Tomorrow morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce its nominations for their 98th awards. This will not be the most meaningful news item of the day, nor will it be the one most likely to flood you with rage; even the most devoted Best Original Song fetishists are sure to be more infuriated by real-world developments. In our era of state-sponsored terror campaigns and plotted territorial invasions, the annual ritual of complaining about the Oscars—the boringly safe choices, the bias and entrenchment, the so-called “snubs”—is less cathartic than quaint.
This doesn’t mean that the movies are a distraction; they’re the whole point. In the American utopia—i.e., the opposite of our current political moment—people spend far too much time getting far too angry about far too many dumb Academy choices. If we stop kvetching about the Oscars—which, despite my annual complaints, typically honor films that are at least pretty good—then evil has already won.
And so I carry on. Here are my predictions for 13 different major categories at this year’s Oscars:
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Thoughts: Four relative locks here: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Sinners. That leaves six more slots, which provides plenty of uncertainty, even if the number of plausible competitors is weirdly low. I’m reasonably confident in Sentimental Value, along with both Frankenstein and Train Dreams—assuming voters aren’t gripped by anti-Netflix bias. Bugonia doesn’t strike me as your typical Oscar movie, but it keeps showing up on the circuit (it scored nominations at both the Producers Guild and the Golden Globes), so I guess it’s in. I’m going double-international for my last two picks with It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent, which is probably a mistake, but I just can’t bring myself to instead predict…
Potential upsets: …F1? Seriously? I like the Brad Pitt vehicle fine, and I know it landed at the PGA, but that seems to be a function of, “Let’s pick a money-maker that isn’t a sequel/IP.” Does the Academy operate by similar logic? (In fairness to the PGA, they also picked Weapons, a banger of a horror movie that I don’t think has a chance in hell here.) A more traditional option is Blue Moon, but that feels more like an actors’/writers’ movie than a true contender. The first two Avatar pictures both nabbed Best Picture noms, but buzz seems noticeably cooler for Fire and Ash.
Longshots: Wicked: For Good (if this makes it and Avatar doesn’t I will lose my mind); Sirât (hey Neon, feel free to screen this at my AMC any time); Song Sung Blue (cute, but no); Jay Kelly (seems like Netflix is throwing its weight behind Frankenstein and Train Dreams); Nuremberg (don’t be ridiculous).
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler—Sinners
Guillermo del Toro—Frankenstein
Joachim Trier—Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao—Hamnet
Thoughts: Anderson and Coogler are locks, and Zhao is on decently solid ground. Otherwise, good luck. This branch like to skew toward international filmmakers, but that’s of minimal help here with so many foreign-born directors in the fray. I’ll go with del Toro’s muscularity and Trier’s lacerating anti-Hollywood whimsy.
Potential upsets: The most obvious interloper here is Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, a frenetic movie that is, if nothing else, quite vigorously directed. (He showed up at the DGA in lieu of Trier.) Otherwise, pick the maker of your potential Best Picture nom: Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident, Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent, etc.
Longshots: Clint Bentley for Train Dreams (nobody seems to be mentioning him specifically); Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (never rule out Yorgos); Richard Linklater for Blue Moon (too visually staid); Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice (if he didn’t make it for Decision to Leave, hard to see voters honoring him now).
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley—Hamnet
Rose Byrne—If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti—One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve—Sentimental Value
Emma Stone—Bugonia
Thoughts: Buckley and Byrne are in. Stone is beloved, and if Bugonia lands a Best Picture nom, it’s hard to see her missing here. Infiniti could be the rare victim of reverse category fraud—she’s essentially a supporting player who’s being pushed as a lead to avoid cannibalizing Teyana Taylor’s supporting campaign—but I think One Battle’s coattails are long enough for her to make it. Reinsve is a total dart throw.
Potential upsets: I might be more confident about picking Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee if I could see the damn movie (it’s finally expanding to me on Friday). People have said nice things about Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue. Tessa Thompson is good in Hedda, but that one strikes me as a streaming casualty.
Longshots: Jennifer Lawrence for Die My Love (too prickly); Kathleen Chalfant for Familiar Touch (would be cool!); Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good (no).
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet—Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio—One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke—Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan—Sinners
Wagner Moura—The Secret Agent
Thoughts: This quintet seems pretty solid. The only one I’m not confident in is Moura, but if The Secret Agent cracks the Best Picture field, he’s virtually guaranteed to show up here.
Potential upsets: Either Jesse Plemons (for Bugonia) or Joel Edgerton (for Train Dreams) could sneak in, though I suspect that Plemons is too off-putting and Edgerton is too restrained.
Longshots: Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein (most of the attention is being paid to his costar); Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine (nah).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Odessa A’zion—Marty Supreme
Elle Fanning—Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan—Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku—Sinners
Teyana Taylor—One Battle After Another
Thoughts: And so we shift from sturdy confidence to abject insecurity. Taylor is a lock, but otherwise I’m kind of clueless here. A’zion seems to be popping up, Fanning could ride a strong showing from Sentimental Value, and Madigan showed up at both SAG and the Globes, so they all make sense, I guess? As for Mosaku… maybe?
Potential upsets: I suppose I need to acknowledge that Ariana Grande has decent odds of landing here for Wicked: For Good. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas might replace Fanning for Sentimental Value (hard to see both of them getting in).
Longshots: Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine (love her, but this is a career-worst performance); Emily Watson for Hamnet (nah).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro—One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi—Frankenstein
Paul Mescal—Hamnet
Sean Penn—One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård—Sentimental Value
Thoughts: Mescal and Skarsgård are both category-fraud beneficiaries, but whatever, that’s how the system works. I just deemed it unlikely that both Fanning and Lilleaas could score noms for Sentimental Value, but One Battle is a different beast, so I think Penn slots in alongside del Toro. Elordi is one big dude.
Potential upsets: Either Miles Caton or Delroy Lindo could show up for Sinners, though vote-splitting is obviously a concern.
Longshots: William H. Macy for Train Dreams (maybe if the movie had stronger momentum); Andrew Scott for Blue Moon (eh); Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly (after missing for Uncut Gems, not sure it’s ever gonna happen for the Sand man).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Blue Moon—Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident—Jafar Panahi
Marty Supreme—Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
Sentimental Value—Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
Sinners—Ryan Coogler
Thoughts: My general rule with screenplay predictions is to just track the Best Picture field where possible. The exception here is for Blue Moon, a dialogue-heavy film whose verbosity should help it in this category.
Potential upsets: If I’m following my Best Picture logic, then The Secret Agent could show up here.
Longshots: Weapons (too scary); Sorry Baby (too gloomy); Jay Kelly (too Clooney-y).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia—Will Tracy
Frankenstein—Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet—Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another—Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams—Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Thoughts: Remember what I said about tracking likely Best Picture nominees?
Potential upsets: I’m open to suggestions.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein—Dan Laustsen
Hamnet—Łukasz Żal
One Battle After Another—Michael Bauman
Sinners—Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams—Adolpho Veloso
Thoughts: I’m mostly tracking the guild here, but I’m swapping in Hamnet for Marty Supreme because one of them has beautiful landscapes and the other one has New Jersey.
Potential upsets: Aside from Marty Supreme, F1 has a decent chance of crashing the party here. (I know the big prize has double the number of slots, but voting for that movie in Best Picture and not in Best Cinematography seems kinda weird.)
Longshots: Is Avatar: Fire and Ash really just getting a single nomination for Best Visual Effects? We’re all just OK with this?
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein—Kate Hawley
Hamnet—Malgosia Turzanska
One Battle After Another—Colleen Atwood
Sinners—Ruth E. Carter
Wicked: For Good—Paul Tazewell
Thoughts: As handsome period pieces, Frankenstein, Hamnet, and Sinners are all in decent shape here. I will allow one (1) Oscar nomination for Wicked: For Good. I’m picking One Battle here because, I dunno, didn’t lots of people dress like Leo for Halloween?
Potential upsets: There was allegedly a third Downton Abbey movie this year. I’ve heard The Testament of Ann Lee has cool costumes—will find out on Friday if that’s true!
BEST FILM EDITING
F1—Stephen Mirrione
Frankenstein—Evan Schiff
Marty Supreme—Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
One Battle After Another—Andy Jurgensen
Sinners—Michael P. Shawver
Thoughts: I feel good about four of these, including F1, whose robust racing scenes should play well in this category. I’m less confident in Marty Supreme, but I don’t see anything dethroning it.
Potential upsets: I really wanted to pick Weapons here, given its scrambled chronology, but I don’t see it happening.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frankenstein—Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet—Max Richter
One Battle After Another—Jonny Greenwood
Sinners—Ludwig Göransson
Train Dreams—Bryce Dessner
Thoughts: It’s so boring, picking five likely Best Picture nominees here, but that’s just how things seem to be shaking out this year.
Potential upsets: Don’t rule out Bugonia. Also I’ve heard buzz about the score for Sirât, but it’s quite difficult to predict that when nobody will let me see the movie.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
F1—Ben Munro and Mark Tildesley
Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell
Hamnet—Fiona Crombie
Sinners—Hannah Beachler
Wicked: For Good—Nathan Crowley
Thoughts: Three safe picks here (Frankenstein, Hamnet, Sinners), followed by two big-budget wildcards.
Potential upsets: Does anyone remember The Phoenician Scheme and how much it ruled? Does anyone realize that Wake Up Dead Man is a real movie and not just a diversion you can watch on Netflix while doing the dishes?
That’s it for now. We’ll be back on Friday for some quickie analysis, followed by a more detailed breakdown the week of the big show.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.