The Oscars don’t matter. But the movies do.
That was the real takeaway of the 98th Academy Awards, an uneven ceremony that venerated some very good motion pictures. As a matter of celebratory choreography—as, y’know, an awards show—it was awfully bumpy. With the exception of Will Arnett and Channing Tatum, most of the paired presenters were dreadfully stiff, while the producers—perhaps traumatized by lingering memories of Adrien Brody a year ago—were unduly hasty in playing the winners off stage, especially for the below-the-line fields. The sound mix was clunky, some of the speeches felt obligatory, and a bunch of prearranged bits landed with a thud. It was far from the smoothest commemoration of the power of cinema.
But these Oscars were still, on the whole, a good time, in part because the movies they feted were so satisfying. It didn’t hurt that Conan O’Brien, in his second straight stint as host, was locked in from the jump, with an ingenious introduction—repurposing the rousing climax of Weapons into a rapid-fire tour through many of the nominated films—that led into a note-perfect monologue. O’Brien obviously knows how to work a crowd, but here he located just the right blend of good-natured sarcasm, political snark, and sincere admiration. He also delivered some pointed jabs about the industry’s future—roasting Netflix’s Ted Sarandos, castigating phone-cropped atrocities, teaming with Sterling K. Brown to mock the clumsy storytelling habits of the streaming era—without spoiling anyone’s fun.
Beyond that, even if the Academy Awards were ungainly, the Academy itself did a nice job. It honored the year’s best movie, One Battle Another, with six Oscars, but it also spread the wealth a bit, giving four trophies to One Battle’s biggest rival, Sinners—plus another three to Frankenstein, two to Netflix sensation KPop Demon Hunters, and one each to five others. Paul Thomas Anderson finally got off the schneid, art-house dramas and big-ticket blockbusters both scooped awards, and Best Cinematography went to a woman for the first time ever. History, of course, will judge the correctness of these selections, which is why the Oscars are both trivial and meaningful. They’re just one random set of collective preferences, but they also create a record of where things stand at the time. As you watched them, it was hard not to feel pretty good, even as they periodically reminded you that the broader world is engulfed in hell.
Per tradition, let’s run through the 21 feature awards in order of their presentation:
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted winner: Wunmi Mosaku—Sinners (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Teyana Taylor—One Battle After Another
Actual winner: Amy Madigan—Weapons
And our predictions are off to a strong start. In fact, it was a rough year for my prognostications overall, as I only went 14 for 21 (a measly 67%). You might think I’m bummed about this, but I actually take great pleasure in it; an unpredictable awards show is far more entertaining than one where every winner is preordained.
Best Animated Feature
Predicted winner: KPop Demon Hunters (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Actual winner: KPop Demon Hunters
As I mentioned, Arnett and Tatum were quite charming together; pity the rest of the show couldn’t replicate their repartee.
This was followed by a stupendous live rendition of Sinners’ “I Lied to You”—one of only two live performances on the night for a Best Original Song nominee. In the abstract, I can see the argument for playing all five, but I really didn’t need to see another rendition of a losing Diane Warren ditty.
Best Costume Design
Predicted winner: Frankenstein—Kate Hawley (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Frankenstein—Kate Hawley
Actual winner: Frankenstein—Kate Hawley
Good choice! Mia Goth in pretty dresses!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted winner: Frankenstein (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: The Ugly Stepsister
Actual winner: Frankenstein
Yeah sure Jacob Elordi sat in a makeup chair for 200 hours but did he make me literally cover my eyes the way The Ugly Stepsister did?
Best Casting
Predicted winner: Sinners (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: Marty Supreme
Actual winner: One Battle After Another
This was an early bellwether for One Battle’s nightlong success. Still not entirely sure what this award means, but I look forward to flailing for meaning in the years to come.
After this came Best Live Action Short, and bravo to Kumail Nanjiani for his solo presentation, especially his impromptu handling of the tie (“Ironic that the short film Oscar is going to take twice as long”). In contrast, boo to the conductor cutting off a heartfelt speech—one of many times it happened throughout the night. I get that ABC wants to keep things moving, but for winners that have multiple recipients, it just feels wrong to truncate things so severely. These people will probably never be on such a big stage again, give each of them their 45 seconds!
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted winner: Sean Penn—One Battle After Another (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Stellan Skarsgård—Sentimental Value
Actual winner: Sean Penn—One Battle After Another
Predictably, Penn didn’t show up. If this angers you, you might be taking the Oscars a bit too seriously.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted winner: One Battle After Another—Paul Thomas Anderson (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: One Battle After Another—Paul Thomas Anderson
Actual winner: One Battle After Another—Paul Thomas Anderson
Charming speech by Anderson. Also, I’m old enough to remember when Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans had chemistry together; presenting these awards, they somehow seemed like they’d never met before.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted winner: Sinners—Ryan Coogler (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Sentimental Value—Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Actual winner: Sinners—Ryan Coogler
Lovely speech by Coogler as well. With luck, he’ll be back on that stage before long.
After this came the “In Memoriam” segment, which was much longer than usual—and rightly so, given how many luminaries died in the past year. Barbra Streisand’s presentation was rough, but her singing of “The Way We Were” was quite poignant.
Best Production Design
Predicted winner: Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell
Actual winner: Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell
To borrow a line from Marty Supreme, Sigourney Weaver and Pedro Pascal could sell shoes to an amputee, so why the hell are they so awkward at the Oscars?
Best Visual Effects
Predicted winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Actual winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
I say once again: That’s “Academy Award winner Avatar: Fire and Ash” to you.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted winner: The Perfect Neighbor (confidence: 2/5)
Actual winner: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Serves me right for picking against a movie with “Putin” in its title. Also, the speeches for both this and Best Documentary Short were sharp and on point—a noticeable but valuable dose of real-world sobriety in an evening of spirited revelry.
Best Original Score
Predicted winner: Sinners—Ludwig Göransson (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Hamnet—Max Richter
Actual winner: Sinners—Ludwig Göransson
I like Bridesmaids well enough, and it was nice to see those five actors on stage together, but if you’re worried about the show running long, maybe trim cringeworthy overwritten bits like that instead of the winners’ speeches.
Best Sound
Predicted winner: F1 (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: Sinners
Actual winner: F1
Look at that, it’s Academy Award-winning motion picture F1! Dumb movie, but on the other hand, vroom vroom!
Best Film Editing
Predicted winner: F1—Stephen Mirrione (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: One Battle After Another—Andy Jurgensen
Actual winner: One Battle After Another—Andy Jurgensen
I like Bill Pullman, and I like Lewis Pullman, and I think that if my father and I had presented this Oscar while talking about our Strat-O-Matic Baseball league, we’d have been a bigger hit with the crowd.
Best Cinematography
Predicted winner: One Battle After Another—Michael Bauman (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Frankenstein—Dan Laustsen
Actual winner: Sinners—Autumn Durald Arkapaw
As I’ve said, my predictions were pretty spotty overall, but this was the only announcement of the night that truly floored me. Very happy for Durald Arkapaw’s history-making win, though.
Best International Feature
Predicted winner: The Secret Agent (Brazil) (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Actual winner: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Yes! I suspect this win will upset fans of The Secret Agent or It Was Just an Accident, but while I liked both of those films quite a bit, Sentimental Value was my second-favorite movie of the year, so I’m very happy to see it walk away with an Oscar. (It should’ve won at least three, but whatever.)
Best Original Song
Predicted winner: “Golden”—Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park (from KPop Demon Hunters) (confidence: 4/5)
Predicted winner: “Golden”—Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park (from KPop Demon Hunters)
I know that the Oscars are famously out of touch and unimportant and that nobody cares about them at all, but it was kinda cool to see Ejae seem legitimately overwhelmed by this win.
Best Director
Predicted winner: Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another
Actual winner: Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another
Another victory, another splendid speech from Anderson. He’s one of the good guys.
Best Actor
Predicted winner: Timothée Chalamet—Marty Supreme (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Leonardo DiCaprio—One Battle After Another
Actual winner: Michael B. Jordan—Sinners
First, respect to Adrien Brody for making fun of himself following last year’s debacle. Second, this was an absolutely loaded category, and I would’ve been happy to see anybody win. Jordan accepted with consummate grace.
Best Actress
Predicted winner: Jessie Buckley—Hamnet (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: Renate Reinsve—Sentimental Value
Actual winner: Jessie Buckley—Hamnet
Buckley might not have been my choice, but Hamnet is such a wonderful movie, I’m thrilled to see it win something. See, this is what’s neat about the Academy spreading things around!
Best Picture
Predicted winner: One Battle After Another (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Sinners (but really One Battle After Another)
Actual winner: One Battle After Another
The right choice. Typically I worry when my favorite movie of the year wins Best Picture, but I’m reasonably confident that One Battle After Another is sturdy enough to withstand any backlash. Besides, I love it, and that’s all that matters. The Oscar win is just gravy.
That’s all for this year’s Oscars. Thanks for tuning in, we’ll be back next week with our regularly scheduled review programming.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.