Welcome to the Oscar categories you might actually be interested in! So far this week, we’ve analyzed some miscellaneous categories and some more robust technical fields. Now, we get to the good stuff—the supporting actor/actress races. Bonus points for both battles being somewhat competitive this year!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES
Benicio del Toro—One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi—Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo—Sinners
Sean Penn—One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård—Sentimental Value
WILL WIN
For most of the year this felt like del Toro’s race to lose, but then the actual awards started happening and his name never got called. Instead, the big winner thus far has been Penn, who claimed victory at both the Actor Awards (aka SAG) and the BAFTAs. His likeliest competition is Skarsgård, who won the Golden Globe; he’s a well-liked performer who’s never received an Oscar, whereas Penn already has two. But I used that logic the last time Penn was the favorite (in 2008 for Milk, when he defeated Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler), so I’m not getting burned by it again. The Academy just really likes giving trophies to Sean Penn, and I don’t see them stopping now. Penn takes it.
SHOULD WIN
I’d be very happy with del Toro winning, a quarter-century after his first Oscar (for Traffic). I’ve often found him to be a mercurial actor, but when he’s dialed in—as he was in both One Battle After Another and The Phoenician Scheme—he’s a wonderful presence, and his performance in One Battle is remarkably humane. But I’m picking Skarsgård, whose work in Sentimental Value is gloriously prickly, blending arrogance, frustration, and just the right tinge of decency. Terrific stuff. (And yes, he’s a co-lead who should’ve contended in Best Actor instead. Whatever, if the Academy can selectively ignore the word “supporting,” so can I.)
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Benicio Del Toro—One Battle After Another
Ralph Fiennes—28 Years Later
Kayo Martin—The Plague
Keanu Reeves—Good Fortune
Stellan Skarsgård—Sentimental Value
When Fiennes shows up in 28 Years Later, he radically changes the movie’s tone without ever raising his voice. Martin is the casual teenage bully of your long-repressed nightmares. Reeves is magnificently daffy, imbuing his angelic character with earthy charm.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Ralph Fiennes—28 Years Later.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
David Jonsson—The Long Walk
Noah Jupe—Hamnet
Benjamin Pajak—The Life of Chuck
Pedro Pascal—Materialists
Adam Sandler—Jay Kelly
Jonsson is a future star. Jupe and Pajak help the emotional third acts of their respective movies hit home. Pascal is the embodiment of careless entitlement. Sandler complements George Clooney’s charisma with aching, pitiful sweetness.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES
Elle Fanning—Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas—Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan—Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku—Sinners
Teyana Taylor—One Battle After Another
WILL WIN
Intriguing! Both of the Sentimental Value gals are out, but beyond that, this is anyone’s race. Madigan theoretically has momentum because she won at SAG (the most recent of the precursor awards), but Mosaku won the BAFTA and Taylor won the Golden Globe, so this is basically a three-sided coin flip. I’ll go with Mosaku. Why? Why not?
SHOULD WIN
Taylor. The rest of the field is fine, but her unapologetically electric portrayal of a morally clouded revolutionary is a cut above.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Oona Chaplin—Avatar: Fire and Ash
Kirsten Dunst—Roofman
Aisling Franciosi—Twinless
Ana Sophia Heger—She Rides Shotgun
Teyana Taylor—One Battle After Another
With her inimitable sneer, Chaplin lends the Avatar-verse a magnetic new villain. Dunst’s winsome vulnerability breaks my heart, while Franciosi’s gentle warmth heals it. Heger’s final scene will never leave my brain.
MovieManifesto’s winner: Kirsten Dunst—Roofman.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Ana de Armas—Eden
Zoey Deutch—Nouvelle Vague
Sally Hawkins—Bring Her Back
Chase Infiniti—One Battle After Another
Amy Madigan—Weapons
De Armas brings much-needed flair to Eden’s grim wilderness tale. Deutch is both immersive and playful. Hawkins, much like Madigan, isn’t kidding around. Infiniti gives me hope for the future.
Coming later today: The screenplays.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.