Yesterday, we analyzed eight different miscellaneous categories for the upcoming Oscars. Today, we’re keeping things below the line, but these five fields aren’t miscellany; they’re big-time. Let’s get to it.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES
Frankenstein—Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme—Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another—Michael Bauman
Sinners—Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams—Adolpho Veloso
WILL WIN
This is one of many categories that presents as a faceoff between the year’s two heavy hitters, One Battle After Another and Sinners—though I wouldn’t rule out a Train Dreams upset, given that film’s enveloping landscapes. Still, One Battle After Another is the safe pick here; it’s quite expansive itself, and that closing car chase is a virtuoso piece of camerawork.
SHOULD WIN
Am I allowed to say “anything but Marty Supreme”? It’s less visibly abrasive than Uncut Gems, but I still find its overall aesthetic displeasing. (To be clear, the movie is quite good.) In any event, this is an uninspired grouping overall—might the Academy have considered expanding beyond the list of Best Picture nominees?—but I’m taking Frankenstein, a visually sumptuous work that probably looked great on the big screen, if Netflix had only allowed me to watch it there. (This is called first-world bitterness.)
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Avatar: Fire and Ash—Russell Carpenter
No Other Choice—Kim Woo-hyung
The Phoenician Scheme—Bruno Delbonnel
Presence—Steven Soderbergh
Weapons—Larkin Seiple
It’s possible that the special effects of Avatar: Fire and Ash are so spectacular that voters didn’t realize there’s an actual camera operator involved. No Other Choice concocts images so inventive, I’m not sure how they exist. Every Wes Anderson movie should probably be nominated for every technical award. Presence is a heroically simple feat of filmmaking, one in which the roving camera becomes an emotive character. Weapons’ spine-tingling set pieces belie its silky craft.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Presence—Steven Soderbergh.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
NOMINEES
Avatar: Fire and Ash—Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein—Kate Hawley
Hamnet—Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme—Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners—Ruth E. Carter
WILL WIN
Frankenstein. Move along.
SHOULD WIN
Slightly better group here, even if it’s still fairly predictable (aside from the inspired Avatar nom). Still, I’ll follow the Academy and take Frankenstein because, like, did you see Mia Goth’s dresses?
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Black Bag—Sarah Bosshard and Ellen Mirojnick
Frankenstein—Kate Hawley
Hedda—Lindsay Pugh
On Swift Horses—Jeriana San Juan
100 Nights of Hero—Susie Coulthard
I’m picking Black Bag mostly for Michael Fassbender’s glasses. Hedda and 100 Nights of Hero both use period wardrobe to emphasize their themes about gender and class; both are also gorgeous. The outfits in On Swift Horses made me short of breath.
MovieManifesto’s winner: On Swift Horses—Jeriana San Juan.
BEST FILM EDITING
NOMINEES
F1—Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme—Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another—Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value—Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners—Michael P. Shawver
WILL WIN
OK, now we’ve got some intrigue. Each of the past three years, this award has gone to the Best Picture victor (Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer, and Anora). But for nine straight years before that, it went to a muscularly crafted Best Picture nominee that didn’t win the top prize (Gravity, Whiplash, Mad Max: Fury Road, Hacksaw Ridge, Dunkirk, Bohemian Rhapsody (lolz), Ford v Ferrari, Sound of Metal, and Dune). Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean that One Battle After Another and Sinners will split votes, because it’s not as though Academy members will be approaching this category by thinking, “OK, which of the two Best Picture favorites should I select in order to align with a burgeoning three-year trend?” But I do think their relative competitiveness will make room for F1, a technically vigorous movie—remember, a racing flick won here just six years ago—that happens to have no chance in hell at top-dog contention. Vroom vroom!
SHOULD WIN
One Battle After Another. Sure it’s long, but it’s expertly paced, its action scenes bustle with energy, and it handles its sprawling narrative with elegance and concision.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
No Other Choice—Kim Ho-bin and Kim Sang-beom
One Battle After Another—Andy Jurgensen
Relay—Matt Mayer
Splitsville—Sara Shaw
Weapons—Joe Murphy
No Other Choice conveys plotty information with wily flair. Relay makes brilliant use of its central conceit, wringing emotion from simple shots of people listening to disembodied voices. Splitsville has a stupendous montage that feels musical in its choreography. Weapons manipulates its time-bending narrative with clockwork precision.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Weapons—Joe Murphy.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
NOMINEES
Bugonia—Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein—Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet—Max Richter
One Battle After Another—Jonny Greenwood
Sinners—Ludwig Göransson
WILL WIN
When in doubt here, go with Most Music. That’s Sinners.
SHOULD WIN
Another slate full of Best Picture nominees, but I can’t really complain here, as several of these are on my own ballot. (Weirdly, the one nominee I struggle to support is One Battle After Another; Greenwood’s antic style just isn’t my thing.) But while Fendrix keeps you on edge and Desplat draws you inside, it’s Richter’s work for Hamnet that’s most striking—and not just because he drops “On the Nature of Daylight” in the climax.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Bugonia—Jerskin Fendrix
Hamnet—Max Richter
The Testament of Ann Lee—Daniel Blumberg
Train Dreams—Bryce Dessner
Tron: Ares—Nine Inch Nails
I’m unsure how much of Blumberg’s score is truly original, but the music of The Testament of Ann Lee is hypnotic regardless, and Dessner’s gentle work for Train Dreams is similarly immersive. As for Tron: Ares, its Nine Inch Nails score is the opposite of subtle; it’s also the best thing about the movie, full of thumping electronic charm.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Hamnet—Max Richter.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES
Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell
Hamnet—Fiona Crombie
Marty Supreme—Jack Fisk
One Battle After Another—Florencia Martin
Sinners—Hannah Beachler
WILL WIN
I’m not as confident here as I am with Costume Design, but I still think Frankenstein is in strong shape.
SHOULD WIN
And rightly so. Frankenstein isn’t a great movie—its storytelling is a bit too cautious—but it’s an exquisitely made one, so I’m fine with it landing multiple Oscars.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Avatar: Fire and Ash—Dylan Cole and Ben Procter
Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell
The Phoenician Scheme—Adam Stockhausen
28 Years Later—Carson McColl and Gareth Pugh
Wake Up Dead Man—Rick Heinrichs
Remember, the Avatar movies aren’t exclusively creatures of post-production; there’s an actual production first. The Phoenician Scheme is, again, a Wes Anderson film. 28 Years Later’s bone temple is so cool, they made a whole sequel about it. Wake Up Dead Man makes canny use of Catholic architecture.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell.
Coming tomorrow: the supporting actors and the screenplays.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.