Good is bad at the Oscars, at least when it comes to predictions. Gamblers and number-crunchers might be pleased about successfully prognosticating the Academy’s latest slate of honorees. But for those of us who prefer chaos to clarity—who hope that voters might mix in some genuine curveballs alongside all of their safe choices—a high hit rate is less cause for celebration than resignation. Oh, look, the Oscars nominated a bunch of movies everyone expected them to nominate. Again.
Not that this year’s slate of nominees provided a ton to complain about. The Academy’s picks may have been predictable, but they were hardly terrible; for the most part, voters nominated a bunch of good movies, good actors, and good artisans. They also highlighted a handful of foreign features and non-white performers. And they gave two nominations to Avatar: Fire and Ash and zero to Wicked: For Good. It could’ve been worse.
And with that vibrant endorsement, let’s run through the 13 categories I previously predicted, with some quickie analysis of the races as they currently stand:
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train DreamsIt Was Just an Accident F1
Analysis: Look, I get the logic behind F1 landing a Best Picture nomination. It’s the exact type of film the Academy used to treasure, and whose existence has grown increasingly endangered: a big-budget, nominally original crowd-pleaser, with a true movie star in the lead. We should make more of these! We should also make them better than F1, a reasonably diverting production with thin characters and a tiresome story. It has no real business being called one of the 10 best pictures of the year. But hey, if its nomination somehow turns Kerry Condon into an A-lister, it was worth it.
Current favorite: For the past several months, One Battle After Another has been operating as the clear front-runner. Maybe it still is, but from a pure quantitative perspective, it’s hard to ignore Sinners, which racked up a whopping 16 nominations—shattering the prior record of 14 (previously held by La La Land, Titanic, and All About Eve). I don’t think this makes Sinners the favorite—Academy history is full of heavily nominated films that didn’t win Best Picture, and besides, One Battle landed 13 nods itself—but it’s notable enough that we can’t just proclaim One Battle the winner right now.
Glaring omission: It Was Just an Accident. Voters didn’t entirely ignore Jafar Panahi’s searing (and blackly funny) political thriller—it showed up in both Original Screenplay and International Feature—but with its mesmerizing combination of white-knuckle tension and bleak social comedy, it deserved to compete for the top prize.
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson—One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler—Sinners
Joachim Trier—Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao—HamnetGuillermo del Toro—Frankenstein Josh Safdie—Marty Supreme
Analysis: It’s hardly surprising that Safdie landed here, though my eyebrow moved a bit upon seeing that it was del Toro, not Trier, who missed out.
Current favorite: Anderson. Coogler obviously can’t be ruled out, but Anderson has been showing up at the Oscars for over a quarter-century—seriously, his first nomination was in 1997 (for Boogie Nights)—and he’s never once taken home a statuette. That changes this year.
Glaring omission: Wes Anderson—The Phoenician Scheme. Oh look, Wes Anderson made a marvelously constructed, fiendishly entertaining movie, and it didn’t land a single Oscar nomination, the first time that’s happened since… Asteroid City. At least before that it hadn’t happened since… The French Dispatch. I give up.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley—Hamnet
Rose Byrne—If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Renate Reinsve—Sentimental Value
Emma Stone—BugoniaChase Infiniti—One Battle After Another Kate Hudson—Song Sung Blue
Analysis: Whoa, Kate Hudson! She won’t end up on my ballot, but I sort of admire her inclusion for Song Sung Blue, where she gives a performance that’s sweet and emotional but also relatively restrained. There have been worse Oscar surprises.
Current favorite: Buckley, though I’m not ruling out Byrne.
Glaring omission: Jennifer Lawrence—Die My Love. Lynne Ramsay’s dyspeptic maternal melodrama was surely too roiling for the Academy’s tastes (and, at times, for mine), but Lawrence’s fearlessly agitated performance is undeniable.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet—Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio—One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke—Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan—Sinners
Wagner Moura—The Secret Agent
Analysis: No surprises here, which would be a bummer if all of these performances weren’t kind of awesome.
Current favorite: Probably Hawke, just because he plays a real guy and also does a physical and vocal transformation. But Chalamet is in the mix.
Mildly annoying omission: Robert Pattinson—Mickey 17. We don’t use the word “snub” here; with so much acting talent working today, whittling lists down to five will invariably give short shrift to plenty of qualified performers. Still, Jordan didn’t give the only impressive twin portrayal this year; Dylan O’Brien is very good in Twinless, and Pattinson is even better in Mickey 17, leveraging his natural charisma in new, twitchy ways.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning—Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan—Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku—Sinners
Teyana Taylor—One Battle After AnotherOdessa A’zion—Marty Supreme Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas—Sentimental Value
Analysis: I wasn’t sure whether Fanning or Lilleaas would land here; turns out, the Academy went with both. In fact, all four stars of Sentimental Value earned nominations, yet the movie itself didn’t show up in the new category of Best Casting, which… well, let’s just say I remain unclear on what that award is supposed to be.
Current favorite: Taylor, though maybe Madigan could pull an upset if the Weapons hive makes some noise. (They can hardly channel their energy elsewhere, given that this was the movie’s lone nomination.)
Glaring omission: Kirsten Dunst—Roofman. She’s tender, she’s charming, she’s heartbreaking. Come to think of it, if the Academy really wanted to highlight a star-driven genre film in Best Picture, couldn’t it have gone with Roofman instead of F1? Sure, F1 made literally $600 million more worldwide, but that’s not the movie’s fault.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro—One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi—Frankenstein
Sean Penn—One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård—Sentimental ValuePaul Mescal—Hamnet Delroy Lindo—Sinners
Analysis: To me, Mescal missing for Hamnet was the single biggest shock of the entire slate. That he was pipped by Lindo is a pleasant surprise, and not just because the latter’s performance is legitimately supporting rather than a co-lead. (For what it’s worth, I think Mescal’s superior 2025 turn came in The History of Sound.)
Current favorite: Del Toro, but who knows, maybe Skarsgård makes a push.
Glaring omission: Ralph Fiennes—28 Years Later. Madigan’s nomination notwithstanding, horror rarely gets its due at the Oscars, but Fiennes’ brilliant and touching performance deserves recognition for how it steers Danny Boyle’s bonkers apocalyptic thriller into a different, more elegiac register.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Blue Moon—Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident—Jafar Panahi
Marty Supreme—Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
Sentimental Value—Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
Sinners—Ryan Coogler
Analysis: Well well well, look who knows his screenplay predictions.
Current favorite: To quote Jodie Comer in Killing Eve, I have absolutely no idea.
Glaring omission: Twinless—James Sweeney. This movie defies easy classification, and Sweeney’s screenplay navigates its genre-bending turns adroitly while also delivering sharp, spiky dialogue.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia—Will Tracy
Frankenstein—Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet—Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another—Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams—Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Analysis: Honestly, it’d be easier for me to gloat about acing this category if all five of the nominees weren’t also Best Picture selections.
Current favorite: One Battle, with Train Dreams lurking.
Glaring omission: No Other Choice—Park Chan-wook et al. Park’s wild thriller is so provocative, it’s easy to miss the elegance of its construction.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein—Dan Laustsen
One Battle After Another—Michael Bauman
Sinners—Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams—Adolpho VelosoHamnet—Łukasz Żal Marty Supreme—Darius Khondji
Analysis: In general, Marty Supreme performed slightly better than I expected below the line, suggesting that voters embraced its aggressive technique. (Meanwhile, The Smashing Machine, directed by Safdie’s brother, earned a single nomination for Best Makeup.)
Current favorite: Frankenstein, I’d expect.
Glaring omission: Presence—Steven Soderbergh. The camera is a character in Soderbergh’s minimalist thriller, and it’s operated with both expert skill and confounding tenderness.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein—Kate Hawley
Hamnet—Malgosia Turzanska
Sinners—Ruth E. CarterOne Battle After Another—Colleen Atwood Avatar: Fire and Ash—Deborah L. ScottWicked: For Good—Paul Tazewell Marty Supreme—Miyako Bellizzi
Analysis: Neato, an Avatar nomination outside of Best Visual Effects! Also, this is one of two categories where I missed multiple nominees. For the record, my total hit rate was 83% (58 of 70), which is solid but unspectacular.
Current favorite: Let’s go with Frankenstein again.
Glaring omission: On Swift Horses—Jeriana San Juan. Daisy Edgar-Jones wears multiple outfits in this movie that basically made me pass out.
BEST FILM EDITING
F1—Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme—Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
One Battle After Another—Andy Jurgensen
Sinners—Michael P. ShawverFrankenstein—Evan Schiff Sentimental Value—Olivier Bugge Coutté
Analysis: I am surprised but not displeased by Sentimental Value showing up here, given its delicate nested structure.
Current favorite: Is this where the Academy rewards Sinners? I genuinely have no idea if that movie is going to win 10-plus Oscars or be shut out entirely.
Glaring omission: Splitsville—Sara Shaw. Comedies rarely show up in this category (or at the Oscars in general), but some of the montages in this movie are downright exhilarating.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frankenstein—Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet—Max Richter
One Battle After Another—Jonny Greenwood
Sinners—Ludwig GöranssonTrain Dreams—Bryce Dessner Bugonia—Jerskin Fendrix
Analysis: Picking Fendrix, good! Ignoring Dessner, bad!
Current favorite: OK, Sinners is probably on solid ground here.
Glaring omission: Tron: Ares—Nine Inch Nails. The movie may be dumb, but its thumping electronic soundtrack is a banger from start to finish.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein—Tamara Deverell
Hamnet—Fiona Crombie
Sinners—Hannah BeachlerF1—Ben Munro and Mark Tildesley Marty Supreme—Jack FiskWicked: For Good—Nathan Crowley One Battle After Another
Analysis: And here’s the other category where I whiffed on multiple selections. Marty Supreme burns me again!
Current favorite: Fuck it, I’m taking Frankenstein again. It has a chance to be the Dune of this year’s Oscars—winning a bunch of craft awards while not sniffing recognition in the top categories. (Other examples include Gravity, The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum, and Mad Max: Fury Road.)
Glaring omission: The Phoenician Scheme—Adam Stockhausen. I try not to double up on movies in my “omission” picks, but the whimsical, magical sets of The Phoenician Scheme demand an exception.
That’s all for now. We’ll be back the week of the show in March for category-specific breakdowns and (more importantly) my own ballots in each field.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.