola

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Dune (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Dune
Worst omission: The Matrix Resurrections