Oscars 2025: The Odds and Ends

Behold, it’s the Oscars! And an unusually competitive Oscars at that! Over the next week, we’ll be analyzing the 21 feature categories (no offense, shorts), discussing our predictions and preferences. Am I deeply invested in who will or should win any particular Academy Award? Not really. But the Oscars still matter, in both a commercial and historical sense, and it remains meaningful to think about them, even if just as an excuse to complain about them.

Today we’ll be running through eight miscellaneous categories—the kind that can make or break your pool (are Oscar pools still a thing?). Let’s get to it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

WILL WIN
Did you know that Zootopia 2 was the biggest domestic hit of 2025? It somehow made more money than Minecraft, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and Superman. But the Oscars are less about financial success than cultural saturation, and no animated film was a bigger phenomenon last year than KPop Demon Hunters—a movie whose presence was so pervasive, Netflix even allowed it to appear in theaters for a few days. That’s a real breakthrough.

SHOULD WIN
The three contenders here that I’ve seen (neither Arco or Little Amélie played near me) are all pleasant, even if none is especially memorable. Elio is the definition of minor Pixar—well-made, affirming, and never approaching the imaginative heights of the studio’s classics. Zootopia 2 is a solid enough sequel, but it too lacks the verve and the insight of its predecessor. KPop Demon Hunters is hardly shattering, but it’s a very appealing movie with solid characters, crisp visuals, and earwormy songs. Good enough.

BEST CASTING

NOMINEES
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners

WILL WIN
Hey look, a new category! This means that it’s a predictive nightmare, as it’s unclear exactly what “Best Casting” is supposed to mean, or how Academy members will interpret it. Is it designed to reward the most talented overall ensemble? Should it center on the most inspired and unusual casting decisions? Is it about the major stars or the supporting roles? Ultimately, I suspect voters will just pick the movie they liked most that also features the biggest cast, which means this race likely comes down to Sinners versus One Battle After Another. I’ll go with Sinners.

SHOULD WIN
Not being bound by Academy rules—as opposed to voters, who surely adhere to the guidelines with scriptural reverence—I’m free to construe this category however I please. And I’m essentially perceiving it as the most interesting casting—the film that makes the riskiest and most intriguing choices. By that measure, the clear winner here is Marty Supreme, which casts a dude from Shark Tank as its main villain (Kevin O’Leary), brings back a former star from the brink of obsolescence (Gwyneth Paltrow), and dots its ensemble with random athletes and celebrities (George Gervin, David Mamet, and many more). They’re not all great, but they’re definitely distinctive.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Black Bag
Eephus
A House of Dynamite
Marty Supreme
The Plague

Black Bag surrounds its glamorous stars (Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender) with a precise assortment of sexy supporting players. Eephus brings in a bunch of random dudes whose anonymity is crucial to the film’s elegiac quality. A House of Dynamite is a giddy game of Character Actor Roulette that also turns Gabriel freaking Basso into an engaging presence. The Plague is a horrifically realistic reenactment of your summer-camp nightmares.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Marty Supreme.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

NOMINEES
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor

WILL WIN
This appears to be a two-horse race between Mr. Nobody Against Putin and The Perfect Neighbor. It’s tempting to pick the former just because “Putin” appears in its title, but The Perfect Neighbor seems to have a greater quantity of that unquantifiable buzz.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

NOMINEES
It Was Just an Accident (France)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirāt (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

WILL WIN
I’m not ruling out It Was Just an Accident, but this is likely a battle between two Best Picture nominees: Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. The former was a bigger overall hit with the Academy (nine total nominations versus four), and a healthy chunk of it takes place in English, which might perversely help it here. But I’m taking The Secret Agent, a more politically resonant picture that’s likely to strike a chord with a broader swath of voters.

SHOULD WIN
The three of these that I’ve seen—and hey AMC theaters, feel free to screen Sirāt or The Voice of Hind Rajab near me at any time—are all quite good. The Secret Agent is thorny and unsettling, while It Was Just an Accident is a hauntingly suspenseful thriller that also doubles as a black hangout comedy (not to mention a wry satire). But I’m taking Sentimental Value, a richly rewarding movie whose many themes—about art, family, history, and more—work in tandem with its sharply drawn characters.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
It Was Just an Accident (France)
Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan)
No Other Choice (South Korea)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)

Left-Handed Girl (co-written by Sean Beaker!), the beautifully intimate story of a family trying to scrape by, is both heartbreaking and heartwarming. No Other Choice is less dazzling than most Park Chan-wook movies, which means it’s only 85% amazing.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Sentimental Value.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

NOMINEES
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister

WILL WIN
Frankenstein. Move along.

SHOULD WIN
The makeup work in Frankenstein is impressive, but it didn’t make me hold my breath and shut my eyes the way The Ugly Stepsister did.

SHOULD BE HERE
Come on, Academy, you’re really gonna nominate Amy Madigan for Weapons but not recognize her incredible wig?

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

NOMINEES
“Dear Me”—Diane Warren (from Diane Warren: Relentless)
“Golden”—Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park (from KPop Demon Hunters)
“I Lied to You”—Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson (from Sinners)
“Sweet Dreams of Joy”—Nicholas Pike (from Viva Verdi!)
“Train Dreams”—Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner (from Train Dreams)

WILL WIN
There’s an infinitesimal chance that “I Lied to You” pulls the upset here—and if that happens, you can book Sinners to win roughly 13 total Oscars. But it’s foolish to pick anything but “Golden.”

SHOULD BE HERE
Eligibility technicalities be damned, any slate that doesn’t include “Hunger and Thirst” from The Testament of Ann Lee is a sham.

BEST SOUND

NOMINEES
 F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt

WILL WIN
F1, because vroom vroom!

SHOULD WIN
Sinners.

SHOULD BE HERE
Did you people not see Warfare? Because that shit was loud.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

NOMINEES
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners

WILL WIN
Is there some sort of universe where Academy voters get sick of voting for Avatar in this category and thus instead pick F1, an actual Best Picture nominee (even though Fire and Ash is actually a much better movie)? I doubt it.

SHOULD WIN
That’s “Academy Award winner Avatar: Fire and Ash” to you.

SHOULD BE HERE
Someday my girl M3gan will get the credit she deserves. Also, not sure if the Academy realized that Elle Fanning didn’t actually cut off her legs in Predator: Badlands.

We’ll be back tomorrow with The Big Techies.